The Nemenof Report - Bonds Steady, Grains Lower, Dollar Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 04 March 2010

Financials: June Bonds are currently 1 higher at 117’11. Resistance remains in the 118’00 area. I continue to prefer the short side of the market. If you establish a short position consider selling an out of the money put three strike prices below the market as a way of collecting some premium and also providing some protection against adverse price movement. This morning’s non-farm productivity report showed an increase of 6.9% versus expectations of 6.5%. Weekly jobless claims were 469,000, down by 29,000. The market had little reaction to these numbers.

Grains: Yesterday May. Beans closed 1 lower, Corn 5 higher and Wheat 11 higher. Over night Beans were 6 lower, Corn 3 lower and Wheat 6 lower. Support and resistance in May Corn is currently 368’0 to 391’0. Treat as a trading market. Support and resistance for May Beans is currently 935’0 to 984’0. I favor the long side of the market on a break to support. The May Beans 880’0/1000’0 strangle closed at 26’4. I will take profits this week at 21’0 if the market allows.

Cattle: Yesterday Apr. Cattle closed 12 higher at 92.90. We currently have no Cattle positions. Yesterday open interest went down 5,000+ in the Apr and up 2,600+ in June and 1300+ in Aug. Over all open interest went up by 611. As mentioned earlier in the week I expect a large amount of “rolling” of positions from Apr. into the deferred contracts over the next 2 weeks. Spreaders take note. A firm live and dressed beef market is establishing support below the market. I am not yet ready to go long as I feel the market is a bit ahead of itself, but will be watching for buying opportunities on a sharp break.

Silver: May Silver is currently 5 cents lower at 17.30. Those holding long positions should consider taking partial profits. We remain long out of the money call spreads in the July contract.

S&P’s: Mar. S&P’s are currently 1.00 higher at 1119.50. We remain long out of the money June puts as portfolio insurance.

Currencies: As of this writing the Mar. Euro is 54 lower at 1.3647, the Swiss 38 lower at .9327, the Yen 83 lower at 1.1231 and the Pound 11 higher at 1.5104. The market is still concerned over the debt situation in Greece, Spain, Portugal, etc. The Mar. Dollar Index is currently 25 higher at 80.26. I remain long out of money puts and/or put spreads in the June Yen. I will be a seller in the June Euro above the 1.3800 level if the market allows.

Regards,
Marc

Marc Nemenoff
312.264.4310
mnemenoff@pricegroup.com
www.pricegroup.com

Bio
Marc Nemenoff is a 37-year veteran of the futures industry. While attending graduate school at the Illinois Institute of Technology, Marc took a job as a clerk on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for Tabor Grain Co. He quickly found that his background in both math and problem solving techniques were adaptable to the futures markets as well as the career he had been pursuing in Architecture and Urban Planning. Having decided on a career change he quickly rose within the Tabor Grain Co. organization and became their analyst and operations manager for all products traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

In 1976 Mr. Nemenoff's responsibilities increased when he was granted full membership on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as Tabor Grain Co's. representative to the exchange. He was their head analyst and liaison to all branch offices. In addition, he was in charge of designing hedging strategies in both the livestock and financial sectors of the market, and writing the firms daily and weekly market letters.

In 1980 Mr. Nemenoff purchased his own membership on the C.M.E. and spent the next 12 years as an independent trader, trading in all markets with a concentration in live cattle as a spreader and market maker. As a member of the exchange he served on many committees including, Live Cattle, Nominating, Contributions, Public Relations and Advertising, and Orientation and Education. During this time he gave speeches to various groups at the behest of the exchange. These included, Agricultural Bankers, The National Cattleman's Assoc., various groups on the Role of the Market Maker, and various groups on the Role of Futures as a Risk Management Tool.

In 1991 Marc left the floor and spent his time as an independent trader and lecturer giving speeches at seminars on various topics. These included Livestock Trading, Interest Rate Futures, Spreads, Technical Analysis, and trading in the pit vs. being an outside speculator. He also taught classes as a guest lecturer at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Spreading, Technical Analysis, and Commodity Options.

Since 2004 Marc has been an Associated Person handling customer accounts for both speculators and hedgers. Marc has also been author of the Nemenoff Report, a daily overview of the markets adding his own perspective on market direction.

Since 2002 Marc has been a Board member of Art Encounter, an Evanston, IL.. non- profit organization, specializing in the visual arts and providing community outreach programs, such as art classes for people of all ages with special needs. Marc has been President of Art Encounter since 2009.

Mr. Nemenoff describes his approach to the market as 75% technical and 25% fundamental. He is also a firm believer in the use of option strategies as a way of using leverage and minimizing risk when one has a long-term market strategy.

Disclaimer
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