Bonds Lower, Grains Steady, S&P’s Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 02 March 2010

Financials: June Bonds are currently are currently 17 lower at 116’30. Stronger equities due to better than expected profits in the technology sector have taken some of the buying out of the interest rate sector. The possibility of a bailout program to refinance Greek debt and institution of a plan to reduce budget deficits as a percentage of GNP has tempered the “flight to quality”. I still favor the short side of this market on rallies. The 118’00 level remains long term resistance at this moment in time. If you go short this market, consider selling an out of the money put about 3 strike prices below your short position as a way of collecting some premium and also providing some protection against adverse price movement.

Grains: Yesterday May Beans closed 1 higher, Corn 7 lower and Wheat 13 lower. Over night Beans were unchanged, Corn fractionally higher and Wheat fractionally higher. I still favor the long side of these markets on a sharp break. The May Beans 880’0/1000’0 strangle closed at 28’4 cents. For the near term I have an objective of 21’0 cents for this trade and will take the profit this week if my objective is reached.

Cattle: Yesterday Apr. Cattle closed 20 lower at 91.72. If you remain short, either take profits or continue to use a protective buy stop at your break even level. Something to note: The open interest on the Apr. contract is currently 137,481. Over the next three to four weeks I suspect that there will be a movement in open interest of nearly 100,000 contracts into both the June and Aug. contracts. The bulk of this movement should be initiated by “Index Funds” which are always long the market and will need to sell the nearby month to avoid a delivery situation and buy the deferred contracts. This should put pressure on the Apr. contract in relation to the Jun. and Aug. Keep an eye on the Apr. / June spread for opportunities in spread positions.

Silver: As of this writing the May Silver is currently 15 cents higher at 16.61. The market is once again approaching resistance in the 16.80 to 17.00 area. If you are long the market, consider taking at least partial profits if the market allows. We remain long out of the money call spreads on the July contract.

S&P’s: Mar. S&P’s are currently 5.50 higher at 1120.00. Near term resistance of 1111.00 was penetrated yesterday. I recommend covering short futures positions and taking the short term loss. I continue to recommend being long out of the money puts as portfolio insurance.

Currencies: As of this writing the Mar. Euro is 8 higher at 1.3583, the Swiss 9 higher at .9286, the Yen 6 lower at 1.1224 and the Pound 34 lower at 1.4974. The Mar. Dollar Index is currently 5 lower at 80.66. I continue to recommend the June Yen 1.07/1.02 put spread.

Regards,
Marc

Marc Nemenoff
312.264.4310
mnemenoff@pricegroup.com
www.pricegroup.com

Bio
Marc Nemenoff is a 37-year veteran of the futures industry. While attending graduate school at the Illinois Institute of Technology, Marc took a job as a clerk on the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for Tabor Grain Co. He quickly found that his background in both math and problem solving techniques were adaptable to the futures markets as well as the career he had been pursuing in Architecture and Urban Planning. Having decided on a career change he quickly rose within the Tabor Grain Co. organization and became their analyst and operations manager for all products traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

In 1976 Mr. Nemenoff's responsibilities increased when he was granted full membership on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as Tabor Grain Co's. representative to the exchange. He was their head analyst and liaison to all branch offices. In addition, he was in charge of designing hedging strategies in both the livestock and financial sectors of the market, and writing the firms daily and weekly market letters.

In 1980 Mr. Nemenoff purchased his own membership on the C.M.E. and spent the next 12 years as an independent trader, trading in all markets with a concentration in live cattle as a spreader and market maker. As a member of the exchange he served on many committees including, Live Cattle, Nominating, Contributions, Public Relations and Advertising, and Orientation and Education. During this time he gave speeches to various groups at the behest of the exchange. These included, Agricultural Bankers, The National Cattleman's Assoc., various groups on the Role of the Market Maker, and various groups on the Role of Futures as a Risk Management Tool.

In 1991 Marc left the floor and spent his time as an independent trader and lecturer giving speeches at seminars on various topics. These included Livestock Trading, Interest Rate Futures, Spreads, Technical Analysis, and trading in the pit vs. being an outside speculator. He also taught classes as a guest lecturer at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Spreading, Technical Analysis, and Commodity Options.

Since 2004 Marc has been an Associated Person handling customer accounts for both speculators and hedgers. Marc has also been author of the Nemenoff Report, a daily overview of the markets adding his own perspective on market direction.

Since 2002 Marc has been a Board member of Art Encounter, an Evanston, IL.. non- profit organization, specializing in the visual arts and providing community outreach programs, such as art classes for people of all ages with special needs. Marc has been President of Art Encounter since 2009.

Mr. Nemenoff describes his approach to the market as 75% technical and 25% fundamental. He is also a firm believer in the use of option strategies as a way of using leverage and minimizing risk when one has a long-term market strategy.

Disclaimer
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. The Price Futures Group, Inc., its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options