 When Irish Bonds Are Crying
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 08 September 2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Remember the European financial crisis? Sure you do! You remember I know you do. It was when Greece looked like it hit the skids and it appeared they were headed for default! And worries surrounded countries with the acronym PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) were ready to go over the edge! The stock market was crashing and oil prices were plunging and it looked like we were getting ready for a major global market meltdown. ... read more The Energy Report - When Irish Bonds Are Crying
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 08 September 2010
Remember the European financial crisis? Sure you do! You remember I know you do. It was when Greece looked like it hit the skids and it appeared they were headed for default! And worries surrounded countries with the acronym PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) were ready to go over the edge! The stock market was crashing and oil prices were plunging and it looked like we were getting ready for a major global market meltdown. But then when all was nearly lost, ... read more The Energy Report - Demand Jam
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 07 September 2010
Will disappointing holiday demand be the story or will a new wave of economic optimism generated by last week’s better than expected jobs report make the headlines? Companies did add more jobs than expected as non-farm private payrolls actually rose by 67,000. Forget that Chicken Little maybe the sky isn’t falling after all but with jobs still far from a pace that will get us back to normal I don’t think that there is reason to celebrate. I think the market may slip into a negative mode. Did the Labor Day holiday bail us out on the demand side? ... read more Demand Jam
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 07 September 2010
Will disappointing holiday demand be the story or will a new wave of economic optimism generated by last week’s better than expected jobs report make the headlines? Companies did add more jobs than expected as non-farm private payrolls actually rose by 67,000. Forget that Chicken Little maybe the sky isn’t falling after all but with jobs still far from a pace that will get us back to normal I don’t think that there is reason to celebrate. I think the market may slip into a negative mode. Did the Labor Day holiday bail us out on the demand side? ... read more Welcome To September!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 03 September 2010
The Energy Report for Friday, September 3, 2010
Forget all of that economic doom and gloom because that was so August! September has come and hope is rising. Maybe, just maybe, things were not as bad as it seemed and maybe having total petroleum supplies at all time highs really does not matter. You see in a world where the Fed always has your back it might be wise to not get to pessimistic. Remember the Fed has the printing press and they have promised to use it if needed. Of course oil had other scares to worry about. ... read more The Energy Report - Welcome To September!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 03 September 2010
Forget all of that economic doom and gloom because that was so August! September has come and hope is rising. Maybe, just maybe, things were not as bad as it seemed and maybe having total petroleum supplies at all time highs really does not matter. You see in a world where the Fed always has your back it might be wise to not get to pessimistic. Remember the Fed has the printing press and they have promised to use it if needed. Of course oil had other scares to worry about. ... read more ISM Into The Wild Blue Yonder Flying High Into The Sky
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 02 September 2010
The Energy Report for Thursday, September 2, 2010
Where the heck did that come from? The Institute for Supply Management gave the market just what the doctor ordered with a shocking good reading on manufacturing. Why was it so shocking?
Well some of the regional manufacturing reports like the Philly Fed and the Empire State numbers were so lousy. Maybe the Chicago Purchasing Manger report should have given a clue but instead of lousy we go the first increase in four months with an expansive jump to 56.3, ... read more The Energy Report - ISM Into The Wild Blue Yonder Flying High Into The Sky
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 02 September 2010
Where the heck did that come from? The Institute for Supply Management gave the market just what the doctor ordered with a shocking good reading on manufacturing. Why was it so shocking?
Well some of the regional manufacturing reports like the Philly Fed and the Empire State numbers were so lousy. Maybe the Chicago Purchasing Manger report should have given a clue but instead of lousy we go the first increase in four months with an expansive jump to 56.3, ... read more Earl, The Grinch That Stole Labor Day
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 01 September 2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Earl, the Grinch that Stole Labor Day. All of the Who’s down in Whoville may be safe but it seems Hurricane Earl is bent on washing out and stealing their Labor Day fun! The holiday weekend may wash away for many states up and down the East coast. As Hurricane Earl barrels down it will bring a crashing end to the summer gasoline demand season that was already not up to par with market expectations. ... read more The Energy Report - Earl, The Grinch That Stole Labor Day
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 01 September 2010
Earl, the Grinch that Stole Labor Day. All of the Who’s down in Whoville may be safe but it seems Hurricane Earl is bent on washing out and stealing their Labor Day fun! The holiday weekend may wash away for many states up and down the East coast. As Hurricane Earl barrels down it will bring a crashing end to the summer gasoline demand season that was already not up to par with market expectations. ... read more The Energy Report - The Hurricane Threat!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 31 August 2010
The Hurricane Threat! Many oil traders when they think about the impact of hurricanes on the oil market most often focus on the threat to supply. Yet the truth is more often than not hurricanes are more of a threat to demand then they are to supply. That is definitely the case when it comes to Hurricane Earl, not to mention tropical storm Fiona, Hurricane Danielle and a storm to be named later. Earl in particular could do major demand destruction as its path is perilously close to the East Coast. ... read more The Hurricane Threat!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 31 August 2010
The Energy Report for Tuesday, August 31, 2010
The Hurricane Threat! Many oil traders when they think about the impact of hurricanes on the oil market most often focus on the threat to supply. Yet the truth is more often than not hurricanes are more of a threat to demand then they are to supply. That is definitely the case when it comes to Hurricane Earl, not to mention tropical storm Fiona, Hurricane Danielle and a storm to be named later. ... read more Big Bad Ben!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 30 August 2010
The Energy Report for Monday, August 30, 2010
Big Bad Ben! Commodity bears be on notice: Ben is coming to run that big bad deflation out of town. Ben Bernanke has made it clear that the Fed will step up if prices go down. Those words should bring comfort to commodity bulls that have been under assault from an array of weakening economic indicators. That worn out song “for an extended period” may change to "forever and a life time" and the Fed stands at the ready by the printing presses ready to print at a moment’s notice if price fall too far. ... read more The Energy Report - Big Bad Ben!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 30 August 2010
Big Bad Ben! Commodity bears be on notice: Ben is coming to run that big bad deflation out of town. Ben Bernanke has made it clear that the Fed will step up if prices go down. Those words should bring comfort to commodity bulls that have been under assault from an array of weakening economic indicators. That worn out song “for an extended period” may change to "forever and a life time" and the Fed stands at the ready by the printing presses ready to print at a moment’s notice if price fall too far. ... read more When Bad News Becomes Good News
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 26 August 2010
The Energy Report for Thursday, August 26, 2010
When bad news becomes good news: Oh sure the economic data did not get any better. New homes sales were a disaster and the Energy Information Agency report was very bearish yet the good news is that a lot of the bad news was already priced in. Now doesn’t that make you feel better? Yes things are lousy but as bad as they are at this point in time we actually priced in that things were even worse! Yippee!! Time to celebrate! Forget that doom and gloom of Tuesday. Now its doom and zoom as the market tries to tell itself hey nothing can be that bad! Can it? Well I hate to be a bummer but it can. ... read more The Energy Report - When Bad News Becomes Good News
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 26 August 2010
When bad news becomes good news: Oh sure the economic data did not get any better. New homes sales were a disaster and the Energy Information Agency report was very bearish yet the good news is that a lot of the bad news was already priced in. Now doesn’t that make you feel better? Yes things are lousy but as bad as they are at this point in time we actually priced in that things were even worse! Yippee!! Time to celebrate! Forget that doom and gloom of Tuesday. Now its doom and zoom as the market tries to tell itself hey nothing can be that bad! Can it? Well I hate to be a bummer but it can. ... read more The Energy Report - Still We Look To Find A Reason To Believe
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 25 August 2010
Still we look to find a reason to believe. If I listened long enough to you, a bullish case I guess you could make do, knowing that supplies are high worldwide. Still I look to find a reason to believe. The bulls need something to believe in as a plunge in existing homes sales is another dagger in the heart of the bullish case.
The drop caught many by surprise as the existing home sales hit the lowest level since 1995 and fell by a whopping 27.2%.
The stock market and oil market already rattled about recent economic happenings, had a hard time shaking off the number as the mood turned gloomy. ... read more Still We Look To Find A Reason To Believe
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 25 August 2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Still we look to find a reason to believe. If I listened long enough to you, a bullish case I guess you could make do, knowing that supplies are high worldwide. Still I look to find a reason to believe. The bulls need something to believe in as a plunge in existing homes sales is another dagger in the heart of the bullish case.
The drop caught many by surprise as the existing home sales hit the lowest level since 1995 and fell by a whopping 27.2%. ... read more Dancing With Wolves
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 24 August 2010
The Energy Report for Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Dancing with wolves: You know every once in a while someone defines what you have been trying to say and does it a way that is clear and concise and in terms so clear that you have to say yes, that is exactly what I have been trying to say. For months I have been telling you that despite the fact that I am long term bearish on oil I felt the better way to play this market was not to be married to either a dogmatically bull or bear position but to take advantage of the ranges. I said don’t be a hero, oil is making wide swings. ... read more The Energy Report - Dancing With Wolves
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 24 August 2010
Dancing with wolves: You know every once in a while someone defines what you have been trying to say and does it a way that is clear and concise and in terms so clear that you have to say yes, that is exactly what I have been trying to say. For months I have been telling you that despite the fact that I am long term bearish on oil I felt the better way to play this market was not to be married to either a dogmatically bull or bear position but to take advantage of the ranges. I said don’t be a hero, oil is making wide swings. ... read more The Energy Report - All The News That Did Not Happen
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 23 August 2010
I guess before we start to talk about all news that might drive energy trading, let’s talk about the factors that many of you thought might drive the market this week but did not. I heard from some that they thought that this weekend Israel would bomb Iran’s nuclear sites. Did not happen.
Others were worried that the market would be impacted by what is now tropical storm Danielle. ... read more All The News That Did Not Happen
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 23 August 2010
The Energy Report for Monday, August 23, 2010
I guess before we start to talk about all news that might drive energy trading, let’s talk about the factors that many of you thought might drive the market this week but did not. I heard from some that they thought that this weekend Israel would bomb Iran’s nuclear sites. Did not happen.
Others were worried that the market would be impacted by what is now tropical storm Danielle. ... read more The Energy Report - Slip Sliding Away, Slip Sliding Away
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 20 August 2010
Slip sliding away, slip sliding away. You know the nearer your destination the more you're slip sliding away and away we go. The economic recovery is slip sliding away as the market starts to brace for a potential double dip as US data goes sour. When the jobless claims came out much higher than expected and the Philly Fed flopped, instead of an economic recovery being nearer to its destination, the more it's slip sliding away. Weekly claims rose by 12,000 to 500,000 and the Philly Fed went into the abyss falling to minus 7.7 for August contracting for the first time since July 2009. ... read more Slip Sliding Away, Slip Sliding Away
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 20 August 2010
The Energy Report for Friday, August 20, 2010
Slip sliding away, slip sliding away. You know the nearer your destination the more you're slip sliding away and away we go. The economic recovery is slip sliding away as the market starts to brace for a potential double dip as US data goes sour. When the jobless claims came out much higher than expected and the Philly Fed flopped, instead of an economic recovery being nearer to its destination, the more it's slip sliding away. ... read more The Energy Report - A 27 Year High
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 19 August 2010
A 27 year high. Sure oil prices and petroleum prices rebounded after the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency week over week numbers we not quite as bearish as the American Petroleum Institute report. And yes, oil rebounded as the stock market became positive. Yet there was something lost when we looked at only the daily factors. Did anyone step back and ponder that the total U.S. inventory of oil and all petroleum products hit a 27 year high according to the EIA?
Now just stop and think where the price of oil was 27 years ago and what kind of world we lived in 1983. ... read more The Energy Report - A 27 Year High
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 19 August 2010
The Energy Report for Thursday, August 19, 2010
A 27 year high. Sure oil prices and petroleum prices rebounded after the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency week over week numbers we not quite as bearish as the American Petroleum Institute report. And yes, oil rebounded as the stock market became positive. Yet there was something lost when we looked at only the daily factors. Did anyone step back and ponder that the total U.S. inventory of oil and all petroleum products hit a 27 year high according to the EIA? ... read more The Energy Report - One Hundred Barrels Of Oil On The Wall
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 18 August 2010
One hundred barrels of oil on the wall, one hundred barrels of oil. You take one down and pass it around and um, now you have, hum, oops! I lost track. Remember that old sing song we sang on the school bus that when on and on until you just lost count! Well that’s kind of like our recent inventory reports.
Take the American Petroleum Institute report that showed that US crude supply surged by a whopping 5.87 million barrels. ... read more One Hundred Barrels Of Oil On The Wall
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 18 August 2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, August 18, 2010
One hundred barrels of oil on the wall, one hundred barrels of oil. You take one down and pass it around and um, now you have, hum, oops! I lost track. Remember that old sing song we sang on the school bus that when on and on until you just lost count! Well that’s kind of like our recent inventory reports.
Take the American Petroleum Institute report that showed that US crude supply surged by a whopping 5.87 million barrels. ... read more Fear Versus Reality
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 17 August 2010
The Energy Report for Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Last the Federal Reserve lowered their expectations for economic growth and let the world know that it was going to reinvest its cash from maturing mortgage debt holdings into treasuries, keeping the size of its balance sheet stable and avoiding what could have been perceived as a tightening of monetary policy. Somehow the market panicked over this. We saw the markets react with fear and the trade went to risk aversion mode. ... read more The Energy Report - Fear Versus Reality
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 17 August 2010
Last the Federal Reserve lowered their expectations for economic growth and let the world know that it was going to reinvest its cash from maturing mortgage debt holdings into treasuries, keeping the size of its balance sheet stable and avoiding what could have been perceived as a tightening of monetary policy. Somehow the market panicked over this. We saw the markets react with fear and the trade went to risk aversion mode. At first the commodities rallied and the dollar broke as the market felt that the reinvestment, ... read more As Oil Prices Hit The Lowest Levels Since July 19th
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 16 August 2010
The Energy Report for Monday, August 16, 2010
As oil prices hit the lowest levels since July 19th people are starting to realize something I have been saying for a very long time and that is, the price of oil is not acting on its own but is being driven by outside macro-economic forces. I have said time and time again that the price of oil really has been acting as a pawn in the economic recovery and is being driven in large part by economic forces. When the Fed prints more money and the dollar falls and the stock market rises then oil rallies. ... read more The Energy Report - As Oil Prices Hit The Lowest Levels Since July 19th
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 16 August 2010
As oil prices hit the lowest levels since July 19th people are starting to realize something I have been saying for a very long time and that is, the price of oil is not acting on its own but is being driven by outside macro-economic forces. I have said time and time again that the price of oil really has been acting as a pawn in the economic recovery and is being driven in large part by economic forces. When the Fed prints more money and the dollar falls and the stock market rises then oil rallies. ... read more The Energy Report - 19th Market Breakdown
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 13 August 2010
The Energy Report for Friday, August 13, 2010
Ben’s the kind of person you meet at certain dismal, dull affairs, center of the crowd, talking much too, stirring' up the bulls and the bears. Well it seems to me that you have seen too much in too few years and though you try you just can't hide your eyes are edged with fears, you better stop and look around, here it comes, here it comes, here it comes, here it comes, here comes your 19th market breakdown. ... read more The Energy Report - 19th Market Breakdown
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 13 August 2010
Ben’s the kind of person you meet at certain dismal, dull affairs, center of the crowd, talking much too, stirring' up the bulls and the bears. Well it seems to me that you have seen too much in too few years and though you try you just can't hide your eyes are edged with fears, you better stop and look around, here it comes, here it comes, here it comes, here it comes, here comes your 19th market breakdown.
Oh, who's to blame, that market's just insane? Well nothing Ben does don't seem to work It only seems to make matters worse. ... read more Peg Through My Heart!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 12 August 2010
The Energy Report for Thursday, August 12, 2010
Peg through my heart! The Chinese central bank worried about a sharp slowdown as the country took steps to reignite their softening export market. The Peoples Bank of China, according to the Wall Street Journal, set the dollar-yuan central parity rate at a seven-week high following the U.S. dollar's broad strength against most major currencies overnight amid concerns about a weakening global economic recovery. ... read more The Energy Report - Peg Through My Heart!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 12 August 2010
Peg through my heart! The Chinese central bank worried about a sharp slowdown as the country took steps to reignite their softening export market. The Peoples Bank of China, according to the Wall Street Journal, set the dollar-yuan central parity rate at a seven-week high following the U.S. dollar's broad strength against most major currencies overnight amid concerns about a weakening global economic recovery. The move had the yuan drop sharply against other major currencies and may draw attention from China’s critics that the move will give China a continued unfair trade advantage. ... read more You Don’t Belive We Are On The Eve Of Demand Destruction
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 11 August 2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Tell me over and over and over again my friend! You don’t belive we are on the eve of demand destruction! The last time I honored the 1965 Barry Maguire classic “Eve of Destruction”, oil was hurling towards $147 a barrel and I said that there is no way that this rapid rise would not cause demand destruction and damage to the economy. What followed was the biggest drop in demand in the history of the global oil markets. ... read more You Don’t Belive We Are On The Eve Of Demand Destruction
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 11 August 2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Tell me over and over and over again my friend! You don’t belive we are on the eve of demand destruction! The last time I honored the 1965 Barry Maguire classic “Eve of Destruction”, oil was hurling towards $147 a barrel and I said that there is no way that this rapid rise would not cause demand destruction and damage to the economy. What followed was the biggest drop in demand in the history of the global oil markets. ... read more If At First You Don't Succeed, Try, Try Again!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 10 August 2010
The Energy Report for Tuesday, August 10, 2010
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again! It’s Fed Day and the global energy markets are waiting to find out whether or not the Fed is going to boost the markets with another shot of quantitative easing. Speculation is swirling that the Fed, desperate to knock the malaise out of the economy, will double down on its policy and flood the economy with even more printed money. ... read more The Energy Report - If At First You Don't Succeed, Try, Try Again!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 10 August 2010
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again! It’s Fed Day and the global energy markets are waiting to find out whether or not the Fed is going to boost the markets with another shot of quantitative easing. Speculation is swirling that the Fed, desperate to knock the malaise out of the economy, will double down on its policy and flood the economy with even more printed money. This is a far cry from expectations just a few weeks ago when the Fed was widely expected to reduce their balance sheet as they were set to collect 100 to 180 billion dollars in profit from its Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) it took over in the heat of the financial crisis. ... read more What Is The Poor Fed Going To Do Now?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 09 August 2010
The Energy Report Monday August 9, 2010
What is the poor Fed going to do now? Despite the Fed best efforts the Jobs report was a dismal reminder that the economy and commodity prices still need some help. As nonfarm payrolls fell by a larger-than-expected 131,000 last month the odds that the FED instead of reducing its balance sheet and hang onto some of that paper money that they created out of thin air will instead begin to reinvest that money or put it back out in the market place. The goal is to try to inspire some type of economic enterprise. ... read more The Energy Report - What Is The Poor Fed Going To Do Now?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 09 August 2010
What is the poor Fed going to do now? Despite the Fed best efforts the Jobs report was a dismal reminder that the economy and commodity prices still need some help. As nonfarm payrolls fell by a larger-than-expected 131,000 last month the odds that the FED instead of reducing its balance sheet and hang onto some of that paper money that they created out of thin air will instead begin to reinvest that money or put it back out in the market place. ... read more Oil, Wheat, And Global Economic Games
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 06 August 2010
The Energy Report for Friday, August 6, 2010
Are you looking for an exit strategy from the historic amount of economic stimulus and quantitative easing that has dominated global stock and commodity markets? Well look no further than Europe. While we here in the United States are raising the possibility of more quantitative easing and more ways to stimulate the economy, the President of the European Central Bank Jean Claude Trichet is sending signals he is looking for a way out. Yes, I know. It’s crazy! ... read more The Energy Report - Oil, Wheat, And Global Economic Games
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 06 August 2010
Are you looking for an exit strategy from the historic amount of economic stimulus and quantitative easing that has dominated global stock and commodity markets? Well look no further than Europe. While we here in the United States are raising the possibility of more quantitative easing and more ways to stimulate the economy, the President of the European Central Bank Jean Claude Trichet is sending signals he is looking for a way out. Yes, I know. It’s crazy!
The EU and its three freaking pillars were on the verge of crumbling into pillars of dust just months ago. ... read more Feeling The Heat
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 05 August 2010
The Energy Report Thursday August 5, 2010
Feeling the Heat, despite the weak dollar and a mixed Energy Information Agency report oil bulls are still feeling the heat of heavy global supply. As Mark Shenk at Bloomberg News pointed out we have record oil stockpiles in the Midwest or Padd2 and that is “reducing the premium traders will pay for later deliveries amid signs that fuel demand may be ebbing as the pace of the economic recovery slows. ... read more The Energy Report - Feeling The Heat
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 05 August 2010
Feeling the Heat, despite the weak dollar and a mixed Energy Information Agency report oil bulls are still feeling the heat of heavy global supply. As Mark Shenk at Bloomberg News pointed out we have record oil stockpiles in the Midwest or Padd2 and that is “reducing the premium traders will pay for later deliveries amid signs that fuel demand may be ebbing as the pace of the economic recovery slows. Bloomberg says that “Inventories in the 15-state region that includes Illinois rose to 97.7 million barrels in the week ended July 30, the highest level recorded since the data started in 1990, according to an Energy Department report yesterday. ... read more Quantitative Ease Off
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 04 August 2010
The Energy Report Wednesday August 4, 2010
The Petroleum markets took a bit of a breather after surging the first few days in August on rising speculation that the Fed worried about anemic Job Growth and a less then sustainable rate of economic activity will revisit the nuclear option and print more money to get the economy moving again. The Wall Street Journal added to this speculation by raising the possibility that the Fed may reinvest the cash it receives when its mortgage-bond holdings mature and buy new mortgage or Treasury bonds, ... read more The Energy Report - Quantitative Ease Off
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 04 August 2010
The Petroleum markets took a bit of a breather after surging the first few days in August on rising speculation that the Fed worried about anemic Job Growth and a less then sustainable rate of economic activity will revisit the nuclear option and print more money to get the economy moving again. The Wall Street Journal added to this speculation by raising the possibility that the Fed may reinvest the cash it receives when its mortgage-bond holdings mature and buy new mortgage or Treasury bonds, ... read more Buy Commodities Now And Ask Questions Later
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 03 August 2010
The Energy Report Tuesday August 3, 2010
Buy Commodities now and Ask Questions Later. Theirs is not to reason why just get in there and buy-buy-buy. Commodity prices rocketed as fund money comes plowing back in the futures markets. And I do not want to hear one person whine that speculators are driving the markets despite the so called bearish supply and demand fundamentals. The Fundamentals are quite clear! If the economy gets worse the Fed is going to print more money! ... read more The Energy Report - Buy Commodities Now And Ask Questions Later
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 03 August 2010
Buy Commodities now and Ask Questions Later. Theirs is not to reason why just get in there and buy-buy-buy. Commodity prices rocketed as fund money comes plowing back in the futures markets. And I do not want to hear one person whine that speculators are driving the markets despite the so called bearish supply and demand fundamentals. The Fundamentals are quite clear! If the economy gets worse the Fed is going to print more money! If the economy gets better well then that is inflationary because supply will tighten driving up prices! ... read more Re-Inflation
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 02 August 2010
The Energy Report for Monday, August 2, 2010
More soft economic data and more talk of quantitative easing have commodity markets on fire. Forget about that supply and demand stuff as that is going to be secondary to the financial hedge play that is starting to unfold. Commodities are rising even after it was reported that manufacturing in China contracted for the first time in 16 months. The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in July showing contraction falling from 50.4 in June. ... read more The Energy Report - Re-Inflation
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 02 August 2010
More soft economic data and more talk of quantitative easing have commodity markets on fire. Forget about that supply and demand stuff as that is going to be secondary to the financial hedge play that is starting to unfold. Commodities are rising even after it was reported that manufacturing in China contracted for the first time in 16 months. The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in July showing contraction falling from 50.4 in June. Yet despite that weakness, the dollar takes a drubbing and despite the potential for weaker demand, ... read more Did Deflation Fears Help Rally The Oil Market?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 30 July 2010
The Energy Report Friday July 30, 2010
Did Deflation fears help rally the oil market? Oil prices popped as the dollar index dropped hitting the lowest level since last April. The market seems convinced that the Euro zones problems are behind us so it appears that the carry commodity trade is back in play but could we see more problems up ahead?. Of course while the dollar has been trending lower and the Euro higher is this a sign that we are headed for a bought of commodity price inflation or are the markets more worried about deflation. ... read more The Energy Report - Did Deflation Fears Help Rally The Oil Market?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 30 July 2010
Did Deflation fears help rally the oil market? Oil prices popped as the dollar index dropped hitting the lowest level since last April. The market seems convinced that the Euro zones problems are behind us so it appears that the carry commodity trade is back in play but could we see more problems up ahead?. Of course while the dollar has been trending lower and the Euro higher is this a sign that we are headed for a bought of commodity price inflation or are the markets more worried about deflation. ... read more Coming To America!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 29 July 2010
The Energy Report Thursday July 29, 2010
Everywhere from around the world, the crudes coming to America, every time that flag’s unfurled
crude is coming to America, got a dream to take it there, it’s coming to America. It’s coming to America and coming to America! Give me your poor, your huddles masses but most of all give me your crude. Crude Imports surged hitting the highest level since August of 2006 leading to a whopper 7.3 million barrel build in US Crude supply. This was a far cry from most analysts’ expectations that were looking for a big drop in supply by thinking that Tropical Storm Bonnie would impact imports in a negative fashion. ... read more The Energy Report - Coming To America!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 29 July 2010
Everywhere from around the world, the crudes coming to America, every time that flag’s unfurled
crude is coming to America, got a dream to take it there, it’s coming to America. It’s coming to America and coming to America! Give me your poor, your huddles masses but most of all give me your crude. Crude Imports surged hitting the highest level since August of 2006 leading to a whopper 7.3 million barrel build in US Crude supply. This was a far cry from most analysts’ expectations that were looking for a big drop in supply by thinking that Tropical Storm Bonnie would impact imports in a negative fashion. ... read more Fundamentally Flawed
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 28 July 2010
The Energy Report Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Another failed upside breakout as the global oil market continues to wallow in this endless trading range. As the bull and bear frustrations continue to mount, I have heard traders on both sides of the market that tell me that somehow the markets are wrong and that the fundamentals do not justify the current price. In other words that the market is somehow fundamentally flawed and that the price is out of whack with either your bullish or perhaps bearish reality. ... read more The Energy Report - Fundamentally Flawed
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 28 July 2010
Another failed upside breakout as the global oil market continues to wallow in this endless trading range. As the bull and bear frustrations continue to mount, I have heard traders on both sides of the market that tell me that somehow the markets are wrong and that the fundamentals do not justify the current price. In other words that the market is somehow fundamentally flawed and that the price is out of whack with either your bullish or perhaps bearish reality. ... read more All The News That Is Fit To Ignore
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 27 July 2010
The Energy Report Tuesday July 27, 2010
All The News that is fit to Ignore. Gee I miss the old days when a headline or two would get the oil screaming. When the markets feared that even the loss of just one drop of oil could knock the world out of its delicate supply versus demand balance. You remember those days not to long ago when the market soared on even the most mundane headline. Instead what we have now a lack of passion and that oh so boring market stability. ... read more The Energy Report - All The News That Is Fit To Ignore
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 27 July 2010
All The News that is fit to Ignore. Gee I miss the old days when a headline or two would get the oil screaming. When the markets feared that even the loss of just one drop of oil could knock the world out of its delicate supply versus demand balance. You remember those days not to long ago when the market soared on even the most mundane headline. Instead what we have now a lack of passion and that oh so boring market stability. Oh sure oil may try to reluctantly breakout to the upside as it follows the stock-market on its earnings fueled optimistic rally yet deep down it really does not want too. ... read more Bye, Bye, Bonnie
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 26 July 2010
The Energy Report Monday, July 26, 2010
With Bonnie behind us and more economic ahead of us the oil market currently is in a state of flux. The market continues to be supported by economic earnings related optimism but at the same time it has to worry about current state of oversupply. Oil and the products remain range bound and will continue to see swings perhaps on both sides of unchanged throughout the day. ... read more The Energy Report - Bye, Bye, Bonnie
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 26 July 2010
With Bonnie behind us and more economic ahead of us the oil market currently is in a state of flux. The market continues to be supported by economic earnings related optimism but at the same time it has to worry about current state of oversupply. Oil and the products remain range bound and will continue to see swings perhaps on both sides of unchanged throughout the day. When the big news of the day is whether or not Tony Heyward will step down or be pushed out of BP has to wonder whether or not the markets are focused on what it should be focused on. ... read more My Bonnie
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 23 July 2010
The Energy Report for Friday, July 23, 2010
All right readers, you knew this was coming. My Bonnie lies over the ocean. My Bonnie will make rig workers flee. My Bonnie will slow gulf operations, and bring oil bears to their knees. Sorry about that but I just had to do it. Batten down the hatches! Oil is getting blown out of its recent trading range hitting a three month high. With tropical storm Bonnie lying over the ocean and good earnings supporting the stock market, commodities markets are zest and full of life. ... read more The Energy Report - My Bonnie
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 23 July 2010
All right readers, you knew this was coming. My Bonnie lies over the ocean. My Bonnie will make rig workers flee. My Bonnie will slow gulf operations, and bring oil bears to their knees. Sorry about that but I just had to do it. Batten down the hatches! Oil is getting blown out of its recent trading range hitting a three month high. With tropical storm Bonnie lying over the ocean and good earnings supporting the stock market, commodities markets are zest and full of life. ... read more Ben What A Bummer!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 22 July 2010
The Energy Report for Thursday, July 22, 2010
Bummer Bernanke - Ben what a bummer! Way to bring us all down Ben. Dude, we were feeling happy in this little bubble world of earnings driven economic expectations and you go and have to ruin our little economic recovery fantasy world bliss. Why did you have to tell us the truth man and ruin the buzz?
That you and most of your friends at the Fed saw the risks to growth as weighted to the downside. ... read more The Energy Report - Ben What A Bummer!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 22 July 2010
Bummer Bernanke - Ben what a bummer! Way to bring us all down Ben. Dude, we were feeling happy in this little bubble world of earnings driven economic expectations and you go and have to ruin our little economic recovery fantasy world bliss. Why did you have to tell us the truth man and ruin the buzz?
That you and most of your friends at the Fed saw the risks to growth as weighted to the downside. Why tell us that the economic expansion is only proceeding at a moderate pace and only because it is being supported by stimulative monetary and fiscal policies. ... read more Oh No, Not Again
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 21 July 2010
The Energy Report Wednesday July 21, 2010
Oh no not again. I’d like to tell you that the supply report from the American Petroleum Institute matters and that we could go back to find love and happiness continuing to scalp oil in its very defined trading range. I would even like to tell you that todays Energy Information Agency report is going to matter as well. Yet the threat to our little trading range nirvana is being threatened by another potential storm down in the Gulf of Mexico. ... read more The Energy Report - Oh No, Not Again
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 21 July 2010
Oh no not again. I’d like to tell you that the supply report from the American Petroleum Institute matters and that we could go back to find love and happiness continuing to scalp oil in its very defined trading range. I would even like to tell you that todays Energy Information Agency report is going to matter as well. Yet the threat to our little trading range nirvana is being threatened by another potential storm down in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center now shows that a tropical wave that we have been watching now has about a 70% chance to biome a hurricane and play havoc with production and imports into the Gulf of Mexico. ... read more When You Are Number Two
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 20 July 2010
The Energy Report for Tuesday, July 20, 2010
When you are number two, aren't you supposed to try harder? China reached a major milestone in its history when it was reported by the International Energy Agency that China had over taken the United States of America as the world’s largest energy consumer. This of course is a label that has belonged to us for a very long time and despite what some environmental naysayers would say, it is a label that we should have worn with pride. For years we heard people scold us because the United States consumes 25% of the world’s energy yet has only 5% of the world’s population. ... read more The Energy Report - When You Are Number Two
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 20 July 2010
When you are number two, aren't you supposed to try harder? China reached a major milestone in its history when it was reported by the International Energy Agency that China had over taken the United States of America as the world’s largest energy consumer. This of course is a label that has belonged to us for a very long time and despite what some environmental naysayers would say, it is a label that we should have worn with pride. For years we heard people scold us because the United States consumes 25% of the world’s energy yet has only 5% of the world’s population. ... read more When Irish Eyes Are Crying
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 19 July 2010
The Energy Report for Monday, July 19, 2010
A downgrade of Irish debt, an oil spill in China and two storm systems down in the Atlantic that bear watching has oil being pulled in different directions. The tug and pull between bearish and bullish forces has oil bouncing in both directions. Now with a whole plate of earnings ahead of us, the dollar and the stock market will be our guide unless of course things get nasty weather wise down south. Overnight Moody's Investors Service cut Ireland's sovereign debt rating to Aa2 from Aa1because of what they say is the government's "gradual but significant loss of financial strength." ... read more The Energy Report - When Irish Eyes Are Crying
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 19 July 2010
A downgrade of Irish debt, an oil spill in China and two storm systems down in the Atlantic that bear watching has oil being pulled in different directions. The tug and pull between bearish and bullish forces has oil bouncing in both directions. Now with a whole plate of earnings ahead of us, the dollar and the stock market will be our guide unless of course things get nasty weather wise down south. Overnight Moody's Investors Service cut Ireland's sovereign debt rating to Aa2 from Aa1because of what they say is the government's "gradual but significant loss of financial strength." ... read more Capped!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 16 July 2010
The Energy Report Friday July 16, 2010
Great News for the oil industry and all of America and the world! The leak in the Gulf is capped! Finally for the first time since the Deep Water Horizon exploded back in April there is no oil leaking from that deepwater well. Still BP and the government are not celebrating just yet. The company still is worried that higher pressure inside the well could cause of explosions in other parts of the pipeline and is monitoring the well by checking pressure every 6 hours. ... read more The Energy Report - Capped!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 16 July 2010
Great News for the oil industry and all of America and the world! The leak in the Gulf is capped! Finally for the first time since the Deep Water Horizon exploded back in April there is no oil leaking from that deepwater well. Still BP and the government are not celebrating just yet. The company still is worried that higher pressure inside the well could cause of explosions in other parts of the pipeline and is monitoring the well by checking pressure every 6 hours. Let’s keep our fingers crossed and say a prayer. ... read more In A New York Minute
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 15 July 2010
The Energy Report for Thursday, July 15, 2010
In a New York minute or is it minutes. That is how fast we can pop this economic earnings optimism bubble. The oil market that was previously caught up in the wave of good feelings generated by the Alcoa earnings in the beginning of the earning season started to get dragged down by the bummer reality thing. The first sigh of trouble was the American Petroleum Institute report and then a lousy retail sales report followed by a Energy Information Agency supply report that was less then spectacular. ... read more The Energy Report - In A New York Minute
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 15 July 2010
In a New York minute or is it minutes. That is how fast we can pop this economic earnings optimism bubble. The oil market that was previously caught up in the wave of good feelings generated by the Alcoa earnings in the beginning of the earning season started to get dragged down by the bummer reality thing. The first sigh of trouble was the American Petroleum Institute report and then a lousy retail sales report followed by a Energy Information Agency supply report that was less then spectacular. ... read more And The Profits Kept Rolling In
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 14 July 2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, July 14, 2010
And the profits kept rolling in from every side. The S&P and the oil reached out and went real high. Now you may feel it should have been a supply/demand cause, but that's not the point my friends. When the profits keeps rolling in, you don't ask how. Think of all the bulls guaranteed a good time now. When the profits keeps rolling out you don't keep books, you can tell you've done well by the happy grateful looks. Supply and demand only slow things down, figures get in the way, dam the statistics and enjoy because oil is on the way. Well at least until we sober up. ... read more The Energy Report - And The Profits Kept Rolling In
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 14 July 2010
And the profits kept rolling in from every side. The S&P and the oil reached out and went real high. Now you may feel it should have been a supply/demand cause, but that's not the point my friends. When the profits keeps rolling in, you don't ask how. Think of all the bulls guaranteed a good time now. When the profits keeps rolling out you don't keep books, you can tell you've done well by the happy grateful looks. Supply and demand only slow things down, figures get in the way, dam the statistics and enjoy because oil is on the way. Well at least until we sober up. ... read more A Penny Saved Is A Penny Earned
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 13 July 2010
The Energy Report for Tuesday, July 13, 2010
A penny saved is a penny earned but enough about copper let's talk aluminum. Alcoa set a good tone for the energy markets as they kicked off the earnings season with some better than expected numbers. Yesterday oil prices fell back as the market awaited earnings from Alcoa yet it seems that they were worried about nothing. The Wall Street Journal said, “Alcoa swung to a profit in the second quarter on improved demand and prices after the aluminum producer struggled with anemic prices for the metal a year earlier. ... read more The Energy Report - A Penny Saved Is A Penny Earned
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 13 July 2010
A penny saved is a penny earned but enough about copper let's talk aluminum. Alcoa set a good tone for the energy markets as they kicked off the earnings season with some better than expected numbers. Yesterday oil prices fell back as the market awaited earnings from Alcoa yet it seems that they were worried about nothing. The Wall Street Journal said, “Alcoa swung to a profit in the second quarter on improved demand and prices after the aluminum producer struggled with anemic prices for the metal a year earlier. ... read more The Bulls Have To Earn Their Keep
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 12 July 2010
The Energy Report for Monday, July 12, 2010
This week oil bulls are going to have to earn it. Last week oil rallied to a renewed sense economic optimism. Risk appetite came as gold rallied and the 10 year yields went back to above 3%. We saw the industrial metals rally and we seemed to finally shake off the weak jobs environment in favor of this sense that gosh oh golly things just have to get better. Or maybe we figured that things just cannot get worse.
So now welcome to earnings season. You know, put up or shut up time for all of the stocks. ... read more The Energy Report - The Bulls Have To Earn Their Keep
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 12 July 2010
This week oil bulls are going to have to earn it. Last week oil rallied to a renewed sense economic optimism. Risk appetite came as gold rallied and the 10 year yields went back to above 3%. We saw the industrial metals rally and we seemed to finally shake off the weak jobs environment in favor of this sense that gosh oh golly things just have to get better. Or maybe we figured that things just cannot get worse.
So now welcome to earnings season. You know, put up or shut up time for all of the stocks. To follow through on that guided or misguided optimism this week's earnings season will have to keep the momentum going. ... read more The Energy Report - Going Coastal
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 09 July 2010
Darn, I was watching the wrong coast. The Energy Information Agency showed a big 5 million barrel drawdown in crude supply due to hurricane activity. The problem was that we were focused on the wrong hurricane. Or should I say hurricanes? All week oil traders watched with a mix of anticipation, angst and fear about the path of Hurricane Alex and its potential impact on oil operations and oil imports. Yet despite the fact that Alex did slow oil imports, it was two West Coast Hurricanes Celia and Darby that actually had more impact on the nations supply. ... read more Going Coastal
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 09 July 2010
Darn, I was watching the wrong coast. The Energy Information Agency showed a big 5 million barrel drawdown in crude supply due to hurricane activity. The problem was that we were focused on the wrong hurricane. Or should I say hurricanes? All week oil traders watched with a mix of anticipation, angst and fear about the path of Hurricane Alex and its potential impact on oil operations and oil imports. Yet despite the fact that Alex did slow oil imports, it was two West Coast Hurricanes Celia and Darby that actually had more impact on the nations supply. ... read more Everything Is Beautiful In Its Own Way
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 08 July 2010
The Energy Report for Thursday, July 8, 2010
Everything is beautiful in its own way. Come on now get happy because all of our troubles are behind us. Forget European defaults. That was so last week! This week we went shopping and all our cares have gone away. Risk takers exploded on the scene plowing back into the futures markets helping drive oil higher. No, it isn’t like oil did not have other reasons to rally because it did, yet the magnitude of the rally was really driven by this sudden feeling that maybe, ... read more The Energy Report - Everything Is Beautiful In Its Own Way
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 08 July 2010
Everything is beautiful in its own way. Come on now get happy because all of our troubles are behind us. Forget European defaults. That was so last week! This week we went shopping and all our cares have gone away. Risk takers exploded on the scene plowing back into the futures markets helping drive oil higher. No, it isn’t like oil did not have other reasons to rally because it did, yet the magnitude of the rally was really driven by this sudden feeling that maybe, just maybe things in the global economy are not so bad after all. There, now don’t you feel better? ... read more They Keep Me Hanging On
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 07 July 2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Set me free, why don't ya babe. Get out my life, why don't ya babe. Cause you don't really want to buy me, you just keep me hanging' on. You don't really need me but you keep me hanging' on. The oil bulls have got to be asking that question. Why oh why do you keep me hanging on by my finger tips? Another failed rally after the stocks led oil up it was the oil that led the whole mess down. Now even the most bullish analysts are starting to turn bearish as their bullish fantasies are becoming a nightmare. ... read more The Energy Report - They Keep Me Hanging On
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 07 July 2010
Set me free, why don't ya babe. Get out my life, why don't ya babe. Cause you don't really want to buy me, you just keep me hanging' on. You don't really need me but you keep me hanging' on. The oil bulls have got to be asking that question. Why oh why do you keep me hanging on by my finger tips? Another failed rally after the stocks led oil up it was the oil that led the whole mess down. Now even the most bullish analysts are starting to turn bearish as their bullish fantasies are becoming a nightmare. Of course if they are turning bearish should I be turning bullish? ... read more After The Fireworks
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 06 July 2010
The Energy Report for Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Now that the fireworks are over, the question becomes can oil rebound from the low seventies. The oil market is trying to get up off the mat after a very disappointing jobs report last week. So if the oil market comes back, does that mean the economy is not so bad? What does the government need to do to get the private sector moving again or maybe is it time that they get out of the way? ... read more The Energy Report - After The Fireworks
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 06 July 2010
Now that the fireworks are over, the question becomes can oil rebound from the low seventies. The oil market is trying to get up off the mat after a very disappointing jobs report last week. So if the oil market comes back, does that mean the economy is not so bad? What does the government need to do to get the private sector moving again or maybe is it time that they get out of the way?
Non-farm payrolls fell by 125,000 as the census, the best job stimulus the government had going for it, cut 225,000 temporary workers. ... read more The Energy Report - Firecracker!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 30 June 2010
Did someone light the fuse so the global economy could blow up again? Bullish dreams for oil exploded in a spectacular array of global economic worries. Forget about Hurricane Alex for the moment because the oil complex sure has. It is time to start worrying about the Euro zone, China, the end of the quarter and whether or not you can get reservations at the beach for the 4th of July fireworks. All of these issues played into yesterday massive stock market selloff. Traders worried about protecting any profits they may have and a terrible drop in consumer confidence sent the market on huge downward spiral. ... read more Firecracker!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 30 June 2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Did someone light the fuse so the global economy could blow up again? Bullish dreams for oil exploded in a spectacular array of global economic worries. Forget about Hurricane Alex for the moment because the oil complex sure has. It is time to start worrying about the Euro zone, China, the end of the quarter and whether or not you can get reservations at the beach for the 4th of July fireworks. ... read more The Energy Report - Is BP Too Big To Fail?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 29 June 2010
Is BP too big to fail? Get ready for the latest BP stress test and a new BP thing to worry about. Reuter’s reports that the U.S. Federal Reserve's New York branch has been investigating the exposure of major financial firms to BP to make sure that if BP can't meet the costs of its spill in the Gulf of Mexico, it won't put Wall Street or the world's financial system at risk. Reuters says that the New York fed, after two weeks of reviewing documents and asking banks about their BP exposure, found no systemic risk, and it hasn't asked firms to alter their credit relationships with BP, the sources said. The New York fed and BP officials declined to comment. ... read more Is BP Too Big To Fail?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 29 June 2010
The Energy Report for Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Is BP too big to fail? Get ready for the latest BP stress test and a new BP thing to worry about. Reuter’s reports that the U.S. Federal Reserve's New York branch has been investigating the exposure of major financial firms to BP to make sure that if BP can't meet the costs of its spill in the Gulf of Mexico, it won't put Wall Street or the world's financial system at risk. Reuters says that the New York fed, ... read more Dodge A Bullet
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 28 June 2010
The Energy Report for Monday, June 28, 2010
Tropical storm Alex most likely won’t be much of a problem for BP as its track is far south of the spill zone. Now let’s just hope that another storm does not develop. A second tropical wave dissipated and that is good news as it appears that BP may have dodged a bullet and can continue to collect oil and make progress on moving forward with the relief well.
The Wall Street Journal reports that BP said it recovered 22,750 barrels of oil on Saturday yet at the same time they do not expect to complete the relief well until early August. ... read more The Energy Report - Dodge A Bullet
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 28 June 2010
Tropical storm Alex most likely won’t be much of a problem for BP as its track is far south of the spill zone. Now let’s just hope that another storm does not develop. A second tropical wave dissipated and that is good news as it appears that BP may have dodged a bullet and can continue to collect oil and make progress on moving forward with the relief well.
The Wall Street Journal reports that BP said it recovered 22,750 barrels of oil on Saturday yet at the same time they do not expect to complete the relief well until early August. ... read more Pricing In Mediocrity
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 25 June 2010
The Energy Report for Friday, June 25, 2010
Global oil markets are finding it hard to get excited living in this new post Federal Reserve World. The passion left the market place and sunk in to a kind of what might be described as a stag deflation mode. All across the yield curve, from the short end to the long, yields are sinking to near record lows. While cheap money is keeping our economy meandering along, it is not the type of drive that seems to be the type of growth that will translate into strong energy demand. What’s more, even stories that are normally bullish for oil and the products are not giving the market the support you would expect. ... read more The Energy Report - Pricing In Mediocrity
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 25 June 2010
Global oil markets are finding it hard to get excited living in this new post Federal Reserve World. The passion left the market place and sunk in to a kind of what might be described as a stag deflation mode. All across the yield curve, from the short end to the long, yields are sinking to near record lows. While cheap money is keeping our economy meandering along, it is not the type of drive that seems to be the type of growth that will translate into strong energy demand. What’s more, even stories that are normally bullish for oil and the products are not giving the market the support you would expect. ... read more The Energy Report - Apathetic!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 24 June 2010
If the oil bulls were looking for inspiration from the Federal Reserve to get their bullish juices flowing they were sorely disappointed. Once again, with a weakening economic outlook, some terrible housing numbers and a not so inspiring Energy Information Agency report, the oil bulls have got to be asking themselves where the demand growth is going to come from. Even the International Energy Agency is saying that growth in world fuel demand will decline over the next five years as the pace of Chinese consumption slows. ... read more Apathetic!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 24 June 2010
The Energy Report for Thursday, June 24, 2010
If the oil bulls were looking for inspiration from the Federal Reserve to get their bullish juices flowing they were sorely disappointed. Once again, with a weakening economic outlook, some terrible housing numbers and a not so inspiring Energy Information Agency report, the oil bulls have got to be asking themselves where the demand growth is going to come from. Even the International Energy Agency is saying that growth in world fuel demand will decline over the next five years as the pace of Chinese consumption slows. ... read more The Energy Report - Moratorium Show Down!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 23 June 2010
Moratorium show down! Well I did call Obama the Great Misleader and now I have a judge that agrees with me. Federal Judge Martin L.C. Feldman issued an injunction against the Obama administration lifting its drilling moratorium saying the government never justified the ban and appeared to mislead the public. Oil prices fell back across the curve falling 15-30 cents a barrel right after the announcement. ... read more Moratorium Show Down!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 23 June 2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Moratorium show down! Well I did call Obama the Great Misleader and now I have a judge that agrees with me. Federal Judge Martin L.C. Feldman issued an injunction against the Obama administration lifting its drilling moratorium saying the government never justified the ban and appeared to mislead the public. Oil prices fell back across the curve falling 15-30 cents a barrel right after the announcement. ... read more The Oil Market Re-Evaluates China’s Re-Valuation
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 22 June 2010
The Energy Report for Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Perhaps the yuan re-valuation was not as bullish as you thought. We warned yesterday not to get complacently bullish on the yuan re-valuation and sure enough after the commodities markets popped, they then dropped. In fact it is very possible that this yuan re-velation non-event may change the short term trend direction risk in commodities. ... read more The Energy Report - The Oil Market Re-Evaluates China's Re-Valuation
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 22 June 2010
Perhaps the yuan re-valuation was not as bullish as you thought. We warned yesterday not to get complacently bullish on the yuan re-valuation and sure enough after the commodities markets popped, they then dropped. In fact it is very possible that this yuan re-velation non-event may change the short term trend direction risk in commodities. Mainly I am talking about gold and oil but other commodities that have speculated for months on the Chinese government allowing their currency to “float” may have already bought the rumor and sold the fact. ... read more The Dollar Drops While China Rocks
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 21 June 2010
The Energy Report for Monday, June 21, 2010
The dollar drops while China rocks. China has either given in to pressure or has realized that its peg to the dollar may soon become counterproductive.China shook the global markets by announcing that they were going to allow their currency to be more flexible. As expected, oil soared on the news because the move will make oil cheaper in China and may inspire more Chinese buying of more commodities! ... read more The Energy Report - The Dollar Drops While China Rocks
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 21 June 2010
The dollar drops while China rocks. China has either given in to pressure or has realized that its peg to the dollar may soon become counterproductive.China shook the global markets by announcing that they were going to allow their currency to be more flexible. As expected, oil soared on the news because the move will make oil cheaper in China and may inspire more Chinese buying of more commodities! Yet will this be for the long haul as a stronger yuan may slow exports by making Chinese goods more expensive overseas. ... read more The Energy Report - Getting BP'D
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 18 June 2010
Oh sure it is easy to skewer the CEO of BP on Capitol Hill but what good does that do for the people suffering down in the Gulf! Democrats got their pound of flesh and spewed their anger and outrage at Tony Heyward, yet at the same time what are these sanctimonious politicians doing to help contain the damage in the Gulf of Mexico.The Deep Water Horizon exploded back on April 20, yet the Obama administration still refuses to make an all out effort to clean up and contain the spill. ... read more Getting BP'D
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 18 June 2010
Oh sure it is easy to skewer the CEO of BP on Capitol Hill but what good does that do for the people suffering down in the Gulf! Democrats got their pound of flesh and spewed their anger and outrage at Tony Heyward, yet at the same time what are these sanctimonious politicians doing to help contain the damage in the Gulf of Mexico.The Deep Water Horizon exploded back on April 20, yet the Obama administration still refuses to make an all out effort to clean up and contain the spill. ... read more The Energy Report - End Game In Sight
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 17 June 2010
Hey, can I get some of those 20 billion dollars in BP's escrow account? This BP spill has caused me to lose sleep and has given me some emotional stress. That should be worth $20,000-30,000.00 at least! BP put up hoping to get Obama to shut up and perhaps to get assurances that the Obama administration and BP will both survive. Obama got a much needed political win and I am sure BP got some things in return as it appears the bitter rivals came together to save their own skins. ... read more End Game In Sight
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 17 June 2010
The Energy Report for Thursday, June 17, 2010
Hey, can I get some of those 20 billion dollars in BP's escrow account? This BP spill has caused me to lose sleep and has given me some emotional stress. That should be worth $20,000-30,000.00 at least! BP put up hoping to get Obama to shut up and perhaps to get assurances that the Obama administration and BP will both survive. Obama got a much needed political win and I am sure BP got some things in return as it appears the bitter rivals came together to save their own skins. ... read more The Energy Report - The 90% Solution
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 16 June 2010
What do you get when you put together a Nobel Prize-winning physicist, national labs and experts from academia and other oil companies? You get what could be called a 90% solution. President Obama addressed the nation from the Oval Office and said that his efforts to wage war against the oil spill that is assaulting our shores and our citizens would result in capturing up to 90% of oil leaking out of that BP well disaster. I would say that is an amazing effort. Yet while he wages war against this oil spill why he is not allowing our allies to help in the effort? ... read more The Energy Report - The 90% Solution
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 16 June 2010
What do you get when you put together a Nobel Prize-winning physicist, national labs and experts from academia and other oil companies? You get what could be called a 90% solution. President Obama addressed the nation from the Oval Office and said that his efforts to wage war against the oil spill that is assaulting our shores and our citizens would result in capturing up to 90% of oil leaking out of that BP well disaster. I would say that is an amazing effort. Yet while he wages war against this oil spill why he is not allowing our allies to help in the effort? ... read more The Energy Report - The Great Retrace
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 11 June 2010
After hitting a high of 8715 on May the third and a low of 6424 on the flash crash low, oil has barreled back to near the $75.00 a barrel area and it appears the great retrace is on. Oil rallied on the illusion of economic stability and a strong euro only to have those daydreams be shattered in financial deception. The oil market has come to a major decision point and may be getting ready to get back into a bull market mode. Yet oil, like a lot of the major markets, are at key technical turning points and they had better make it now or we are going to break it. ... read more The Great Retrace
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 11 June 2010
The Energy Report for Friday, June 11, 2010
After hitting a high of 8715 on May the third and a low of 6424 on the flash crash low, oil has barreled back to near the $75.00 a barrel area and it appears the great retrace is on. Oil rallied on the illusion of economic stability and a strong euro only to have those daydreams be shattered in financial deception. The oil market has come to a major decision point and may be getting ready to get back into a bull market mode. Yet oil, like a lot of the major markets, are at key technical turning points and they had better make it now or we are going to break it. ... read more The Energy Report - BP Means Bad Policy
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 10 June 2010
Bashing BP is in. While Obama is trying to figure out whose "ass to kick", politicians are acting like jilted lovers falling all over themselves to try to lash out and hurt BP while our global reputation as the world’s best and most fair place to do business is at risk. This goes far beyond BP and what they could have or should have to avoid this disaster or how they are handling the aftermath but really comes down to the credibility of this country in the global market place. ... read more BP Means Bad Policy
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 10 June 2010
The Energy Report for Thursday, June 10, 2010
Bashing BP is in. While Obama is trying to figure out whose "ass to kick", politicians are acting like jilted lovers falling all over themselves to try to lash out and hurt BP while our global reputation as the world’s best and most fair place to do business is at risk. This goes far beyond BP and what they could have or should have to avoid this disaster or how they are handling the aftermath but really comes down to the credibility of this country in the global market place. ... read more The Energy Report - Leaks of another Nature
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 09 June 2010
What about the sanctity of market data? Well I guess if Obama can tout the “unemployment” report before it is released, then I guess it's ok for the Chinese to leak data on their export and loan growth data. A report from Reuters reversed the Shanghai stock and set a more positive tone for global markets as they reported comments by a senior Chinese government official who boasted that Chinese exports were up by almost 50% above a year ago. ... read more Leaks of another Nature
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 09 June 2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, June 9, 2010
What about the sanctity of market data? Well I guess if Obama can tout the “unemployment” report before it is released, then I guess it's ok for the Chinese to leak data on their export and loan growth data. A report from Reuters reversed the Shanghai stock and set a more positive tone for global markets as they reported comments by a senior Chinese government official who boasted that Chinese exports were up by almost 50% above a year ago. ... read more The Energy Report - Speaking Loud and Clear
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 08 June 2010
The futures market is speaking loud and clear about the impact of the Gulf oil spill on oil prices but is the Obama administration listening? As I have pointed out in a previous article, the futures market is saying that when it comes to the gulf oil spill we will not have to pay today but hang onto your wallet tomorrow. The futures market is screaming that in the in the longer dated futures contracts that if we restrict offshore drilling in the Gulf or overregulated the price of oil it will go through the roof. Theses sentiments were outlined by an article in Bloomberg News. ... read more Speaking Loud and Clear
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 08 June 2010
The futures market is speaking loud and clear about the impact of the Gulf oil spill on oil prices but is the Obama administration listening? As I have pointed out in a previous article, the futures market is saying that when it comes to the gulf oil spill we will not have to pay today but hang onto your wallet tomorrow. The futures market is screaming that in the in the longer dated futures contracts that if we restrict offshore drilling in the Gulf or overregulated the price of oil it will go through the roof. Theses sentiments were outlined by an article in Bloomberg News. ... read more The Great Misleader
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 07 June 2010
The Energy Report for Monday, June 7, 2010
The reason why last week's jobs report was so bad was because we were mislead and told it was supposed to be so good. The Obama administration told the markets a big whopper and the market made them pay. The global economy is looking for confidence and credibility so when the administration misled us the market now thinks they may be hiding something worse. ... read more The Energy Report - The Great Misleader
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 07 June 2010
The reason why last week's jobs report was so bad was because we were mislead and told it was supposed to be so good. The Obama administration told the markets a big whopper and the market made them pay. The global economy is looking for confidence and credibility so when the administration misled us the market now thinks they may be hiding something worse. Both Obama and Bided falsely raised the expectations of the market place by touting a super strong jobs report that was not there on Friday. ... read more The Energy Report - All Right So You Are Mad At BP
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 04 June 2010
All right so you are mad at BP so why not go out and try to cut into their profits buy not buying their gasoline. Well it sounds good, but the problem is that if you want to get back at BP that is not the way to do it. The truth is BP is not in the retail gas business and the other truth is all you will hurt by boycotting them is the people that have nothing to do with the spill. A BP boycott is an exercise in futility. ... read more The Energy Report - All Right So You Are Mad At BP
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 04 June 2010
All right so you are mad at BP so why not go out and try to cut into their profits buy not buying their gasoline. Well it sounds good, but the problem is that if you want to get back at BP that is not the way to do it. The truth is BP is not in the retail gas business and the other truth is all you will hurt by boycotting them is the people that have nothing to do with the spill. A BP boycott is an exercise in futility. ... read more Oil Prices Rise On Leaked Information
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 03 June 2010
The Energy Report for Thursday, June 3, 2010
Oil prices rise on leaked information. That is right! The jobs report was leaked causing a rally in the stock market! Who got their hands on this valuable inside information and leaked it to the marketplace at large? Well believe it or not it was Obama himself. What!? I know! Yet that is exactly what he did. Speaking at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, the President said, “After losing an average of 750,000 jobs a month during the winter of last year, ... read more The Energy Report - Oil Prices Rise On Leaked Information
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 03 June 2010
Oil prices rise on leaked information. That is right! The jobs report was leaked causing a rally in the stock market! Who got their hands on this valuable inside information and leaked it to the marketplace at large? Well believe it or not it was Obama himself. What!? I know! Yet that is exactly what he did. Speaking at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, the President said, “After losing an average of 750,000 jobs a month during the winter of last year, we have now added jobs for five of the last six months, and we expect to see strong job growth in Friday's report.” ... read more BP Spill Impact On Oil Prices
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 02 June 2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, June 2, 2010
The BP oil spill finally had a noticeable impact on the front end oil futures. It drove them lower. That's right, lower. Oil futures got hammered as BP stock got obliterated and the “Top Kill” procedure in the Gulf spill was deemed a failure. Add to that there are talks of possible criminal charges against BP that has rattled investors. According to the Houston Chronicle shares of, ... read more The Energy Report - BP Spill Impact On Oil Prices
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 02 June 2010
The BP oil spill finally had a noticeable impact on the front end oil futures. It drove them lower. That's right, lower. Oil futures got hammered as BP stock got obliterated and the “Top Kill” procedure in the Gulf spill was deemed a failure. Add to that there are talks of possible criminal charges against BP that has rattled investors. According to the Houston Chronicle shares of, “ BP have fallen 40 percent since the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig on April 20, to $36.52, its lowest in more than a year. ... read more Rain In Spain Helps Oil Go Down The Drain
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 01 June 2010
The Energy Report for Tuesday, June 1, 2010
The rain in Spain helps oil go down the drain. Last week a downgrade in Spain’s credit rating helped sink oil. Overnight it was a report on Chinese manufacturing that did the deed. Last Friday, ahead of the holiday, Fitch downgraded Spain’s credit causing stocks and oil to tumble. That was only temporary because at the end of the day we all know that Europe doesn’t matter, it is all about China and China has decoupled from the rest of the globe. ... read more The Energy Report - Rain In Spain Helps Oil Go Down The Drain
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 01 June 2010
The rain in Spain helps oil go down the drain. Last week a downgrade in Spain’s credit rating helped sink oil. Overnight it was a report on Chinese manufacturing that did the deed. Last Friday, ahead of the holiday, Fitch downgraded Spain’s credit causing stocks and oil to tumble. That was only temporary because at the end of the day we all know that Europe doesn’t matter, it is all about China and China has decoupled from the rest of the globe. ... read more The Energy Report - The Manic Month Of May
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 28 May 2010
Sell in May and go away? That would have worked in the petroleum markets so far. Of course if you looked at a chart of the markets you might be sick to see how much money you may have given back. The bulls started the lusty month of May lusting for new highs which they got on light holiday volume as the lead month oil contract broke out to a high of approximately 8715 on May, 3, 2010. Those lofty highs were only fleeting as Greece debt fears engulfed the global market place crushing the optimism of April into the fear factor of May as oil came crashing down to what was a flash crash low of approximately 6424 on that fateful May 20,2010. ... read more The Manic Month Of May
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 28 May 2010
The Energy Report for Friday, May 28, 2010
Sell in May and go away? That would have worked in the petroleum markets so far. Of course if you looked at a chart of the markets you might be sick to see how much money you may have given back. The bulls started the lusty month of May lusting for new highs which they got on light holiday volume as the lead month oil contract broke out to a high of approximately 8715 on May, 3, 2010. Those lofty highs were only fleeting as Greece debt fears engulfed the global market place crushing the optimism of April into the fear factor of May as oil came crashing down to what was a flash crash low of approximately 6424 on that fateful May 20,2010. ... read more The Energy Report - The Audacity Of Hope
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 27 May 2010
If the economy bounces back and the Chinese hang onto their Euros, can oil bulls find love and happiness in this world of economic turmoil? The audacity of hope once again has crept back into the oil market. A string of strong macroeconomic numbers that blew away market expectations, as well as some strong oil demand numbers, has the marketplace trying to forget all about the fears of a global economic meltdown that has engulfed the market. For today all the subplots have been put aside for the moment as the market now wants to bask in the economic silver linings of the moment. ... read more The Energy Report - The Audacity Of Hope
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 27 May 2010
If the economy bounces back and the Chinese hang onto their Euros, can oil bulls find love and happiness in this world of economic turmoil? The audacity of hope once again has crept back into the oil market. A string of strong macroeconomic numbers that blew away market expectations, as well as some strong oil demand numbers, has the marketplace trying to forget all about the fears of a global economic meltdown that has engulfed the market. For today all the subplots have been put aside for the moment as the market now wants to bask in the economic silver linings of the moment. ... read more The Energy Report - Can The US Consumer Save The Global Economy?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 26 May 2010
Can the US consumer save the global economy? Again?! Well at least for the moment it sure seems that way. A global market meltdown seemed to end when the Conference Board blew away market expectations reporting that their Consumer Confidence Index came in at a stunning 63.3 up from 57.7 in April. The “Present Situation Index” increased to 30.2 from 28.2. The expectations Index improved to 85.3 from 77.4 last month. This was enough to get the market's mind off things. ... read more Can The US Consumer Save The Global Economy?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 26 May 2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Can the US consumer save the global economy? Again?! Well at least for the moment it sure seems that way. A global market meltdown seemed to end when the Conference Board blew away market expectations reporting that their Consumer Confidence Index came in at a stunning 63.3 up from 57.7 in April. The “Present Situation Index” increased to 30.2 from 28.2. The expectations Index improved to 85.3 from 77.4 last month. ... read more The Energy Report - Combat Ready
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 25 May 2010
Traders across the globe have been combat ready for some time as they have staked out defensive positions to protect themselves from the fall out of the European financial crisis. Now it appears that they now have to protect themselves for an entirely different reason.
Rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula have Asian stock markets in turmoil causing a flight to the dollar and may over shadow trade in all commodity markets. ... read more Combat Ready
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 25 May 2010
The Energy Report Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Traders across the globe have been combat ready for some time as they have staked out defensive positions to protect themselves from the fall out of the European financial crisis. Now it appears that they now have to protect themselves for an entirely different reason.
Rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula have Asian stock markets in turmoil causing a flight to the dollar and may over shadow trade in all commodity markets. ... read more The Energy Report - The Death Of The Carry Trade
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 24 May 2010
The ”Carry Trade” just can’t carry the oil market away like it used to, especially with total petroleum inventories at a 20 year high for the month of May. So much for selling the dollar buying the Euro and every commodity you could get your hands on, the great carry trade unwind continues changing the way we may view all markets from this day forward.
The global commodity markets are still trying to adjust to the economic problems in Europe and what may or may not happen in China in terms of economic policy. ... read more The Death Of The Carry Trade
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 24 May 2010
The Energy Report for Monday, May 24, 2010
The ”Carry Trade” just can’t carry the oil market away like it used to, especially with total petroleum inventories at a 20 year high for the month of May. So much for selling the dollar buying the Euro and every commodity you could get your hands on, the great carry trade unwind continues changing the way we may view all markets from this day forward. ... read more The Energy Report - Oil Fundamentally Speaking
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 21 May 2010
Don’t you hate it when the fundamentals get in the way of a great bullish trade? Yes, you do unless you are bearish. Oil traders and the world continue to get a reality check as global markets are crumbling and teetering on the edge of oblivion. There is great loss of confidence in Europe as the true nature of the ills that still plague the global economy are unmasked. We live in a world of printed money, piles of debt and countries that hide the true nature of their debt. ... read more Oil Fundamentally Speaking
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 21 May 2010
The Energy Report for Friday, May, 21 2010
Don’t you hate it when the fundamentals get in the way of a great bullish trade? Yes, you do unless you are bearish. Oil traders and the world continue to get a reality check as global markets are crumbling and teetering on the edge of oblivion. There is great loss of confidence in Europe as the true nature of the ills that still plague the global economy are unmasked. We live in a world of printed money, piles of debt and countries that hide the true nature of their debt. ... read more The Energy Report - Expiration Aberration
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 20 May 2010
Oil prices bucked the deflationary commodity trend with a late session turnaround as traders moved to cover positions the day before the June futures contract expiration. Some traders credited the turnaround in the market to what seemed to be an increasingly optimistic Federal Reserve that raised their economic growth expectations in the release of its Fed Minutes. The Fed said in the Minutes from the FOMC meeting last April that GDP growth would range to 3.2% to 3.7% which was up from a previous forecast range of 2.8% -3.5%. ... read more Expiration Aberration
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 20 May 2010
The Energy Report for Thursday, May 20, 2010
Oil prices bucked the deflationary commodity trend with a late session turnaround as traders moved to cover positions the day before the June futures contract expiration. Some traders credited the turnaround in the market to what seemed to be an increasingly optimistic Federal Reserve that raised their economic growth expectations in the release of its Fed Minutes. ... read more The Energy Report - Here We Go Again
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 19 May 2010
Ok, now let's get this straight. They write a big check to Greece to try to restore confidence in the EU and then Germany decides to shake that confidence a bit by banning “naked short selling” in stocks. Once again just when the market tried to put this EU crisis behind us, here we go again.
Producer prices came in at a negative as deflation pressures are mounting and the last shred of confidence the market held on to was dashed by the terrible timing of Germany’s BaFin financial-services regulator saying that it will introduce a temporary ban on naked short-selling and naked credit-default swaps of euro-area government bonds starting at the midnight hour. ... read more Here We Go Again
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 19 May 2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Ok, now let's get this straight. They write a big check to Greece to try to restore confidence in the EU and then Germany decides to shake that confidence a bit by banning “naked short selling” in stocks. Once again just when the market tried to put this EU crisis behind us, here we go again. ... read more The Energy Report - Silver Linings
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 18 May 2010
Europe is in turmoil and global stock markets looked like they were getting ready to collapse. But look at the bright side, at least gasoline prices are coming down. Leave it to The Energy Report to find that silver lining in that dark cloud (of course even silver fell yesterday in this deflationary downside route). According to The Energy Information Agency, gas prices fell 4.1 cents last week to 286.4 cents a gallon. AAA said that the price of gas fell to $2.867 a gallon, the lowest since April 26. ... read more Silver Linings
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 18 May 2010
The Energy Report for Tuesday, May 18, 2010
Europe is in turmoil and global stock markets looked like they were getting ready to collapse. But look at the bright side, at least gasoline prices are coming down. Leave it to The Energy Report to find that silver lining in that dark cloud (of course even silver fell yesterday in this deflationary downside route). According to The Energy Information Agency, gas prices fell 4.1 cents last week to 286.4 cents a gallon. AAA said that the price of gas fell to $2.867 a gallon, the lowest since April 26. ... read more The Energy Report - Euro Melt
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 17 May 2010
Asia plays catch up with last Fridays Euro Meltdown driving oil to a new 3 month low. Strength comes in numbers but at the same time, the numbers can bring you down as the small members of the EU are raising concerns that the Euro will be split. Those fears gained momentum when German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Europe is in a “very, very serious situation” .Those concerns started a global aversion to risk going into the weekend as we saw the Euro move to a four year low. Today we want to find out if the market gains a sense of confidence as the market hopes that we will see bargain hunters step in. ... read more Euro Melt
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 17 May 2010
Asia plays catch up with last Fridays Euro Meltdown driving oil to a new 3 month low. Strength comes in numbers but at the same time, the numbers can bring you down as the small members of the EU are raising concerns that the Euro will be split. Those fears gained momentum when German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Europe is in a “very, very serious situation” .Those concerns started a global aversion to risk going into the weekend as we saw the Euro move to a four year low. Today we want to find out if the market gains a sense of confidence as the market hopes that we will see bargain hunters step in. ... read more The Energy Report - But It All Come Tumbling' Down
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 14 May 2010
The oil bulls started the month with such high hopes, but it all come tumbling' down. Well it all comes tumbling' down. Yes, it all comes tumbling' down whenever you're credit isn’t sound.
Austerity is a nice word and one the market wants to hear but there are doubts about whether or not that can happen. Not just in the European Union but in the good old United States as well. Oh sure an austerity plan put through by Portugal was welcome by the markets and seemed to calm the recent debt fears stormy seas, yet at the same time moves in the commodities markets are showing that they fear another round of economic anguish. ... read more But It All Come Tumbling' Down
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 14 May 2010
The Energy Report for Friday, May 14, 2010
The oil bulls started the month with such high hopes, but it all come tumbling' down. Well it all comes tumbling' down. Yes, it all comes tumbling' down whenever you're credit isn’t sound.
Austerity is a nice word and one the market wants to hear but there are doubts about whether or not that can happen. Not just in the European Union but in the good old United States as well. ... read more The Energy Report - Drivers start your engines!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 13 May 2010
Drivers start your engines! Let the summer driving season begin. Despite all the talk of $4.00 a gallon gasoline this summer, more and more it looks as though retail gasoline prices have peaked for the season.
Even yesterday's drawdown in supply, drop in refinery runs and gasoline production runs might be expected as gas goes up on the racks as refiners and retailers get ready for the official kickoff of the summer driving season on the Memorial Day weekend. ... read more The Energy Report - Drivers start your engines!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 13 May 2010
Drivers start your engines! Let the summer driving season begin. Despite all the talk of $4.00 a gallon gasoline this summer, more and more it looks as though retail gasoline prices have peaked for the season.
Even yesterday's drawdown in supply, drop in refinery runs and gasoline production runs might be expected as gas goes up on the racks as refiners and retailers get ready for the official kickoff of the summer driving season on the Memorial Day weekend. ... read more The Great European Gold Rush
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 12 May 2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, May 12, 2010
The global oil market is trying once again to find value in a global economy gone mad. The near trillion dollar effort to save the euro from a debt laden collapse has crude oil still trying to adjust to this latest chapter in the global economic crisis. Oh sure, earlier in this crisis it was much easier for oil to find its way. The United States having a fed funds target rate of near zero and was buying back toxic assets and so it was clearer. ... read more The Energy Report - The Great European Gold Rush
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 12 May 2010
The global oil market is trying once again to find value in a global economy gone mad. The near trillion dollar effort to save the euro from a debt laden collapse has crude oil still trying to adjust to this latest chapter in the global economic crisis. Oh sure, earlier in this crisis it was much easier for oil to find its way. The United States having a fed funds target rate of near zero and was buying back toxic assets and so it was clearer. The Fed was printing money like it was going out of style and the EU was not supposed to do the same. ... read more The Energy Report - Shock and Awesome
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 11 May 2010
Oil is still trying to get over the shock and awe of the massive ECB debt bailout. But despite the wow factor of a near trillion dollar bail-out, do not fly that mission accomplished banner just yet. Even as global stock markets opened in ecstasy, a back-slide in the Euro made some wonder about the longer term ramifications of the EU breaking all the rules by rewarding some members bad debt behavior. The New York Times warned that, “for all the excitement about the scale of the effort, it is important to remember that the core fund does not now exist. ... read more Shock and Awesome
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 11 May 2010
Oil is still trying to get over the shock and awe of the massive ECB debt bailout. But despite the wow factor of a near trillion dollar bail-out, do not fly that mission accomplished banner just yet. Even as global stock markets opened in ecstasy, a back-slide in the Euro made some wonder about the longer term ramifications of the EU breaking all the rules by rewarding some members bad debt behavior. The New York Times warned that, “for all the excitement about the scale of the effort, it is important to remember that the core fund does not now exist. ... read more Could A Big Trading Error Save The Stock Market?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 07 May 2010
The Energy Report for Friday, May 7, 2010
Was it real or was it all just a dream? Someone might say we were living in a dream or maybe it was more of a nightmare. Fat fingers and Greece rioters set up one of the most jaw dropping and surreal days in market history.
With Europe embroiled in economic and political turmoil as riot police faced protesters assembling near the Greek Parliament after passing an austerity package, ... read more The Energy Report - Could A Big Trading Error Save The Stock Market?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 07 May 2010
Was it real or was it all just a dream? Someone might say we were living in a dream or maybe it was more of a nightmare. Fat fingers and Greece rioters set up one of the most jaw dropping and surreal days in market history.
With Europe embroiled in economic and political turmoil as riot police faced protesters assembling near the Greek Parliament after passing an austerity package, the market was already in panic mode. ... read more The Energy Report - Political Irresponsibility Leads To Death
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 06 May 2010
Political irresponsibility leads to death. Riots in the streets of Athens lead to murder and fears that the Greece bailout and austerity plan are on shaky ground and this has oil bulls running for cover.
Global financial markets got rocked as the market fears that the Greece plan to push through drastic economic measures is in jeopardy as chaos in the streets of Athens and resistance from some EU members to approve a massive and growing bailout hang in the air. ... read more Political Irresponsibility Leads To Death
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 06 May 2010
The Energy Report for Thursday, May 06, 2010
Political irresponsibility leads to death. Riots in the streets of Athens lead to murder and fears that the Greece bailout and austerity plan are on shaky ground and this has oil bulls running for cover.
Global financial markets got rocked as the market fears that the Greece plan to push through drastic economic measures is in jeopardy as chaos in the streets of Athens and resistance from some EU members to approve a massive and growing bailout hang in the air. ... read more A Day Of Reckoning
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 05 May 2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, May 5, 2010
When the greatest oil spill in decades doesn’t cause oil to rally, you know if you are a bull that you are going to have some problems. Still, there were others happenings to consider.
The mysteries of the smoke and mirrors of economic stimulus seemed to be revealed in the realities of growing sovereign debt. ... read more The Energy Report - A Day Of Reckoning
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 05 May 2010
When the greatest oil spill in decades doesn’t cause oil to rally, you know if you are a bull that you are going to have some problems. Still, there were others happenings to consider.
The mysteries of the smoke and mirrors of economic stimulus seemed to be revealed in the realities of growing sovereign debt. Yesterday as the markets questioned the realities of the Greek bail out, they seemed to realize that this was not the end of the story but perhaps only the beginning. ... read more The Energy Report - A pain in the back end and other locations
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 04 May 2010
You may not pay today but we will pay tomorrow. Fears of that the oil slick will drive prices higher in the short run are being abated as evidenced by the front end selling off but it is in the back end of the curve where we may feel the pain.
While the contango (meaning that prices are lower in the front dated futures contracts versus the longer dated contracts) has been wide for sometime reflecting inflation fears and improving demand scenarios for some time, yesterday's widening may be signaling fears of the long term political impacts of drilling expansion off shore. ... read more A pain in the back end and other locations
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 04 May 2010
You may not pay today but we will pay tomorrow. Fears of that the oil slick will drive prices higher in the short run are being abated as evidenced by the front end selling off but it is in the back end of the curve where we may feel the pain.
While the contango (meaning that prices are lower in the front dated futures contracts versus the longer dated contracts) has been wide for sometime reflecting inflation fears and improving demand scenarios for some time, yesterday's widening may be signaling fears of the long term political impacts of drilling expansion off shore. ... read more Worse than Valdez?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 03 May 2010
The Energy Report for Monday, May 3, 2010
The worst case scenarios continue to become possible as the news from the Gulf of Mexico continues to get worse. Alaska's Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said that the BP spill from the Deepwater Horizon could turn out to be worse than the Mobil Corp. Valdez spill in Alaska. Obama said that the spill was, “massive and potentially unprecedented environmental disaster” and could take many days to stop. ... read more The Energy Report - Worse than Valdez?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 03 May 2010
The worst case scenarios continue to become possible as the news from the Gulf of Mexico continues to get worse. Alaska's Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said that the BP spill from the Deepwater Horizon could turn out to be worse than the Mobil Corp. Valdez spill in Alaska. Obama said that the spill was, “massive and potentially unprecedented environmental disaster” and could take many days to stop. Traders are worried about the potential impact on oil prices. ... read more Bailouts Are Good For Oil
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 30 April 2010
The Energy Report for Friday, April 30, 2010
Bailouts are good for oil. If the Fed decision to keep rates low for an extended period against a back drop of an improving economy wasn’t enough to get you to buy oil, how about the umpteenth attempt to save Greece from bringing down the rest of the Euro Zone. It appears that the oil market thinks that with German employment numbers being strong and a bailout plan in place, it will be possible that this Greece fire might not spread. ... read more The Energy Report - Bailouts Are Good For Oil
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 30 April 2010
The Energy Report for Friday, April 30, 2010
Bailouts are good for oil. If the Fed decision to keep rates low for an extended period against a back drop of an improving economy wasn’t enough to get you to buy oil, how about the umpteenth attempt to save Greece from bringing down the rest of the Euro Zone. It appears that the oil market thinks that with German employment numbers being strong and a bailout plan in place, it will be possible that this Greece fire might not spread. ... read more Buy With The Blessing Of Your Federal Reserve
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 29 April 2010
The Energy Report April 29, 2010
Buy with the blessing of your Federal Reserve. Oil bulls just have to love the Federal Reserve who came out and said in their post rate decision statement to go ahead and buy some oil. Ok, I admit they did not quite put it that way but they might as well have. After telling the world that fed fund target rates would continue range of zero percent to 0.25 percent and stay there for an extended period they started to talk about how the economy was getting better. ... read more The Energy Report - Buy With The Blessing Of Your Federal Reserve
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 29 April 2010
Buy with the blessing of your Federal Reserve. Oil bulls just have to love the Federal Reserve who came out and said in their post rate decision statement to go ahead and buy some oil. Ok, I admit they did not quite put it that way but they might as well have. After telling the world that fed fund target rates would continue range of zero percent to 0.25 percent and stay there for an extended period they started to talk about how the economy was getting better. The Fed said that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is beginning to improve. ... read more Oil on Junk
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 28 April 2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Oil prices and commodities got slammed on the S&P downgrades. They sent Greece to junk and Portugal is headed in that direction. Once again oil traders are reminded how much of the price of oil is dependent on some semblance of market stability. With the Fed dead ahead, oil traders have to realize that the price of oil transcends what some consider traditional supply and demand fundamentals. It is also a reflection of how the world views the economy and the relative value of the currency backing this commodity. ... read more The Energy Report - Oil on Junk
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 28 April 2010
Oil prices and commodities got slammed on the S&P downgrades. They sent Greece to junk and Portugal is headed in that direction. Once again oil traders are reminded how much of the price of oil is dependent on some semblance of market stability. With the Fed dead ahead, oil traders have to realize that the price of oil transcends what some consider traditional supply and demand fundamentals. It is also a reflection of how the world views the economy and the relative value of the currency backing this commodity. ... read more Oil is Fed UP!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 27 April 2010
The Energy Report for Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Oil prices still are having a hard time following through on its breakout over $85 a barrel. Obviously you have to respect that fact that the market has broken out yet at the same time, the bulls have to wonder what the market is waiting for.
It is very possible that the market is waiting for reassurance and permission to buy from our very accommodative Federal Reserve. ... read more The Energy Report - Oil is Fed UP!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 27 April 2010
Oil prices still are having a hard time following through on its breakout over $85 a barrel. Obviously you have to respect that fact that the market has broken out yet at the same time, the bulls have to wonder what the market is waiting for.
It is very possible that the market is waiting for reassurance and permission to buy from our very accommodative Federal Reserve. ... read more The Energy Report - Solid Economic Data
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 26 April 2010
Solid economic data kets the oil bulls dreams alive in an impressive drive to end the week. The market is still getting support from the calendar and found comfort in the fact that housing seemed to blow away market expectations. Sales of new homes increased by a stunning 26.9% over February, inspired by federal tax incentives for buyers that are set to expire in days. Still, as exciting as the numbers were by historical standards, they were not anything to write home about nor do they suggest that without government help they can be repeated. ... read more Solid Economic Data
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 26 April 2010
The Energy Report for Monday, April 26, 2010
Solid economic data kets the oil bulls dreams alive in an impressive drive to end the week. The market is still getting support from the calendar and found comfort in the fact that housing seemed to blow away market expectations. Sales of new homes increased by a stunning 26.9% over February, inspired by federal tax incentives for buyers that are set to expire in days. ... read more The Energy Report - Deepwater Horizon Triumph and Tragedy
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 23 April 2010
The more you read about the tragedy that is unfolding in the Gulf of Mexico surrounding the Deepwater Horizon oil rig fire the more you realize the magnitude and the symbolism of what is happening. Obviously the loss of life is a reminder of the risks that those in the oil industry take on a daily basis to bring us products that we take for granted. To a larger extent the history of this rig is a reminder of the type of entrepreneurial spirit that has made this country great. ... read more Deepwater Horizon Triumph and Tragedy
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 23 April 2010
The more you read about the tragedy that is unfolding in the Gulf of Mexico surrounding the Deepwater Horizon oil rig fire the more you realize the magnitude and the symbolism of what is happening. Obviously the loss of life is a reminder of the risks that those in the oil industry take on a daily basis to bring us products that we take for granted. To a larger extent the history of this rig is a reminder of the type of entrepreneurial spirit that has made this country great. ... read more The Energy Report - Open The Flood Gates
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 22 April 2010
Open the flood gates. A flood of crude and gas weighed on oil as other commodities seemed to want to go higher. Does supply matter anymore? That was the question I heard more than any other as some were disappointed that we did not see a bigger bearish reaction to yesterday's Department of Energy weekly supply report as provided by their Energy Information Agency division. The EIA not only reported that oil demand hit the lowest level since December, as we are in the heart of shoulder season, but that crude oil inventories surged ahead by 1.9 million barrels last week. ... read more Open The Flood Gates
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 22 April 2010
Open the flood gates. A flood of crude and gas weighed on oil as other commodities seemed to want to go higher. Does supply matter anymore? That was the question I heard more than any other as some were disappointed that we did not see a bigger bearish reaction to yesterday's Department of Energy weekly supply report as provided by their Energy Information Agency division. The EIA not only reported that oil demand hit the lowest level since December, as we are in the heart of shoulder season, but that crude oil inventories surged ahead by 1.9 million barrels last week. ... read more The Energy Report - Crazy Contango, Oh My!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 21 April 2010
Crazy contango, oh my! Say good-bye to the May crude oil futures contract that went out in an impressive rally and a mission to close the wide spread between front end of the crude curve.
The oil market has been going contango crazy in recent weeks as bullish construed hopes ran high. Those dreams seemed to gain momentum when crude surged to a 17 month high in a volume deprived holiday week. Of course that was a precursor to near record volume and the inspiration that Iran might take oil and store it in tankers. ... read more The Energy Report - Crazy Contango, Oh My!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 21 April 2010
Crazy contango, oh my! Say good-bye to the May crude oil futures contract that went out in an impressive rally and a mission to close the wide spread between front end of the crude curve.
The oil market has been going contango crazy in recent weeks as bullish construed hopes ran high. Those dreams seemed to gain momentum when crude surged to a 17 month high in a volume deprived holiday week. Of course that was a precursor to near record volume and the inspiration that Iran might take oil and store it in tankers. ... read more Goldman Gets Rolled
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 20 April 2010
The Energy Report for Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Oil prices are beginning to shake off the fall-out from the Goldman Sachs fraud allegations yet at the same time, the market is worried about the longer term ramifications of these charges. Set aside the fact of Goldman’s guilt or innocence at this point, it's the larger issue of confidence in the overall market place that raises the largest concern. The timing of these charges that we now know was voted at the SEC along party lines makes one worry about the political influence over the market place. ... read more The Energy Report - Goldman Gets Rolled
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 20 April 2010
Oil prices are beginning to shake off the fall-out from the Goldman Sachs fraud allegations yet at the same time, the market is worried about the longer term ramifications of these charges. Set aside the fact of Goldman’s guilt or innocence at this point, it's the larger issue of confidence in the overall market place that raises the largest concern. The timing of these charges that we now know was voted at the SEC along party lines makes one worry about the political influence over the market place. ... read more Oil is Having a Hard Time Following Through
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 16 April 2010
The Energy Report, Friday April 16, 2010
Oil is having a hard time following through on its bullish momentum especially which is particularly disappointing to the bulls especially after China’s red hot GDP numbers. Strong growth numbers out of China seemed to not inspire the type of buying frenzy that one might imagine. Mixed data out of the US and the fact that oil should be getting close to a seasonal peak perhaps is weighing down the marketplace. ... read more The Energy Report - Oil is Having a Hard Time Following Through
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 16 April 2010
Oil is having a hard time following through on its bullish momentum especially which is particularly disappointing to the bulls especially after China’s red hot GDP numbers. Strong growth numbers out of China seemed to not inspire the type of buying frenzy that one might imagine. Mixed data out of the US and the fact that oil should be getting close to a seasonal peak perhaps is weighing down the marketplace. ... read more Forget those Fed Fund Futures! Oil is the key!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 15 April 2010
The Energy Report for Thursday, April 15, 2010
Ben Bernanke spoke yesterday and the oil market listened. Of course listening to Ben Bernanke and his comment about the price of oil made one wonder whether or not Big Ben gave traders the green light to buy oil. Among other things that the Fed Chairman said about the economy was that the current price of oil was not a threat to the economy. "At this point oil prices are not a serious threat to the recovery," Bernanke told a Congressional Committee. "Clearly if it moves a lot it would be a negative, so we have to watch it." ... read more The Energy Report - Forget those Fed Fund Futures! Oil is the key!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 15 April 2010
Ben Bernanke spoke yesterday and the oil market listened. Of course listening to Ben Bernanke and his comment about the price of oil made one wonder whether or not Big Ben gave traders the green light to buy oil. Among other things that the Fed Chairman said about the economy was that the current price of oil was not a threat to the economy. "At this point oil prices are not a serious threat to the recovery," Bernanke told a Congressional Committee. "Clearly if it moves a lot it would be a negative, so we have to watch it." ... read more Oil Tech
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 14 April 2010
How much oil does it take to run a computer? Strong earnings from Intel are helping drive oil higher overnight. No, it really is. And I can’t figure out where to put the oil in my computer!
Strong tech earnings are making the economy feel good about itself again and is putting the oil back on the bull market track, raising the question whether or not the world can afford $95 oil. ... read more Oil Tech
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 14 April 2010
How much oil does it take to run a computer? Strong earnings from Intel are helping drive oil higher overnight. No, it really is. And I can’t figure out where to put the oil in my computer!
Strong tech earnings are making the economy feel good about itself again and is putting the oil back on the bull market track, raising the question whether or not the world can afford $95 oil. ... read more April Fooling
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 01 April 2010
President Obama is going to open up some off shore drilling. April fool! No, I am not kidding but as exciting as that might be, the oil market is not reacting to drill, drill, drill but to jobs, jobs, jobs. A weak ADP employment report and today super hot data coming out of China was enough to make traders forget about a bearish supply report from the Energy Information Agency and the prospects of perhaps maybe someday more domestic oil and gas production. Oil prices are soaring to the major resistance of $85, an area that if taken out would break us out of almost a 17 month trading range. Of course it is not a breakout until it is so let’s focus on what is driving that the madness. ... read more April Fooling
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 01 April 2010
President Obama is going to open up some off shore drilling. April fool! No, I am not kidding but as exciting as that might be, the oil market is not reacting to drill, drill, drill but to jobs, jobs, jobs. A weak ADP employment report and today super hot data coming out of China was enough to make traders forget about a bearish supply report from the Energy Information Agency and the prospects of perhaps maybe someday more domestic oil and gas production. Oil prices are soaring to the major resistance of $85, an area that if taken out would break us out of almost a 17 month trading range. Of course it is not a breakout until it is so let’s focus on what is driving that the madness. ... read more The Energy Report - Springtime in the oil market
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 30 March 2010
Ah spring. The birds are chirping, the trees are budding and of course the oil market is rallying. Strong data on spending and a lot of springtime optimism set oil up for a big time rally, in fact the biggest in about 6 weeks. It is very possible that the rally would not have been as strong if it were not for the fact that many traders were absent as they prepared for Passover and the joys of spring break and Easter. That is not to say that the oil market did not have compelling reasons to rally because it did.The euro rallied as Greece sold a 5 billion euro 7 year bond issue. ... read more Springtime in the oil market
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 30 March 2010
Ah spring. The birds are chirping, the trees are budding and of course the oil market is rallying. Strong data on spending and a lot of springtime optimism set oil up for a big time rally, in fact the biggest in about 6 weeks. It is very possible that the rally would not have been as strong if it were not for the fact that many traders were absent as they prepared for Passover and the joys of spring break and Easter. That is not to say that the oil market did not have compelling reasons to rally because it did.The euro rallied as Greece sold a 5 billion euro 7 year bond issue. ... read more Range Bound
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 29 March 2010
The Energy Report for Monday, March 29 2010
We can talk about upcoming data from China or relief that the Greece crisis seems resolved for the moment but the truth is oil is still locked in a range. This is a market where the bullish and bearish forces have been in a stale mate and a quagmire of epic proportions. For every bullish argument there is a bearish argument to counter it as crude oil waits to find a definitive direction. ... read more The Energy Report - Range Bound
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 29 March 2010
We can talk about upcoming data from China or relief that the Greece crisis seems resolved for the moment but the truth is oil is still locked in a range. This is a market where the bullish and bearish forces have been in a stale mate and a quagmire of epic proportions. For every bullish argument there is a bearish argument to counter it as crude oil waits to find a definitive direction. ... read more The Energy Report - Greece is bad. Very, Very Bad!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 26 March 2010
Trichet trashed Greece. ECB head Jean Claude Trichet read Greece the riot act reversing course on the strengthening Euro and making the world think twice about a happy outcome after this Greek tragedy. Trichet scolded that Euro zone states need to be more responsible. ‘Everything going in the direction of euro zone members shying away from responsibilities is bad in our eyes”. How bad? Well “If the IMF or some other body exercises the responsibility in lieu of the Euro-group or instead of governments, it is evidently very, very bad," he said. ... read more The Energy Report - Greece is bad. Very, Very Bad!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 26 March 2010
Trichet trashed Greece. ECB head Jean Claude Trichet read Greece the riot act reversing course on the strengthening Euro and making the world think twice about a happy outcome after this Greek tragedy. Trichet scolded that Euro zone states need to be more responsible. ‘Everything going in the direction of euro zone members shying away from responsibilities is bad in our eyes”. How bad? Well “If the IMF or some other body exercises the responsibility in lieu of the Euro-group or instead of governments, it is evidently very, very bad," he said. ... read more The Energy Report - Big Build Bananza!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 25 March 2010
Maybe the oil bulls can take some comfort in the fact that oil was unable to close below $80 despite the fact that the euro hit a ten month low and the stock market actually closed lower. (It can do that you know.) Oil prices shook off a mighty crude oil inventory build according to the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency. The EIA reported that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by gigantic 7.3 million barrels from the previous week. ... read more The Energy Report - Big Build Bananza!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 25 March 2010
Maybe the oil bulls can take some comfort in the fact that oil was unable to close below $80 despite the fact that the euro hit a ten month low and the stock market actually closed lower. (It can do that you know.) Oil prices shook off a mighty crude oil inventory build according to the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency. The EIA reported that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by gigantic 7.3 million barrels from the previous week. ... read more Oil Bull Knockdown
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 24 March 2010
Oil bulls got a shot to the solar plexus from the American Petroleum Institute but it may be a downgrade from Fitch rating services that delivers the knockout blow. The American Petroleum Institute blindsided the global oil markets last night by reporting a spectacular 7.5 million barrel weekly build in US crude oil supplies. The oil seemed to come out of nowhere and made the oil bulls get nervous but the bulls vowed to wait for what the Department of Energy might say today. ... read more The Energy Report - Oil Bull Knockdown
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 24 March 2010
Oil bulls got a shot to the solar plexus from the American Petroleum Institute but it may be a downgrade from Fitch rating services that delivers the knockout blow. The American Petroleum Institute blindsided the global oil markets last night by reporting a spectacular 7.5 million barrel weekly build in US crude oil supplies. The oil seemed to come out of nowhere and made the oil bulls get nervous but the bulls vowed to wait for what the Department of Energy might say today. ... read more Jean Claude Trichet to save the day!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 23 March 2010
Wild ranges and a lot of action!
After it was all said and done, we basically ended up where we started. Oil prices were once again just a pawn of the foreign exchange market as the EURO started the day absolutely getting crushed over the Greek debt crisis. The Financial Times points out that the Euro hit the lowest level against the Swiss franc since the Euro came into existence in 1999. The Wall Street Journal said that the euro started the trading day on a weak footing after German Chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out discussion of an aid package for Greece when European leaders gather at a meeting scheduled for Thursday and Friday. ... read more The Energy Report - Jean Claude Trichet to save the day!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 23 March 2010
Wild ranges and a lot of action!
After it was all said and done, we basically ended up where we started. Oil prices were once again just a pawn of the foreign exchange market as the EURO started the day absolutely getting crushed over the Greek debt crisis. The Financial Times points out that the Euro hit the lowest level against the Swiss franc since the Euro came into existence in 1999. The Wall Street Journal said that the euro started the trading day on a weak footing after German Chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out discussion of an aid package for Greece when European leaders gather at a meeting scheduled for Thursday and Friday. ... read more The Energy Report - Finding The Right Balance
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 22 March 2010
The Energy Report for March 22, 2010
Oil prices are trying to find the right balance between strong Asian demand and the very real possibility of continued global central bank tightening. While all eyes were on China last week it was India that made the move to reign in red hot inflation, raising the pressure on China to join them in trying to avoid expanding an explosive inflationary bubble. ... read more Finding The Right Balance
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 22 March 2010
The Energy Report for March 22, 2010
Oil prices are trying to find the right balance between strong Asian demand and the very real possibility of continued global central bank tightening. While all eyes were on China last week it was India that made the move to reign in red hot inflation, raising the pressure on China to join them in trying to avoid expanding an explosive inflationary bubble. ... read more The Energy Report - Greece the Skids
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 19 March 2010
Greece the skids: Hey wait a minute! I thought the Greece debt cries was solved. Didn't we think that when S&P reaffirmed Greece’s debt rating and took them off the dreaded credit watch that ll was well? Silly me, or is it the silly markets that just want to sweep away the reality of any debt crisis and want desperately to believe that all is well in Greece and the rest of Europe. It was just last Tuesday when the Euro soared above 133770 and investors ran away from the dollar in an environment where interest rates are at zero for an extended period. ... read more Greece the Skids
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 19 March 2010
Greece the skids: Hey wait a minute! I thought the Greece debt cries was solved. Didn't we think that when S&P reaffirmed Greece’s debt rating and took them off the dreaded credit watch that ll was well? Silly me, or is it the silly markets that just want to sweep away the reality of any debt crisis and want desperately to believe that all is well in Greece and the rest of Europe. It was just last Tuesday when the Euro soared above 133770 and investors ran away from the dollar in an environment where interest rates are at zero for an extended period. ... read more The Energy Report - How natural gas production saved the global economy!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 18 March 2010
How natural gas production saved the global economy! So how is the Fed able to keep those low interest rates going and save the global economy? I think you have to give credit to our nation’s wonderful natural gas producers.
This week the Federal Reserve told us that the fed funds rate could stay exceptionally low because of subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations. ... read more The Energy Report - How natural gas production saved the global economy!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 18 March 2010
How natural gas production saved the global economy! So how is the Fed able to keep those low interest rates going and save the global economy? I think you have to give credit to our nation’s wonderful natural gas producers.
This week the Federal Reserve told us that the fed funds rate could stay exceptionally low because of subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations. ... read more The Energy Report - When OPEC Eyes Are Smiling?!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 17 March 2010
When OPEC Eyes Are smiling, sure 'tis like a morn in spring. In the lilt of OPEC cheating, you can hear cash register ring. When OPEC hearts are happy, all the sheiks are bright and gay, and when OPEC eyes are smiling, sure, they steal your cash away.
Sure and begorrah how about that smiling OPEC cartel? As OPEC meets on the Feast of St. Patrick it seems like the luck of the Irish is shinning down upon them. ... read more When OPEC Eyes Are Smiling?!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 17 March 2010
When OPEC Eyes Are smiling, sure 'tis like a morn in spring. In the lilt of OPEC cheating, you can hear cash register ring. When OPEC hearts are happy, all the sheiks are bright and gay, and when OPEC eyes are smiling, sure, they steal your cash away.
Sure and begorrah how about that smiling OPEC cartel? As OPEC meets on the Feast of St. Patrick it seems like the luck of the Irish is shinning down upon them. ... read more The Energy Report - You've Got A Friend
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 16 March 2010
When your down and troubled and you need a helping hand and nothing oh nothing is going right. Just close your eyes and think of Ben and soon he will be there to brighten even your darkest night. You’ve got a friend! The Fed has been the oil bull best friend but is that friendship going to start to become a little strained. With a better than expected jobs report and dissension within the committee the possibility of laying the groundwork for change is in the language in the much debated Fed Statement is rising. Let’s face it oil has been dependant on Fed policy and for all intents and purposes it has been a one sided relationship. ... read more The Energy Report - You've Got A Friend
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 16 March 2010
When your down and troubled and you need a helping hand and nothing oh nothing is going right. Just close your eyes and think of Ben and soon he will be there to brighten even your darkest night. You’ve got a friend! The Fed has been the oil bull best friend but is that friendship going to start to become a little strained. With a better than expected jobs report and dissension within the committee the possibility of laying the groundwork for change is in the language in the much debated Fed Statement is rising. Let’s face it oil has been dependant on Fed policy and for all intents and purposes it has been a one sided relationship. ... read more The Energy Report - The Great Fire Wall of China
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 15 March 2010
Google is 99.9% sure it is leaving China as the oil market not only has to deal with the upcoming Fed and OPEC meetings but will also have to focus on increasing tensions between the US and China.. The week ahead in energy will at least be eventful. China is upset with the US and President Obama’s calls on the Chinese to allow their currency to rise. China has been very busy over the weekend giving an ultimatum to Google to edit their content or leave which they most likely will do and they went out and bought a stake in an Argentinean oil company. China Premier Wen Jiabao gave a press conference that was very critical of the Obama administration. ... read more The Great Fire Wall of China
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 15 March 2010
Google is 99.9% sure it is leaving China as the oil market not only has to deal with the upcoming Fed and OPEC meetings but will also have to focus on increasing tensions between the US and China.. The week ahead in energy will at least be eventful. China is upset with the US and President Obama’s calls on the Chinese to allow their currency to rise. China has been very busy over the weekend giving an ultimatum to Google to edit their content or leave which they most likely will do and they went out and bought a stake in an Argentinean oil company. China Premier Wen Jiabao gave a press conference that was very critical of the Obama administration. ... read more The Energy Report - Absolutely Astonishing
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 12 March 2010
Oil prices are on the rise again as the International Energy Agency is the latest forecaster to increase their expectations for China oil demand. Yet the IEA went far beyond just increasing demand expectations for China they said that the demand growth that we have seen so far is astonishing. The IEA beat all the other forecasters by predicting that world demand will increase by 70,000 barrels a day to 86.6 million barrels or close to 1.6 million barrels more than a year ago. Yet what have captured the imagination of the marketplace were their comments that Chinese demand surged by an “astonishing,” 28 percent year-on-year in January. ... read more Absolutely Astonishing
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 12 March 2010
Oil prices are on the rise again as the International Energy Agency is the latest forecaster to increase their expectations for China oil demand. Yet the IEA went far beyond just increasing demand expectations for China they said that the demand growth that we have seen so far is astonishing. The IEA beat all the other forecasters by predicting that world demand will increase by 70,000 barrels a day to 86.6 million barrels or close to 1.6 million barrels more than a year ago. Yet what have captured the imagination of the marketplace were their comments that Chinese demand surged by an “astonishing,” 28 percent year-on-year in January. ... read more The Energy Report - HOT!HOT!HOT!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 11 March 2010
HOT! HOT! HOT! Inflation in China may be getting too hot to handle! Don't touch or you could get burned. Could emerging China bubbles turn the commodities bull market into rubble? China’s inflation rate for consumer prices came out at a much hotter than expected 2.7 percent. That was sizzling compared to Januarys 1.5 percent rise and it was also a 16 month high. This sharp increase will make Chinese officials worry about potential trouble spots and may make them more aggressive trying to battle those inflationary demons. ... read more HOT!HOT!HOT!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 11 March 2010
HOT! HOT! HOT! Inflation in China may be getting too hot to handle! Don't touch or you could get burned. Could emerging China bubbles turn the commodities bull market into rubble? China’s inflation rate for consumer prices came out at a much hotter than expected 2.7 percent. That was sizzling compared to Januarys 1.5 percent rise and it was also a 16 month high. This sharp increase will make Chinese officials worry about potential trouble spots and may make them more aggressive trying to battle those inflationary demons. ... read more The Energy Report - The API Catch Up
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 10 March 2010
It looks like the API is playing catch up to the Department of Energy. A massive crude build according to the American Petroleum Institute, along with big product draws is going to keep the oil market on edge.
The API released another shocker when they said that US oil inventories increased by an incredible 6.5 million barrels. Yet at the same time the API reported big time product draws. For gasoline the API reported supplies fell by 3.18 million barrels and gasoline by almost 3.18 million barrels. ... read more The API Catch Up
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 10 March 2010
It looks like the API is playing catch up to the Department of Energy. A massive crude build according to the American Petroleum Institute, along with big product draws is going to keep the oil market on edge.
The API released another shocker when they said that US oil inventories increased by an incredible 6.5 million barrels. Yet at the same time the API reported big time product draws. For gasoline the API reported supplies fell by 3.18 million barrels and gasoline by almost 3.18 million barrels. ... read more The Energy Report - China Appreciation Day
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 09 March 2010
Oil prices are under a bit of pressure to start the day as attention turns again to the forex markets. Comments from China about their currency and their foreign exchange reserves are capturing the attention of traders across the commodity spectrum. Is it possible that the Chinese are on the verge of letting the Yuan appreciate for the first time since July of 2008?
Market Watch News reported that Chinese central bank Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan said China will in due course move away from its current currency-exchange policy, indicating Beijing doesn't plan to keep the Yuan’s de-facto peg to the U.S. dollar indefinitely. ... read more China Appreciation Day
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 09 March 2010
Oil prices are under a bit of pressure to start the day as attention turns again to the forex markets. Comments from China about their currency and their foreign exchange reserves are capturing the attention of traders across the commodity spectrum. Is it possible that the Chinese are on the verge of letting the Yuan appreciate for the first time since July of 2008?
Market Watch News reported that Chinese central bank Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan said China will in due course move away from its current currency-exchange policy, indicating Beijing doesn't plan to keep the Yuan’s de-facto peg to the U.S. dollar indefinitely. ... read more The Energy Report - All is well
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 08 March 2010
All is well. One dose of a better than expected jobs report and all our troubles just go away. Traders fearful that snow storms would have added to the countries employment woes were pleasantly surprised when Friday’s employment report seemed to suggest that it's not quite as bad as feared. The February unemployment rate held steady at 9.7%, with 36,000 jobs lost. The consensus expectations were for the unemployment rate to climb to 9.8% and for 65,000 jobs to be lost. ... read more All is well
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 08 March 2010
All is well. One dose of a better than expected jobs report and all our troubles just go away. Traders fearful that snow storms would have added to the countries employment woes were pleasantly surprised when Friday’s employment report seemed to suggest that it's not quite as bad as feared. The February unemployment rate held steady at 9.7%, with 36,000 jobs lost. The consensus expectations were for the unemployment rate to climb to 9.8% and for 65,000 jobs to be lost. ... read more The Energy Report - Oil Held hostage Day 353
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 05 March 2010
It is almost been a year since the day the oil market was changed forever. After collapsing in a heap of deflationary despair, oil was saved by what could only be described as a historic government intervention. It was the day that the US Federal Reserve changed the world by printing more money and therefore, essentially putting a floor under the price of oil. It was the day that the Federal Reserve, after having nowhere to go on interest rates, made a move to save the banks and the economy by taking the unprecedented step to use quantitative easing in the United States to save our economy. This move of course changed the way oil moved and was valued. ... read more Oil Held hostage Day 353
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 05 March 2010
It is almost been a year since the day the oil market was changed forever. After collapsing in a heap of deflationary despair, oil was saved by what could only be described as a historic government intervention. It was the day that the US Federal Reserve changed the world by printing more money and therefore, essentially putting a floor under the price of oil. It was the day that the Federal Reserve, after having nowhere to go on interest rates, made a move to save the banks and the economy by taking the unprecedented step to use quantitative easing in the United States to save our economy. This move of course changed the way oil moved and was valued. ... read more The Energy Report - EURO Mania
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 04 March 2010
Who knew Greek austerity would feel so darned good. Oil prices soared on the backs of a surging euro dollar as the market seems to want to put Greece’s problems behind them. The euro became cool again at the expense of the greenback sending gold, silver and oil higher. Or maybe it was because the Justice Department was probing collusion among hedge funds betting against the Euro. No, not really. The truth is that with funds having a record short position in the euro, the Greek plan gave them reason to cover, leading to one right after another. ... read more The Energy Report - EURO Mania
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 04 March 2010
Who knew Greek austerity would feel so darned good. Oil prices soared on the backs of a surging euro dollar as the market seems to want to put Greece’s problems behind them. The euro became cool again at the expense of the greenback sending gold, silver and oil higher. Or maybe it was because the Justice Department was probing collusion among hedge funds betting against the Euro. No, not really. The truth is that with funds having a record short position in the euro, the Greek plan gave them reason to cover, leading to one right after another. ... read more The Energy Report - 80 Proof
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 03 March 2010
Oil traders may need a stiff drink after the wild end to yesterday’s trading session. Something strong like 80 proof or at the very least, proof that oil can close above 80. Oil prices failed to remain in octogenarian territory after a slow, relentless creeping rally that rejected a test of $81 and reverses all the way back into the 79 handle. For whatever reason the oil market is having a hard time staying above $80 as traders try to explain why oil prices were so strong yesterday in the first place. ... read more 80 Proof
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 03 March 2010
Oil traders may need a stiff drink after the wild end to yesterday’s trading session. Something strong like 80 proof or at the very least, proof that oil can close above 80. Oil prices failed to remain in octogenarian territory after a slow, relentless creeping rally that rejected a test of $81 and reverses all the way back into the 79 handle. For whatever reason the oil market is having a hard time staying above $80 as traders try to explain why oil prices were so strong yesterday in the first place. ... read more The Energy Report - Trying to Keep Positive
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 02 March 2010
You've got to accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative and latch on to the affirmative, don't mess with Mister In-Between. Oil tried to rally. It really did. It tried to ignore that pesky Mr. In-Between, a place where it seems the market is most comfortable. Oil rallied even as the dollar soared and the British pound plunged. It tried to soar with the stock market and tried to worry about one Iranian oil official saying he would cut off oil supply to Europe. It tried to focus on the positive economic news and ignore the negative. ... read more The Energy Report - Trying to Keep Positive
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 02 March 2010
You've got to accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative and latch on to the affirmative, don't mess with Mister In-Between. Oil tried to rally. It really did. It tried to ignore that pesky Mr. In-Between, a place where it seems the market is most comfortable. Oil rallied even as the dollar soared and the British pound plunged. It tried to soar with the stock market and tried to worry about one Iranian oil official saying he would cut off oil supply to Europe. It tried to focus on the positive economic news and ignore the negative. ... read more In like a lion and out like a lamb?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 01 March 2010
In like a lion and out like a lamb? Ok, I know it is a tired cliché about the month of March but probably apropos for the energy and stock markets. Last week’s blistering hot GDP at 5.9% coupled with some strong data out of the Euro zone this morning has the market charging, well, like a lion. But is this aggressive move sustainable when you see weaker than expected data out of China. And if the economic data is so darned good, then why is oil demand just so darned bad? ... read more the energy report - In like a lion and out like a lamb?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 01 March 2010
In like a lion and out like a lamb? Ok, I know it is a tired cliché about the month of March but probably apropos for the energy and stock markets. Last week’s blistering hot GDP at 5.9% coupled with some strong data out of the Euro zone this morning has the market charging, well, like a lion. But is this aggressive move sustainable when you see weaker than expected data out of China. And if the economic data is so darned good, then why is oil demand just so darned bad? ... read more The Energy Report - Oh No My Recovery is Nascent
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 26 February 2010
Hey maybe, just maybe mind you a "nascent" recovery isn't so bullish for oil after all. You think? Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke may have given oil a bit of a boost by his proclamation that interest rates will stay low and that the economy still needs his help seemed not to be as bullish for stocks and oil especially after weak durable goods report and weekly jobs number. In fact you could almost see the mood of the market shift as you glanced across the entirety of the commodity board. ... read more The Energy Report - Oh No My Recovery is Nascent
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 26 February 2010
Hey maybe, just maybe mind you a "nascent" recovery isn't so bullish for oil after all. You think? Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke may have given oil a bit of a boost by his proclamation that interest rates will stay low and that the economy still needs his help seemed not to be as bullish for stocks and oil especially after weak durable goods report and weekly jobs number. In fact you could almost see the mood of the market shift as you glanced across the entirety of the commodity board. ... read more Bens Magic
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 25 February 2010
Is Ben Bernanke losing his influence over the Energy Market? Oh sure bleak Ben told the market yesterday that interest rates would stay low for infinity and that the economy was not ready for the training wheels you come off but his words seemed to lack the wallop that his words had in the past. Oh sure we got a break in the dollar the stock market and oil dutifully rallied yet at the end of the day it does not seem to be a market game changer like Ben has given us in the past. ... read more the energy report - Bens Magic
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 25 February 2010
Is Ben Bernanke losing his influence over the Energy Market? Oh sure bleak Ben told the market yesterday that interest rates would stay low for infinity and that the economy was not ready for the training wheels you come off but his words seemed to lack the wallop that his words had in the past. Oh sure we got a break in the dollar the stock market and oil dutifully rallied yet at the end of the day it does not seem to be a market game changer like Ben has given us in the past. ... read more the energy report - I Have Confidence
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 24 February 2010
I have confidence in sunshine, I have confidence in rain, I have confidence that spring will come again. But confidence in the economy may knock the confidence out of me. Strength may not lie in numbers but the numbers are not showing strength.
What can only be described as a stunning drop in consumer confidence went a long way in shaking the confidence of even the most steadfast bull. ... read more I Have Confidence
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 24 February 2010
I have confidence in sunshine, I have confidence in rain, I have confidence that spring will come again. But confidence in the economy may knock the confidence out of me. Strength may not lie in numbers but the numbers are not showing strength.
What can only be described as a stunning drop in consumer confidence went a long way in shaking the confidence of even the most steadfast bull. ... read more Iran Back Down?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 23 February 2010
Oil is down overnight in part because it is possible that Iran is backing down on their nuclear ambitions. The AFP is reporting that Iran says they are ready to buy fuel for a nuclear reactor or swap its own stockpile of low-enriched uranium for the fuel but on its own territory. This is what has been proposed by Russia and others as an alternative to sanctions and a conflict. Whether or not this letter will appease the rest of the UN, Iranian critics or whether this is another stalling tactic remains to be seen but the oil market broke on this news. ... read more the energy report - Iran Back Down?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 23 February 2010
Oil is down overnight in part because it is possible that Iran is backing down on their nuclear ambitions. The AFP is reporting that Iran says they are ready to buy fuel for a nuclear reactor or swap its own stockpile of low-enriched uranium for the fuel but on its own territory. This is what has been proposed by Russia and others as an alternative to sanctions and a conflict. Whether or not this letter will appease the rest of the UN, Iranian critics or whether this is another stalling tactic remains to be seen but the oil market broke on this news. ... read more Don’t discount the impact of the discount rate increase
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 19 February 2010
Don’t discount the impact of the discount rate increase. The longest journey from the removal of extraordinary stimulus starts with the first step and that step has now been taken.
As the US stock market closed, the Federal Reserve raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans to 0.75 percent from 0.50 percent. The Fed wants to wean banks away from taking loans from them and push their lender back into the real world when they have to borrow money for their short term liquidly needs. ... read more the energy report - Don’t discount the impact of the discount rate increase
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 19 February 2010
Don’t discount the impact of the discount rate increase. The longest journey from the removal of extraordinary stimulus starts with the first step and that step has now been taken.
As the US stock market closed, the Federal Reserve raised the discount rate charged to banks for direct loans to 0.75 percent from 0.50 percent. The Fed wants to wean banks away from taking loans from them and push their lender back into the real world when they have to borrow money for their short term liquidly needs. ... read more the energy report - Have It Your Way
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 18 February 2010
Have it your way, have it your way. The bulls have it their way yet beware because today is a brand new day. With bond yields rising, the Fed Minutes, talking about an exit strategy and the Euro giving back most of its one day gains, the big question yesterday was why oil did not get crushed. If all of oil's strength was because of the Euro and the dollar then shouldn’t oil have fallen a lot harder?
Well obviously it is not all about the dollar and the Euro and the problems with Europe. ... read more Have It Your Way
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 18 February 2010
Have it your way, have it your way. The bulls have it their way yet beware because today is a brand new day. With bond yields rising, the Fed Minutes, talking about an exit strategy and the Euro giving back most of its one day gains, the big question yesterday was why oil did not get crushed. If all of oil's strength was because of the Euro and the dollar then shouldn’t oil have fallen a lot harder?
Well obviously it is not all about the dollar and the Euro and the problems with Europe. ... read more the energy report - Confidence Game
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 17 February 2010
The petroleum complex soared for a lot of reasons but confidence may be the best reason. Oil and its price are not just a reflection of supply and demand but also a reflection of confidence. Such as confidence in the economy or even more importantly confidence in the currency it is traded in as well as the confidence in the ability of certain countries around the globe and their ability to pay off debts. Oh sure, the list of reasons that caused oil to go up were many. You can start with the fact that Greece did not default on anything over the weekend but also because it appears that Greece can somehow restructure their debt and may not need a bailout after all. ... read more Confidence Game
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 17 February 2010
The petroleum complex soared for a lot of reasons but confidence may be the best reason. Oil and its price are not just a reflection of supply and demand but also a reflection of confidence. Such as confidence in the economy or even more importantly confidence in the currency it is traded in as well as the confidence in the ability of certain countries around the globe and their ability to pay off debts. Oh sure, the list of reasons that caused oil to go up were many. You can start with the fact that Greece did not default on anything over the weekend but also because it appears that Greece can somehow restructure their debt and may not need a bailout after all. ... read more the energy report - I have a Yen for oil
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 16 February 2010
Say goodbye to the Euro and hello to the Japanese yen. China may be raising reserve requirements to slow demand but today it is strong economic data out of Japan that seems to be giving oil a bit of a lift. Last week oil shuttered when China increased reserves on banks for a second time in a month. Yet that seems to be a bit of a distant memory this morning after strong data out of Japan. ... read more I have a Yen for oil
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 16 February 2010
Say goodbye to the Euro and hello to the Japanese yen. China may be raising reserve requirements to slow demand but today it is strong economic data out of Japan that seems to be giving oil a bit of a lift. Last week oil shuttered when China increased reserves on banks for a second time in a month. Yet that seems to be a bit of a distant memory this morning after strong data out of Japan. ... read more the energy report - To Greece with L-O-V-E.
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 12 February 2010
L is for the way you love to spend. O is for Oh gosh it has to end. V is very, very bad budgetary. E is even more cuts that even unions can’t ignore. Cash is all that they can give to you. Bailouts are just one but maybe two. Save Greece, the rest can make it, fix your budget and please don’t break it. Love was made for Greece and you. ... read more To Greece with L-O-V-E
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 12 February 2010
L is for the way you love to spend. O is for Oh gosh it has to end. V is very, very bad budgetary. E is even more cuts that even unions can’t ignore. Cash is all that they can give to you. Bailouts are just one but maybe two. Save Greece, the rest can make it, fix your budget and please don’t break it. Love was made for Greece and you. ... read more Bulls Get Bailed Out!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 11 February 2010
Greece bail out helps bail out the oil bulls and heavy lending in China and a tightening global supply picture, gives oil bulls some new life. First, the Greece bail out is going to happen as the EU President says a deal has been struck but European delicacy seems to suggest that bailout is kind of a harsh term. They would prefer rescue or help. One reason is that technically speaking, a bailout is technically illegal. Politics UK reports that an EU bailout of Greece is illegal under the Maastricht treaty. ... read more the energy report - Bulls Get Bailed Out!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 11 February 2010
Greece bail out helps bail out the oil bulls and heavy lending in China and a tightening global supply picture, gives oil bulls some new life. First, the Greece bail out is going to happen as the EU President says a deal has been struck but European delicacy seems to suggest that bailout is kind of a harsh term. They would prefer rescue or help. One reason is that technically speaking, a bailout is technically illegal. Politics UK reports that an EU bailout of Greece is illegal under the Maastricht treaty. ... read more the energy report - Grecian Formula
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 10 February 2010
Grecian Formula: It’s as easy and one two three, just add the cash and the debt just gradually fades away. Is there a Grecian formula to step in and bailout Greece? The market sure thought so as about 16 different headlines and stories seemed to suggest that some type of Greece bailout was imminent. As the stories flew so too did the euro, having its biggest rally against the dollar in five months, helping to drive up commodities across the board including oil. Still the question about whether or not Greece will get bailed out and who is going to do the bailing remains an open question. ... read more Grecian Formula
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 10 February 2010
Grecian Formula: It’s as easy and one two three, just add the cash and the debt just gradually fades away. Is there a Grecian formula to step in and bailout Greece? The market sure thought so as about 16 different headlines and stories seemed to suggest that some type of Greece bailout was imminent. As the stories flew so too did the euro, having its biggest rally against the dollar in five months, helping to drive up commodities across the board including oil. Still the question about whether or not Greece will get bailed out and who is going to do the bailing remains an open question. ... read more That Lost Bullish Feeling
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 09 February 2010
You’ve lost that bullish feeling, lost that bullish feeling, you’ve lost that bullish feeling and it’s gone! Oil is trying to find that bullish passion that it lost sometime ago. Yet even after the big oil breakdown last week the market failed to find the inspiration it needed to continue its assault on the downside. Oh sure the bulls were bloodied last week as the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) started to fall apart and are hesitant to step back into a market that has definably lost any semblance of what you would consider a bull market yet with a winter storm barring down on the north east and the heartland of the heating belt and the fact that the Euro seemed to stabilize oil tried to make a bit of a comeback. ... read more the energy report - That Lost Bullish Feeling
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 09 February 2010
You’ve lost that bullish feeling, lost that bullish feeling, you’ve lost that bullish feeling and it’s gone! Oil is trying to find that bullish passion that it lost sometime ago. Yet even after the big oil breakdown last week the market failed to find the inspiration it needed to continue its assault on the downside. Oh sure the bulls were bloodied last week as the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) started to fall apart and are hesitant to step back into a market that has definably lost any semblance of what you would consider a bull market yet with a winter storm barring down on the north east and the heartland of the heating belt and the fact that the Euro seemed to stabilize oil tried to make a bit of a comeback. ... read more the energy report - PIGS in space
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 05 February 2010
When I go down on the trading floor and talk about pigs, normally I am referring to hogs or pork bellies. But this week is something different. We'll focus our attention on Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain. Or you can exchange or add another I if you want to throw in Italy. In this case PIGS - or PIIGS - is not the other white meat, but a cause of great concern on the global economic scene.
Portugal now seems to be the main epicenter of the constantly shifting risk factors in the ongoing global economic crisis. ... read more PIGS in space
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 05 February 2010
When I go down on the trading floor and talk about pigs, normally I am referring to hogs or pork bellies. But this week is something different. We'll focus our attention on Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain. Or you can exchange or add another I if you want to throw in Italy. In this case PIGS - or PIIGS - is not the other white meat, but a cause of great concern on the global economic scene.
Portugal now seems to be the main epicenter of the constantly shifting risk factors in the ongoing global economic crisis. ... read more the energy report - Worms in Space
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 04 February 2010
Yesterday the petroleum markets were all about trying to digest the weekly inventory reports. Refineries are running at the lowest level since the 1980’s if you exclude time when refineries were shut down for hurricanes and this shows that demand is lousy. Yet at the same time there are fears that we are finally getting down to a point where refiners have cut back enough to meet slowing demand. Despite this fascinating study of supply versus demand, we will get more into what really made the market pop and drop and that was a story from the AP that was released again by the AFP on the Dow Jones commodity wire. ... read more Worms in Space
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 04 February 2010
Yesterday the petroleum markets were all about trying to digest the weekly inventory reports. Refineries are running at the lowest level since the 1980’s if you exclude time when refineries were shut down for hurricanes and this shows that demand is lousy. Yet at the same time there are fears that we are finally getting down to a point where refiners have cut back enough to meet slowing demand. Despite this fascinating study of supply versus demand, we will get more into what really made the market pop and drop and that was a story from the AP that was released again by the AFP on the Dow Jones commodity wire. ... read more You Have Got to Love that Groundhog
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 03 February 2010
Maybe that ground hog is something special after all. Oil futures fly after the ground hog say his shadow and predicted 6 more weeks of winter. And by the way no I did not see my shadow and yes I heard that one before. Still oil joined the stock market in the biggest two day rebound in over three months. Oils sudden resurgence comes on the backs of some renewed economic optimism especially in the manufacturing sector but also because of some concerns about the disruption of supply. RBOB Gasoline lead the rally gaining even more support from refineries that are closing on purpose and some that are not. ... read more the energy report - You Have Got to Love that Groundhog
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 03 February 2010
Maybe that ground hog is something special after all. Oil futures fly after the ground hog say his shadow and predicted 6 more weeks of winter. And by the way no I did not see my shadow and yes I heard that one before. Still oil joined the stock market in the biggest two day rebound in over three months. Oils sudden resurgence comes on the backs of some renewed economic optimism especially in the manufacturing sector but also because of some concerns about the disruption of supply. RBOB Gasoline lead the rally gaining even more support from refineries that are closing on purpose and some that are not. ... read more the energy report - What is good for Exxon Mobil is good for America
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 02 February 2010
The mood shift across the stocks and commodity markets was enough to wake a sleeping ground hog. Wake up you silly ground hog, the market seems to sense a change!
Gone is that sour and gloomy mood that was oh so January. February seems to have given the market some new life. What seemed to give us that sonic hedge hog boost? Well I guess you can say Exxon Mobil. Once again it seems that what is good for Exxon Mobil is good for America. ... read more What is good for Exxon Mobil is good for America
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 02 February 2010
The mood shift across the stocks and commodity markets was enough to wake a sleeping ground hog. Wake up you silly ground hog, the market seems to sense a change!
Gone is that sour and gloomy mood that was oh so January. February seems to have given the market some new life. What seemed to give us that sonic hedge hog boost? Well I guess you can say Exxon Mobil. Once again it seems that what is good for Exxon Mobil is good for America. ... read more the energy report - Crude Cush
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 01 February 2010
Oil prices have been under pressure from weak demand, a strong dollar and ample supplies but today geo-politics will keep the market from getting totally crushed. Militants in Nigeria are back at it and have ended a cease fire and rising tensions in the Persian Gulf could keep oil from totally falling out of bed. Still with a glut of oil and plenty of spare production capacity, this market is hanging by a thin thread.
Dow Jones reports that overnight Nymex crude went up slightly after Nigeria's MEND says militants sabotaged Shell pipeline but notes it wasn't directly responsible. ... read more Crude Cush
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 01 February 2010
Oil prices have been under pressure from weak demand, a strong dollar and ample supplies but today geo-politics will keep the market from getting totally crushed. Militants in Nigeria are back at it and have ended a cease fire and rising tensions in the Persian Gulf could keep oil from totally falling out of bed. Still with a glut of oil and plenty of spare production capacity, this market is hanging by a thin thread.
Dow Jones reports that overnight Nymex crude went up slightly after Nigeria's MEND says militants sabotaged Shell pipeline but notes it wasn't directly responsible. ... read more the energy report - A Friend in Ben
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 29 January 2010
Ben, behind your back you look no more, you found votes that you were looking for. Instead of rent I now will own, I’ll never pay the loan, and you my friend will see, my interest will be free. You’ve got a friend in me.
Ben, you may have cut a deal here and there but you felt not wanted anywhere. If you ever look behind and don't like what you find there’s one thing you should know you can always print some dough (you've got a place to go).
The banks used to say "I" and "me". Now it's "us", now it's "we". They used to say loan and fee then went bust, now it's freeze. ... read more A Friend in Ben
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 29 January 2010
Ben, behind your back you look no more, you found votes that you were looking for. Instead of rent I now will own, I’ll never pay the loan, and you my friend will see, my interest will be free. You’ve got a friend in me.
Ben, you may have cut a deal here and there but you felt not wanted anywhere. If you ever look behind and don't like what you find there’s one thing you should know you can always print some dough (you've got a place to go).
The banks used to say "I" and "me". Now it's "us", now it's "we". They used to say loan and fee then went bust, now it's freeze. ... read more the energy report - You Don’t Say
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 28 January 2010
Sometimes is not about what you say, it's about what you do not say. In the big Fed statement yesterday, one lone rouge inflation hawk dared to stand up and say, Hey guys, it is our job to worry about inflation. The lack of a comment about the housing market left traders wondering whether it was a glaring omission or perhaps it was an admission to the fact that the Fed is under a lot of political pressure. The Fed also changed their wording on inflation prospects from inflation would remained subdued for some time to it "likely" would remained subdued. ... read more You Don’t Say
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 28 January 2010
Sometimes is not about what you say, it's about what you do not say. In the big Fed statement yesterday, one lone rouge inflation hawk dared to stand up and say, Hey guys, it is our job to worry about inflation. The lack of a comment about the housing market left traders wondering whether it was a glaring omission or perhaps it was an admission to the fact that the Fed is under a lot of political pressure. The Fed also changed their wording on inflation prospects from inflation would remained subdued for some time to it "likely" would remained subdued. ... read more the energy report - The Exit Strategy Mirage
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 27 January 2010
We got to get out of this place, if it’s the last thing we ever do. It looked like we were getting so close to the exit just when you think you should be getting there suddenly it is further away. Or it disappears completely leading one to wonder whether it was ever there at all. It is the Fed day mirage with no exit strategy in sight that will leave energy traders on pins and needles. Oh sure we will get the latest data from the Department of Energy on supply and demand, but let’s face it, it may be all secondary if we get any surprises from the Fed. ... read more the energy report - China banks and a Bernanke bounce
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 26 January 2010
The oil bull got a new lease on life helped in part by a refinery fire and an oil spill but mainly because of that old Bernanke bounce. It appeared that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's appointment is now more likely and the oil market seems to love what that says about the status quo of cheap money. Of course the growing concerns over the Chinese banking sector and the continuing tightening of Chinese credit may quickly dampen some of that bullish enthusiasm. ... read more the energy report - China Banks and Bubbles
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 25 January 2010
If the Chinese banks have problems and dramatically slow lending, can the oil bull market continue? How about the carry trade? Concerns are mounting around the banks, raising the question as to whether the China commodity consuming gravy train will continue at the previous rapid pace. Overnight these concerns are coming to the forefront as Chinas fourth largest is looking to raise 40 billion yuan or the equivalent of $5.86 billion dollars to shore up its capital base and maintain its lending capacity. ... read more the energy report - They Are So Tired
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 22 January 2010
They're so tired, they haven't slept a wink. They're so to tired, their mind is on the blink. They wonder if they should get up and fix themselves a drink but what they really are wondering where all the bullish momentum has gone. I mean come on it seemed like the oil bulls were on top of the world as the year started on such a bullish note. The bulls had their arguments like cold weather and China but with every passing day those arguments become more tired.
On the other hand the bearish case is wide awake. ... read more They Are So Tired
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 22 January 2010
They're so tired, they haven't slept a wink. They're so to tired, their mind is on the blink. They wonder if they should get up and fix themselves a drink but what they really are wondering where all the bullish momentum has gone. I mean come on it seemed like the oil bulls were on top of the world as the year started on such a bullish note. The bulls had their arguments like cold weather and China but with every passing day those arguments become more tired.
On the other hand the bearish case is wide awake. ... read more the energy report - China Bubbles
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 21 January 2010
China bubbles in the wine. Makes me happy, makes me feel fine. The day after China told several major Chinese lending institutions banks to raise their reserve requirement ratio by half a percentage point, the Chinese economy continues to bubble. The National Bureau of Statistics of China reported that the Chinese economy grew at an expanded at a rate of 10.7%. That drove the full-year economic growth rate of 8.7% which was higher than the so called market expectations. Still while beating expectations, the market's immediate reaction was somewhat subdued. ... read more the energy report - China Bubbles
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 21 January 2010
China bubbles in the wine. Makes me happy, makes me feel fine. The day after China told several major Chinese lending institutions banks to raise their reserve requirement ratio by half a percentage point, the Chinese economy continues to bubble. The National Bureau of Statistics of China reported that the Chinese economy grew at an expanded at a rate of 10.7%. That drove the full-year economic growth rate of 8.7% which was higher than the so called market expectations. Still while beating expectations, the market's immediate reaction was somewhat subdued. ... read more the energy report - Ready to break or is it hit the brakes?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 20 January 2010
Can the oil bulls catch a break as the as the Senate Super Majority is broken? Well maybe they might have if it weren’t for the fact that China is hitting the brakes.
The election in Massachusetts gave oil bulls a thrill but news today out of China may change that bullish mood. The petroleum market reversed course yesterday as the market correctly predicted that Republican Scott Brown would pull off an upset victory in the Massachusetts special Senate campaign to fill Senator Ted Kennedy’s vacant seat. Or as Senate elect Brown would say "The people’s seat". ... read more Ready to break or is it hit the brakes?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 20 January 2010
Can the oil bulls catch a break as the as the Senate Super Majority is broken? Well maybe they might have if it weren’t for the fact that China is hitting the brakes.
The election in Massachusetts gave oil bulls a thrill but news today out of China may change that bullish mood. The petroleum market reversed course yesterday as the market correctly predicted that Republican Scott Brown would pull off an upset victory in the Massachusetts special Senate campaign to fill Senator Ted Kennedy’s vacant seat. Or as Senate elect Brown would say "The people’s seat". ... read more the energy report - You Lost that Bullish Feeling
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 19 January 2010
You lost that bullish feeling, lost the bullish feeling. You’ve lost that bullish feeling now it’s gone, gone, gone.
The petroleum complex lost that bullish feeling failing to build upon that cold weather inspired bullish promise. After starting the year like a bullish gangbuster the oil markets seem to be coming back to earth as the supply side just gets harder to ignore. Crude ended last week on a 5 day losing streak as US inventories increased and the International Energy Agency added to the building bearish momentum and the key area for oil to take out is the 7700 a barrel range. ... read more You Lost that Bullish Feeling
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 19 January 2010
You lost that bullish feeling, lost the bullish feeling. You’ve lost that bullish feeling now it’s gone, gone, gone.
The petroleum complex lost that bullish feeling failing to build upon that cold weather inspired bullish promise. After starting the year like a bullish gangbuster the oil markets seem to be coming back to earth as the supply side just gets harder to ignore. Crude ended last week on a 5 day losing streak as US inventories increased and the International Energy Agency added to the building bearish momentum and the key area for oil to take out is the 7700 a barrel range. ... read more the energy report - Demand Dreams
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 14 January 2010
Demand is back and we are going to be in trouble, hey la de da demand is back. All right based on the Department of Energy it is clear that demand is far from being back in the US but just you wait according to Goldman Sachs as they say that demand is going to be back to pre-recession levels by the third quarter of this year. What?? That is right. Peak demand fears may give way back to peak oil fears as Goldman says that strong demand from emerging markets will increasingly offset the lagging recovery in OECD demand. Are they right? ... read more Demand Dreams
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 14 January 2010
Demand is back and we are going to be in trouble, hey la de da demand is back. All right based on the Department of Energy it is clear that demand is far from being back in the US but just you wait according to Goldman Sachs as they say that demand is going to be back to pre-recession levels by the third quarter of this year. What?? That is right. Peak demand fears may give way back to peak oil fears as Goldman says that strong demand from emerging markets will increasingly offset the lagging recovery in OECD demand. Are they right? ... read more the energy report - Oil bulls have a bad day
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 13 January 2010
For the oil bulls it was just one of those days. Bad earnings from Alcoa set the stage for a weak commodity trade. Oil just could not get over the fact that the Chinese government told the Chinese banks that they would have to raise their reserve requirements, essentially taking back liquidity from the Chinese growth machine. When oil bulls try to justify the global glut of global supply, it is the growth in China mantra that they repeat over and over. That droning murmur may soften a bit as China seems to be ready to let some air out of its expanding bubble. ... read more the energy report - Oil bulls have a bad day
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 13 January 2010
For the oil bulls it was just one of those days. Bad earnings from Alcoa set the stage for a weak commodity trade. Oil just could not get over the fact that the Chinese government told the Chinese banks that they would have to raise their reserve requirements, essentially taking back liquidity from the Chinese growth machine. When oil bulls try to justify the global glut of global supply, it is the growth in China mantra that they repeat over and over. That droning murmur may soften a bit as China seems to be ready to let some air out of its expanding bubble. ... read more When bullish is not just bullish enough
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 12 January 2010
Oil looked a bit tired to start the week, unable to build on early gains inspired by a weekend of what should have been exceptionally bullish news. Whether it was the strong economic data out of China or the increasing tensions around the globe with regards to Nigeria and Iran, or the ongoing oil price dispute between Russia and Belarus, the bulls should have continued to have their way with this market the way they had the week before. ... read more the energy report - The Worlds Largest Exporter
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 11 January 2010
You take the oil in and you send the goods, out you take the oil in and you shake it all about. That’s what it’s all about. Last week it was all about the Fed and unemployment. Who is the largest exporter of goods in the in the world? If you said Germany, you would have been right last week. China lays claim to the title of world’s largest exporter this week. And this comes against a back drop of record crude imports hitting a 21.26 tons in December, setting the stage for an early energy rally. Now add to that the fact that the Nigerian Rebels are back at it and rising tensions surround Iran and it is a good morning to buy oil. ... read more The Worlds Largest Exporter
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 11 January 2010
You take the oil in and you send the goods, out you take the oil in and you shake it all about. That’s what it’s all about. Last week it was all about the Fed and unemployment. Who is the largest exporter of goods in the in the world? If you said Germany, you would have been right last week. China lays claim to the title of world’s largest exporter this week. And this comes against a back drop of record crude imports hitting a 21.26 tons in December, setting the stage for an early energy rally. Now add to that the fact that the Nigerian Rebels are back at it and rising tensions surround Iran and it is a good morning to buy oil. ... read more Vying to be Mr. Yen
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 08 January 2010
Whose yen is it anyway? Strong yen, weak yen and why in the world does the oil market care? Well the Japanese yen along with the dollar, have been bit players in the massive run in the oil. This year as traders looked for trades to carry them away, one trade that was very bullish for oil was the dollar/yen carry trade.
Oil soared as investor sold dollars because of our negative interest and bought other currencies, even the yen for heaven’s sake, that were yielding a higher interest rate. ... read more the energy report - As the Oil Turns
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 07 January 2010
Ok, the easy way to start today’s report is to say that oil hit a 15 month high in yesterday’s trade. Yet how we got there and why we are pulling back has more subplots than a daily television soap opera. There were so many stories pulling at the heart strings of the oil trader it is hard for anyone to keep them all straight. Some happy and some sad and some just plain freaky. Over night oil is pulling back on news that China's central bank raised interest rates on its three-month bills for the first time since August, a day after it promised to keep credit growth in check. ... read more the energy report - As the Oil Turns
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 07 January 2010
Ok, the easy way to start today’s report is to say that oil hit a 15 month high in yesterday’s trade. Yet how we got there and why we are pulling back has more subplots than a daily television soap opera. There were so many stories pulling at the heart strings of the oil trader it is hard for anyone to keep them all straight. Some happy and some sad and some just plain freaky. Over night oil is pulling back on news that China's central bank raised interest rates on its three-month bills for the first time since August, a day after it promised to keep credit growth in check. ... read more the energy report - Baby You Can Park my Car
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 06 January 2010
Baby you can park my car. Yes it might even start, baby you can park my car and baby it is still cold outside. America hibernates and parks their cars as gas consumption hits a 13 month low. The drop in demand led to big surge in gasoline inventories according to two widely followed industry reports.
The first hint that America seemed to stay home for the holidays came from the MasterCard Spending pulse report that showed that gasoline purchases fell to 8.93 million barrels a day which was down 3.5% from the week before and the lowest level of gasoline demand since September 2009. ... read more the energy report - Weather or not?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 05 January 2010
I guess we can talk about the cold but I think it's already talking for itself. Heating degree days are piling up in the energy complex but to get the full picture on this New Year surge of bullishness, you really have to look beyond your frost-bit nose. It is not so much the transitory issue that we are freezing that inspired the big move but a growing sense that interest rates will be frozen for a longer time than the market anticipated. You see, weather was a major factor that drove oil and heating fuels and orange juice yet other markets like gold and silver and copper soared as well. ... read more the energy report - Weather or not?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 05 January 2010
I guess we can talk about the cold but I think it's already talking for itself. Heating degree days are piling up in the energy complex but to get the full picture on this New Year surge of bullishness, you really have to look beyond your frost-bit nose. It is not so much the transitory issue that we are freezing that inspired the big move but a growing sense that interest rates will be frozen for a longer time than the market anticipated. You see, weather was a major factor that drove oil and heating fuels and orange juice yet other markets like gold and silver and copper soared as well. ... read more the energy report - A New Decade
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 04 January 2010
A new decade begins in energy trading with new challenges and obstacles in the markets' mission to assure the availability of supply. As the new decade begins, the greatest challenges ahead are said to be “peak oil” and global warming yet today the new decade in energy starts out worrying about the cold. The oil market and heating oil markets are soaring as the country is getting a big chill from coast to coast. The cold weather has gone global with cold temperatures even being reported in the Europe and China. ... read more the energy report - A New Decade
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 04 January 2010
A new decade begins in energy trading with new challenges and obstacles in the markets' mission to assure the availability of supply. As the new decade begins, the greatest challenges ahead are said to be “peak oil” and global warming yet today the new decade in energy starts out worrying about the cold. The oil market and heating oil markets are soaring as the country is getting a big chill from coast to coast. The cold weather has gone global with cold temperatures even being reported in the Europe and China. ... read more the energy report - New Year Traditions
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 29 December 2009
Energy disputes between the Ukraine and Russia are becoming as much of a New Year’s tradition as the Waterford ball falling in Times Square. Once again as the new year approaches, we have another dispute between Russia and the Ukraine that may or may not be settled and rising tensions in and around Iran may cause more caution from sellers as we get ready to celebrate another holiday. ... read more the energy report - New Year Traditions
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 29 December 2009
Energy disputes between the Ukraine and Russia are becoming as much of a New Year’s tradition as the Waterford ball falling in Times Square. Once again as the new year approaches, we have another dispute between Russia and the Ukraine that may or may not be settled and rising tensions in and around Iran may cause more caution from sellers as we get ready to celebrate another holiday. ... read more the energy report - Is this Santa for real?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 28 December 2009
Oil prices get swept up in a Santa Claus rally as light volume a strong stock-market as well as a surprise drawdown in inventory gives the illusion of strong demand. Ho, Ho, Ho! Yet we may find out that yes, Virginia, indeed this Santa rally, despite my better judgment, may be real if oil closes above $79 a barrel.
Last week the market got a bullish boost on a surprise draw down in oil supply when the Energy Information Agency, an arm of the Department of Energy, reported that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.9 million barrels from the previous week. ... read more the energy report - Is this Santa for real?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 28 December 2009
Oil prices get swept up in a Santa Claus rally as light volume a strong stock-market as well as a surprise drawdown in inventory gives the illusion of strong demand. Ho, Ho, Ho! Yet we may find out that yes, Virginia, indeed this Santa rally, despite my better judgment, may be real if oil closes above $79 a barrel.
Last week the market got a bullish boost on a surprise draw down in oil supply when the Energy Information Agency, an arm of the Department of Energy, reported that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.9 million barrels from the previous week. ... read more The Last Energy Report Before Christmas
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 22 December 2009
T’was the last Energy Report before Christmas, while all through the pits
the oil had rallied before taking a hit.
The traders put on their positions with care,
yet a stronger dollar and stock-market gave the buyers a scare.
In the upcoming year the buyers will start fearing the FED,
while visions of rate increases will dance in their heads. ... read more The Last Energy Report Before Christmas
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 22 December 2009
T’was the last Energy Report before Christmas, while all through the pits
the oil had rallied before taking a hit.
The traders put on their positions with care,
yet a stronger dollar and stock-market gave the buyers a scare.
In the upcoming year the buyers will start fearing the FED,
while visions of rate increases will dance in their heads. ... read more the energy report - Let It .....
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 21 December 2009
Oh, the weather outside is frightful and the Iranians are less than delightful. The Iraqis are telling them to go, let it snow, let it snow, let it snow. Oil shows no signs of stopping, but the supply should get us dropping. The temperatures are way down low, let it snow, let it snow. Let it snow.
Oil is rising as the East gets buried in snow, snow and more snow. Weather and geo-politics are supporting oil even in the face of overwhelming supply and a glut of spare production capacity. ... read more the energy report - Let It .....
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 21 December 2009
Oh, the weather outside is frightful and the Iranians are less than delightful. The Iraqis are telling them to go, let it snow, let it snow, let it snow. Oil shows no signs of stopping, but the supply should get us dropping. The temperatures are way down low, let it snow, let it snow. Let it snow.
Oil is rising as the East gets buried in snow, snow and more snow. Weather and geo-politics are supporting oil even in the face of overwhelming supply and a glut of spare production capacity. ... read more the energy report - I Really Can't Sell
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 18 December 2009
I really can't sell, baby it' cold outside. I've got to go long, baby its cold outside. I’ve been hoping that the oil would rise but not so fast. The carry trade has been so nice. But the bulls may start to worry if Fed gets in a hurry. The traders will be pacing the floor as they listen to the Iranians roar. So the traders may start to scurry because they don’t want holiday worries. But perhaps just one buy more. I’d better get long because baby it's cold outside. ... read more the energy report - I Really Can't Sell
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 18 December 2009
I really can't sell, baby it' cold outside. I've got to go long, baby its cold outside. I’ve been hoping that the oil would rise but not so fast. The carry trade has been so nice. But the bulls may start to worry if Fed gets in a hurry. The traders will be pacing the floor as they listen to the Iranians roar. So the traders may start to scurry because they don’t want holiday worries. But perhaps just one buy more. I’d better get long because baby it's cold outside. ... read more Getting So Much Better All The Time
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 17 December 2009
The Feds got to admit it's getting better, better, a little better all the time. It cannot get no worse. The Fed has to admit it's getting better, better. It's getting better since you've been mine, getting so much better all the time.
The Fed did not give us an exit strategy but they did give us a timeline (oh no, now the enemy can wait us out) for ending purchases of mortgage backed securities. ... read more Getting So Much Better All The Time
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 17 December 2009
The Feds got to admit it's getting better, better, a little better all the time. It cannot get no worse. The Fed has to admit it's getting better, better. It's getting better since you've been mine, getting so much better all the time.
The Fed did not give us an exit strategy but they did give us a timeline (oh no, now the enemy can wait us out) for ending purchases of mortgage backed securities. ... read more the energy report - Oil Is Fed UP
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 16 December 2009
Oil finally got up off the mat, ignored a soaring dollar and it got lifted in a bout of demand optimism off a better than expected industrial production number. Ok it helped that the market was oversold and the session was less than exciting, yet the rally still seems to suggest that the market may still have some life or maybe just some short covering ahead of the Fed. ... read more the energy report - Oil Is Fed UP
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 16 December 2009
Oil finally got up off the mat, ignored a soaring dollar and it got lifted in a bout of demand optimism off a better than expected industrial production number. Ok it helped that the market was oversold and the session was less than exciting, yet the rally still seems to suggest that the market may still have some life or maybe just some short covering ahead of the Fed. ... read more the energy report - Nothing is happening yet Everything Is
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 15 December 2009
Wow. For a day without a lot of market movement there was so much that seemed to be happening. Things like the Dow Jones closing above 10500 for the first time since October of 2008. Or what about the fact that oil closed lower for nine straight sessions; the first time that has happened in eight years. But all of that seemed to be secondary to the news that Exxon Mobil made a big leap into a major unconventional gas play by purchasing XTO Energy INC. in a stock deal totaling $31 billion dollars in cash and the assumption of $10 billion is debt giving the company what they say is the largest unconventional portfolio in the industry. ... read more the energy report - Nothing is happening yet Everything Is
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 15 December 2009
Wow. For a day without a lot of market movement there was so much that seemed to be happening. Things like the Dow Jones closing above 10500 for the first time since October of 2008. Or what about the fact that oil closed lower for nine straight sessions; the first time that has happened in eight years. But all of that seemed to be secondary to the news that Exxon Mobil made a big leap into a major unconventional gas play by purchasing XTO Energy INC. in a stock deal totaling $31 billion dollars in cash and the assumption of $10 billion is debt giving the company what they say is the largest unconventional portfolio in the industry. ... read more the energy report - Dubious Dubai
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 14 December 2009
Dubai gets a bailout and the risk appetite tries to come back but oil is still being held back by a load of supply. Supply gluts put oil back into a rut on signs that OPEC is cheating more each day. OPEC compliance to production targets fell to just 58% which is the worst score for the cartel since the financial crisis began. The biggest cheaters were Iran and Angola but also, believe it or not, Nigeria's production has come back much faster than expected after the country was plagued with rebel attacks on its infrastructure. ... read more the energy report - Dubious Dubai
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 14 December 2009
Dubai gets a bailout and the risk appetite tries to come back but oil is still being held back by a load of supply. Supply gluts put oil back into a rut on signs that OPEC is cheating more each day. OPEC compliance to production targets fell to just 58% which is the worst score for the cartel since the financial crisis began. The biggest cheaters were Iran and Angola but also, believe it or not, Nigeria's production has come back much faster than expected after the country was plagued with rebel attacks on its infrastructure. ... read more |
