 The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 03 September 2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 1’29 lower at 130’20. This mornings Employment Report showed a decline in non-farm payrolls of 54K versus expectations of a decline of 120K. The market movement speaks for itself, the report was favorable for the economy and negative to Bonds. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is now at 6’29 premium the Bonds. I recommend liquidating this spread position and standing aside until next week. ... read more  The Energy Report - Welcome To September!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 03 September 2010
Forget all of that economic doom and gloom because that was so August! September has come and hope is rising. Maybe, just maybe, things were not as bad as it seemed and maybe having total petroleum supplies at all time highs really does not matter. You see in a world where the Fed always has your back it might be wise to not get to pessimistic. Remember the Fed has the printing press and they have promised to use it if needed. Of course oil had other scares to worry about. ... read more  Daily Forex Update: USD/CHF
autochartist.com - 03 September 2010
The downtrend on the USD/CHF continues. Downtrends present three possible entry opportunities: continuation, correction, or reversal. Due to the downtrend’s strength it’s very likely that a continuation and/or a correction (also known as a Retracement) will occur. The decision to focus on more selling pressure comes primarily from the Channel Down pattern alert, though also from the seven-bar Autochartist Initial Trend reading that accompanies it. The Initial Trend reading signals that significant bearish momentum remains behind the price action. ... read more Daily Commodities Update: Silver
autochartist.com - 03 September 2010
After a brief correction lower on August 30, Silver was able to continue its climb higher after buying support was found along 19.33 and prior resistance at 19.52 was broken. The acceleration higher shows that the bulls are ready to challenge the May 13 high—also a one-year high—at 19.84. The momentum that might accompany a break of such a psychological level could attract even more buying momentum. ... read more  Daily Fundamental Analysis - Good Day For Risk Management
bforex Research - 03 September 2010
The USD traded in range yesterday as the broad markets turned in tentative results as investors await today’s Non Farm Employment Change numbers from the States. The weekly Unemployment Claims almost hit the estimated mark head on Thursday, but the Factory Orders in the U.S. were weaker. Today’s jobless number is forecasted to be minus -101k, slightly better than the previous month’s (if job loss can be called better). Investors will be primed for any surprises, but taking into context that we are entering a holiday weekend in the States the question may become – who will be around to take advantage of the outcome? ... read more  The Grain Report - Three Days
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 02 September 2010
We're at a very interesting point of the year in grains. Harvest is beginning so were equally hearing as much bullish yield news as bearish. The Bears talk of the miracle Of biogenetic seeds while the Bulls look at the weather being too hot and dry in the southern Delta and Eastern Grain belt to see anything other than lower yields. All the weekly crop condition reports each Monday now go to the sidelines as funds look to the harvest for final crop variances. Next week all attention turns to the Friday, September 10 U.S.D.A. monthly crop report. ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 02 September 2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 11 lower at 132’27. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 8’06 premium the Bonds on the Dec. contract. A liitle history on this trade: We are currently losing about $1000 since we originally put this spread on a few weeks ago in Sept. contract and then rolling it into Dec. This mornings weekly report on Initial Unemployment Claims showed a decline of 7,000 versus a pre-report estimate of down 3,000. This is not exactly good news for the economy but better than expected. Near term support for Dec. Bonds is currently 132’08 and resistance 134’06. ... read more The Energy Report - ISM Into The Wild Blue Yonder Flying High Into The Sky
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 02 September 2010
Where the heck did that come from? The Institute for Supply Management gave the market just what the doctor ordered with a shocking good reading on manufacturing. Why was it so shocking?
Well some of the regional manufacturing reports like the Philly Fed and the Empire State numbers were so lousy. Maybe the Chicago Purchasing Manger report should have given a clue but instead of lousy we go the first increase in four months with an expansive jump to 56.3, ... read more Daily Forex Update: AUD/USD
autochartist.com - 02 September 2010
The AUD/USD rallied from 0.8911 to the current level of 0.9107 by the end of Wednesday’s session. This steep ascent was the result of the Australian Dollar’s strength versus a very weak U.S. Dollar as U.S. equities rallied throughout the trading day.
The Triangle breakout from 0.9020 pushed the AUD/USD higher towards prior resistance at 0.9080; this was quickly broken as the bulls continued to rally the pair through the “big figure” of 0.9100, ... read more Daily Commodities Update: U.S. Light Crude
autochartist.com - 02 September 2010
U.S. Light Crude enjoyed its largest single-day rally since the climb through 80.00 on August 2. While the bulls certainly enjoyed the August 2 move, the rally throughout Wednesday’s session was markedly more important in terms of establishing buying support near the bottom of a large intraday Triangle on the 240-minute time frame. ... read more  GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF SEPT.2ND Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -Rally
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - 02 September 2010
Overview: Markets again bouncing off support on good data from China, Australia, US ISM Manufacturing report, though somehow manage to ignore negative US ADP jobs data. ECB rate decision and statement, along with US pending existing home sales are the key calendar items still to come today after great Swiss retail sales and poor Aussie trade balance figures. Friday’s US jobs reports could well decide how the week ultimately looks, especially if there is a decisively strong beat or miss of the forecasted -101k. ... read more Daily Fundamental Analysis - Mixed Data Abounds
bforex Research - 02 September 2010
USD
The markets showed just how divergent they can be on Wednesday. Wall Street finished the day with large gains, supposedly based on the positive numbers coming from the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The USD traded weaker against the EUR before this data had come out however, and the greenback managed to still gain against the GBP. Also flying in the face of the better than expected Manufacturing report was a worse than expected ADP Non Farm Employment Change. In other words yesterday’s gains on Wall Street must be looked at with suspicion. ... read more Daily Technical Analysis - The Next Few Days May Determine True USD Strength
bforex Research - 02 September 2010
EURUSD:
The EUR has been consolidating below the 50 day moving average, after breaking below it, 2 weeks ago. It seemed unable to sustain a close above 1.27 and it could not close above it’s 100 day MA as well. However, Yesterday’s price action finally lifted the EUR across its 100 day MA as it closed right at the 50 MA. If the EUR can follow yesterday’s price action with another win, especially above 1.29 then the EUR will look to extend it’s gains over the short term. However, if the EUR falls back below the 100 MA, then a bearish EUR sentiment will remain intact. ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 01 September 2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 1’02 lower at 133’31. Some constructive Global economic news out of China and Australia have rallied equities and consequently set the Bonds back this morning. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread has narrowed some 20 points this morning putting the spread at 8’25 premium the Bonds. Tomorrow will be the weekly Unemployment Report and Friday the monthly Jobs Report. The ADP Private Sector Jobs Report was -10k well below the expected +17K, ... read more The Energy Report - Earl, The Grinch That Stole Labor Day
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 01 September 2010
Earl, the Grinch that Stole Labor Day. All of the Who’s down in Whoville may be safe but it seems Hurricane Earl is bent on washing out and stealing their Labor Day fun! The holiday weekend may wash away for many states up and down the East coast. As Hurricane Earl barrels down it will bring a crashing end to the summer gasoline demand season that was already not up to par with market expectations. ... read more GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF SEPT.1ST Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex – Risk Bounce?
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - 01 September 2010
Overview: Markets again bouncing off support on good data from China, Australia. However, UK Mfg PMI misses badly, and day’s results likely to be determined by US Mfg PMI and ADP NFP later today.
STOCKS: US: Mixed – Equities remained in a tight trading range. For the sixth time since August 24th, the 1040 support level for the S&P 500 held, and the index closed fractionally higher, with the other major US indices closing just above or below their openings, reflecting continued indecision about the near term trend. ... read more Daily Fundamental Analysis - ISM Data Could Provide Surprises
bforex Research - 01 September 2010
USD
The USD traded in range against the EUR on Tuesday and managed to gain a bit versus the GBP. Trading remained rather tentative as the U.S. produced a mixed bag of data for investors to study before the onslaught of jobless releases gets underway today. While the SP/CS Composite-20 HPI and the CB Consumer Confidence readings both bettered their estimates, the Chicago PMI Index came in worse. Today the ADP Non Farm Employment Change number is on the calendar and is expected to have an outcome of 20k. ... read more Daily Technical Analysis - Forex
bforex Research - 01 September 2010
GOLD:
We have commented before that Gold is trading the technicals perfectly. When Gold stumbled in late July it originally fell through its 50 day moving average and eventually its 100 day MA. Gold found Support at a key Fibonacci Retrace level near 1,160 which also coincided with mid term Support as shown by the black horizontal line. Gold then bounced off Support and yesterday’s price action saw it take out key Resistance just above 1,240. That breach of Resistance suggests Gold will attempt to break it’s all time high and then accelerate even higher before once again retracing. ... read more Daily Forex Update: EUR/CHF
autochartist.com - 01 September 2010
The downtrend on the EUR/CHF moved sharply lower today as the Swiss Franc gained against all major currencies—and the downtrend on the EUR/CHF shows how much the Franc continues to gain against the Euro. Negative sentiment is established enough that the bears will wait and sell into any rally. Therefore, identifying resistance levels within the downtrend can help locate short-sell zones (though the pair must first correct higher). ... read more Daily Commodities Update: Gold
autochartist.com - 01 September 2010
After a dramatic rally higher, which resulted in a strong intraday uptrend, Gold’s short-term chart looks ready for a correction lower. Small corrections did occur as Gold approached the eventual session high; however, prices were unable to sustain the steep uptrend and the 15-minute time frame now seems ready to roll over. When it comes to reversals however, a sentiment shift must take place in order to get sufficient follow-through: with the Channel Up pattern alert, just such a reversal opportunity may be on the horizon. ... read more The Grain Report - What A Start
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 31 August 2010
WHAT A START………..We started the week's reports with our weekly export inspection report .This report is important because it's a gauge of demand. We have 2 reports each week that the government informs us exactly how demand is going. Once the supply side of the market is known, then demand will become the driving force weekly export inspection report comes every Monday at 10 A.M. Central Time.
Wheat inspections were 25 million bushels and that was up from last years 16m.b. bushels and our four-week average of 19m.b. ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 31 August 2010
Financials: Dec. Bonds are currently 20 higher at 134’23. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 9’02 premium the Bonds. This puts the current loss on the spread from the initial trade in the Sept. contract at about $2500. At this point I will be glad to limit the losses and give it another day or so to see if the Bonds retreat. The Bonds and the spread have now gained back everything they lost last Friday, forming a possible double top. ... read more The Hurricane Threat!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 31 August 2010
The Energy Report for Tuesday, August 31, 2010
The Hurricane Threat! Many oil traders when they think about the impact of hurricanes on the oil market most often focus on the threat to supply. Yet the truth is more often than not hurricanes are more of a threat to demand then they are to supply. That is definitely the case when it comes to Hurricane Earl, not to mention tropical storm Fiona, Hurricane Danielle and a storm to be named later. ... read more Daily Forex Update: USD/CAD
autochartist.com - 31 August 2010
The Forecast area of a Completed Pattern alert is in many ways an extension of the support and resistance found in the patterns themselves. Forecasts offer insight into potential floors and ceilings, which can help identify future trading ranges and exhaustion areas. A pair of current Forecast areas can be seen on the 30-minute chart of the USD/CAD: this pair has been moving higher and lower within a wide, sideways range, exhausting and reversing as prices reach the overbought ceiling and the oversold floor. ... read more Daily Commodities Update: US Light Crude
autochartist.com - 31 August 2010
The downtrend on U.S. Light Crude’s 30-minute chart was in large part due to weaker U.S. equities. The Falling Wedge pattern has managed to contain the bearish sentiment with support at 7525 (X). This lower support line could allow the bulls to find some footing, which would in turn cause the bears to take profit; both of the scenarios simultaneously would allow the U.S. Light Crude market to rally. ... read more Weekly Forex Update: USD/JPY
autochartist.com - 31 August 2010
The USD/JPY has stalled at the Falling Wedge pattern’s downtrend line resistance after the emergency meeting by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) failed to create the desired yen weakness. While the BOJ measures were intended to stop the yen’s advance against currencies worldwide, the announcement created nothing more than a quick bounce that traders sold into on the USD/JPY. ... read more Weekly Commodities Update: Silver
autochartist.com - 31 August 2010
Silver has been moving higher as the bulls try to reach the trading range’s upper levels which have been in place since mid-June. The June highs at 1945 and 1927 have identified the ceiling with which the current push higher must contend. Most recently, Silver peaked near the top of the Autochartist Forecast area at 1935; the same Forecast area has identified a layer of resistance between 1879 and 1935 (F). After breaking higher through the Falling Wedge pattern on the daily time frame at 1810 (E), ... read more GLOBAL MARKET BRIEF 8/31 Mid-Day GMT: Stocks, Commodities, Forex -Red September?
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - 31 August 2010
Overview: Markets Painted Red. A bounce lower off of resistance on profit taking following Friday’s bounce off of support on bargain hunting and short covering. In sum an indecisive market likely to remain within the past week’s trading ranges until the balance of the abundant top tier calendar events becomes decisively positive or negative enough to justify a drive above or below the past week’s trading ranges. As noted in our weekly outlook, markets are expecting more bad news confirming a slowdown throughout the developed world and even China. ... read more Daily Fundamental Analysis - Economic Concerns = Caution
bforex Research - 31 August 2010
USD
The USD continued its strong pace against the EUR and GBP on Monday as it moved to the stronger parts of it recent range. Safe haven pressure was the story of the day as Wall Street struggled and all the major indexes suffered losses. The U.S. released light data yesterday including Personal Spending and the results were near expectations. The gist of the day belonged to the languishing sentiment that has carried over from the negative opinions that have been expressed much of August. ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 30 August 2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 25 higher at 134’15. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 8’26. losing 10 points for the day. On Friday Bonds were were more than 2’00 points lower and the 10 Yr. Note/ Bond spread came in by more than a full point. Today I recommend rolling the spread into the Dec. contracts as the Dec. will be considered lead contract staring tomorrow and Sept. will be deliverable. This morning U.S. Personal Income came it at +0.2% as compared with with an estimate of + 0.3%.Consumer spending was up 0.4%, in line with expectations. Near term support for Dec. Bonds is currently 131’26 and near term resistance 134’16. ... read more The Energy Report - Big Bad Ben!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 30 August 2010
Big Bad Ben! Commodity bears be on notice: Ben is coming to run that big bad deflation out of town. Ben Bernanke has made it clear that the Fed will step up if prices go down. Those words should bring comfort to commodity bulls that have been under assault from an array of weakening economic indicators. That worn out song “for an extended period” may change to "forever and a life time" and the Fed stands at the ready by the printing presses ready to print at a moment’s notice if price fall too far. ... read more Daily Forex Update: USD/CAD
autochartist.com - 30 August 2010
The rollover on the USD/CAD’s 240-minute chart has finally been confirmed, with bears pushing prices lower through the Rising Wedge pattern’s uptrend line support. Since the rejection along 1.0650 and the drop lower through 1.0600 there has been a slow but steady shift in the bullish sentiment of the USD/CAD. The Rising Wedge has triggered a pattern reversal at 1.0580 (X). The low, one-bar Autochartist Initial Trend reading confirms that the previous uptrend within the Rising Wedge stalled into a narrow, ... read more Daily Commodities Update: Silver
autochartist.com - 30 August 2010
Silver’s intraday climb is losing buying momentum due both to sellers waiting just above 1900 putting pressure on the rally and the profit-taking from short-term bulls prior to the markets closing for the weekend. Prices on the 60-minute chart are perched just above uptrend line support of the Channel Up pattern at 1900.80 (X). These ten ticks around the 1900 price level hold the key to whether we see a continuation or a reversal of both the pattern and the intraday trend. ... read more Summer Trading Will Soon End
bforex Research - 30 August 2010
Friday came and went with all the force of a feather. The currencies and the broad markets traded in rather tight ranges most of the day putting into focus the amount of caution that prevails and the fact the summer is still in force. The USD found itself going into the weekend with plenty of its gains made the previous two weeks – holding. The Preliminary GDP results from the U.S. were unspectacular as they basically hit their targets. Ben Bernanke followed the statistics up with a couple of pronouncements at a central bankers meeting by stating the obvious, ... read more  The Bond Bulletin - GDP...not so bad say Treasury futures traders
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 27 August 2010
Sometimes news that is bad, but not as bad as expected is interpreted and being "good news" and that is exactly what happened with today's GDP report. A few months ago, the markets would have cringed at a growth rate of 1.6% but with expectations for the figure to be 1.4% or much less, it was a breath of fresh air. Also a bit bearish for bonds was a slightly hotter than expected GDP deflator.
As always, Ben Bernanke testimony stole some of the thunder from economic news. ... read more The Stock Index Report - Stock index futures bulls might have pulled it off
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 27 August 2010
It has been a long and hard week for stock market optimists. Bad news after bad news has put unrelenting pressure on equities but today's trade might offer enough momentum to fend off a slide in the S&P to the 1,000 area.
Second quarter GDP was revised lower as expected, but the news wasn't as bad as most had anticipated and more importantly what the markets had priced in. As of now, it is believed that the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 1.4% last quarter as opposed to what many believed would be much worse. ... read more Another Dip- Maybe-Maybe not
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 27 August 2010
Thursday brought us our weekly export sales report. Wheat sales were strong at 1.077 M.M.T. Key world buyer Egypt was in for 135 T.M.T. That’s going to be the key to near and long term U.S. exports thru year end as Egypt last year solely bought Russian wheat and snubbed their old friend and trading partner the U.S. Now we’re their buddy again as Russia suspended wheat exports until December 31 due to drought. The Egypt business is the tie breaker in world business as they import more wheat each month than any other country. ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 27 August 2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 5 higher at 135’11. This mornings Jobless Claims Report showed a decline of 37,000 versus expectations of a decline of 10,000. Yesterday the market climbed to an interday high of 136’31 on por housing and durable goods numbers before turning around a closing slightly lower. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently unchanged for the day at 9’09 premium the Bonds. I am staying with the position for the moment with the intention of rolling the position into the Dec. contract by Monday as the Dec. will become the lead contract. Near term support is currently 134’12 and near term resistance yesterday’s high of 136’31. ... read more Daily Forex Update: GBP/USD
autochartist.com - 27 August 2010
The uptrend on the 60-minute chart of the GBP/USD has lost bullish momentum over the past 35 candles; subsequently, what was initially a correction to Channel Up support has now transitioned to a pattern reversal. The question now is: what is the likelihood for follow-through considering the weaker U.S. Dollar and Friday’s U.K. Revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) release? The uptrend line breakdown down signals a bearish shift. However, with the near-term low at 1.5505 being so close to the reversal, ... read more Daily Commodities Update: Gold
autochartist.com - 27 August 2010
Traders should consider multiple patterns and time frames before entering a trade. Comparing the key levels that appear when there are multiple and overlapping alerts can unveil powerful entry options for both sides of the market. At key price levels, market sentiment will be expected to accerlerate, stall or reverse; these key price levels are commonly found within chart patterns.
Gold’s 30-minute chart has been in a shallow downtrend that has recently lost much of its bearish momentum (as confirmed by the one-bar Autochartist Initial Trend reading). ... read more Daily Fundamental Analysis - GDP Reports & Central Bankers
bforex Research - 27 August 2010
The USD traded in range against the major currencies for much of Thursday as traders became increasing cautious due to the data scheduled for today and news events that may unfold too. While the weekly Unemployment Claims turned in a slightly better figure than expected it was certainly not rosy and continues to show that the jobless situation may be actually worsening. Today the U.S. will release its Preliminary GDP and a figure of only 1.5% is expected. The U.K. will also be publishing its Revised GDP report today. ... read more The Energy Report - When Bad News Becomes Good News
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 26 August 2010
When bad news becomes good news: Oh sure the economic data did not get any better. New homes sales were a disaster and the Energy Information Agency report was very bearish yet the good news is that a lot of the bad news was already priced in. Now doesn’t that make you feel better? Yes things are lousy but as bad as they are at this point in time we actually priced in that things were even worse! Yippee!! Time to celebrate! Forget that doom and gloom of Tuesday. Now its doom and zoom as the market tries to tell itself hey nothing can be that bad! Can it? Well I hate to be a bummer but it can. ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds higher, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 26 August 2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 5 higher at 135’11. This mornings Jobless Claims Report showed a decline of 37,000 versus expectations of a decline of 10,000. Yesterday the market climbed to an interday high of 136’31 on por housing and durable goods numbers before turning around a closing slightly lower. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently unchanged for the day at 9’09 premium the Bonds. I am staying with the position for the moment with the intention of rolling the position into the Dec. contract by Monday as the Dec. will become the lead contract. Near term support is currently 134’12 and near term resistance yesterday’s high of 136’31. ... read more Daily Forex Update: USD/CAD
autochartist.com - 26 August 2010
The USD/CAD has been overbought on the daily chart, with the pair climbing to resistance between 1.0680 and 1.0700. The exhaustion that is expected to stall the rally to this level (and potentially press the USD/CAD lower once again) comes from the distribution market cycle in which the daily chart has found itself all summer.
The recent rally pushed prices to the intraday double top along 1.0664 and 1.0668, an area that has now twice sent prices lower, and is currently where selling pressure waits. ... read more Daily Commodities Update: High Grade Copper
autochartist.com - 26 August 2010
The breakdown on High Grade Copper’s daily chart is subtle, but the move’s significance could be big for the bears. The selling pressure that finally drove Copper lower from late July through the current August range traded through the floor at 32200, which may signal the beginning of a sentiment shift from neutral to bearish.
Daily Copper traded higher from mid-July to the beginning of August before prices congested into a sideways market near the top of the rally. ... read more Daily Fundamental Analysis - Bad Data Becoming The Norm
bforex Research - 26 August 2010
USD
Additional poor data was reported from the U.S. on Wednesday as the New Home Sales completely missed its estimate. The outcome of 276k was far short of the 333k expectation. And troubling to investors was that the previous month’s total was revised downwards too, following in the footsteps of the Existing Home Sales data reported a day earlier. Topping off this wreckage were ugly Core Durable Goods Orders which came in with a number of minus -3.8% compared to the forecast of plus 0.6%. ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 25 August 2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 23 higher at 136’15. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is now at 9’24 premium the Bonds. To say that I am currently on the wrong side of this market would be an understatement given the current losses. However, I feel that I will be right for the long term. Yesterday a disappointing Existing Home Sales report showed a decline of 27.2% which caused the market to rally to new recent highs. This mornings Durable Goods report came in at +0.3% versus expectations of 2.8%. Durable Goods ex-transportation was down by 3.8%. ... read more Daily Commodities Update: Feeder Cattle
autochartist.com - 25 August 2010
Feeder Cattle’s 15-minute chart has been trading within a range as the market congested into a distribution cycle: the four-bar Autochartist Initial Trend reading confirms that prices are moving in a wide, sideways range. The volatility that accompanies a distribution market cycle makes breakouts like this one difficult to gauge. After a pattern break, prices tend to exhaust at nearby resistance levels and lack the organization for sustained follow through. ... read more Still We Look To Find A Reason To Believe
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 25 August 2010
The Energy Report for Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Still we look to find a reason to believe. If I listened long enough to you, a bullish case I guess you could make do, knowing that supplies are high worldwide. Still I look to find a reason to believe. The bulls need something to believe in as a plunge in existing homes sales is another dagger in the heart of the bullish case.
The drop caught many by surprise as the existing home sales hit the lowest level since 1995 and fell by a whopping 27.2%. ... read more Daily Forex Update: EUR/CHF
autochartist.com - 25 August 2010
The downtrend on the EUR/CHF has been trending lower, and during Tuesday’s session broke through the July 1 low at 1.3074, down to 1.3016. This price represents a multi-year low for the pair, and if the EUR/CHF can pierce 1.3000 the continuation could accelerate even lower. However, as prices trade lower toward a whole, round number such as this, active buying support tends to be present. If that is the case in the EUR/CHF, the shorter-term intraday time frames will start to cycle out of their downtrending market cycles and break higher through uptrend line resistance. ... read more Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 25 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - 25 August 2010
Overview
Another knock for the risk markets Tuesday with Stock markets lower, across the board. Yesterday also saw major moves in the JPY with USDJPY breaching its 1995 low of 84.45.
Asian stocks fell on Wednesday, with Japan’s Nikkei at a 16-month low, as investors sold riskier assets after a spate of worrying U.S. economic data, while the yen slipped from its lows on a report Tokyo was considering weakening its currency. ... read more Daily Technical Analysis - The Dollar Rally According To Fibonacci
bforex Research - 25 August 2010
EURUSD:
The EUR closed below both the 100 day and 50 day moving averages. The candle that caused the fall also initially broke below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retrace level. This level is generated by using the low of 2010 followed by the recent high at 1.33. Yesterday’s price action bounced off the 50% Retrace level before actually pushing the EUR higher on the day. The next several days will be crucial in determining the direction of the EUR over the short run. The 50 MA is poised to cross above the 100 MA which provides support for the EUR to again move higher. ... read more Daily Fundamental Analysis - Housing Data Confirms Doubts
bforex Research - 25 August 2010
USD
Existing Home Sales in the U.S. plunged according to Tuesday’s report and this confirmed ‘whispers’ that had surrounded the number before its release. The USD traded in a stable manner against the EUR and GBP yesterday and held onto its gains made earlier. Wall Street declined before the issue of the housing figures and equities essentially moved cautiously thereafter. Today New Home Sales statistics will be published and an outcome of 333k is anticipated. Also Core Durable Goods Orders will be brought forth, but investors will keep their eyes glued on the housing sector data. ... read more The Grain Report - Month ending looming
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 24 August 2010
We started Monday with our weekly export inspection report at 10 am central time showing 21.4 million bushels of wheat was inspected by the u.s.d.a. unchanged from the week prior, up from a year ago of 17.8 and 4 week average of 18 m.b. The number is bullish in the big picture of strengthening demand off world production short falls but not a big enough number on the week to suggest panic buying.
Corn inspections were 37.6 m.b versus 32.8 the week prior and 4 week average of 36 m.b. ... read more Daily Commodities Update: Natural Gas
autochartist.com - 24 August 2010
The intraday 15-minute chart of Natural Gas has broken higher through Triangle pattern resistance at 4075 (E). Low bullish momentum accompanied the breakout higher through the downtrend line, as confirmed by the three-bar Autochartist Breakout reading. Based on a scale of one to ten, a three-bar reading suggests that prices simply traded through the resistance when the Triangle pattern failed to offer room to move within the narrowing range. This should not be confused with momentum, though it remains a valid long entry. ... read more Weekly Commodities Update: U.S. Light Crude
autochartist.com - 24 August 2010
With a volatile uptrend that began in late May, the U.S. Light Crude market maintained a strong bullish sentiment that was recently tested by a Channel Up pattern breakdown through 7728 (E); this reversal came as crude was pulling back sharply from a two-month uptrend. While the break lower is accompanied by some negative market sentiment, the area from 7379 to 7004 (F) should be watched closely for potential buying support. ... read more Daily Forex Update: AUD/USD
autochartist.com - 24 August 2010
The AUD/USD has transitioned out of the daily chart’s uptrend and into a narrow, sideways range. This, in turn, has put the slightly longer-term 60- and 240-minute intraday time frames in a distribution market cycle, which means that the price action is moving sideways in a wide and volatile range. A shallow Falling Wedge Emerging Pattern has alerted on the 240-minute chart with a five-bar Autochartist Initial Trend reading. This reading points to a trending pattern that continues to develop within a non-trending market. In fact, because of the distance between the upper line at 0.8983 (A) and the lower line at 0.8835 (B), prices are likely to exhaust and reverse—this was demonstrated by the price action going into Monday’s U.S. session close. ... read more Weekly Forex Update: USD/CHF
autochartist.com - 24 August 2010
The rally in the USD/CHF pushed the short-term intraday time frames into an uptrend to start the week. The question now is: how much longer will the bullish momentum last?
The downtrend on the 240-minute chart is strong, confirmed by a ten-bar Autochartist Initial Trend reading. The Channel Down formation is therefore more likely to set up either an Autochartist Retracement/Correction (ARC) entry or an Autochartist Continuation of the Trend (ART) entry; both would capitalize on the downtrend moving lower from current levels. ... read more The Energy Report - Dancing With Wolves
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 24 August 2010
Dancing with wolves: You know every once in a while someone defines what you have been trying to say and does it a way that is clear and concise and in terms so clear that you have to say yes, that is exactly what I have been trying to say. For months I have been telling you that despite the fact that I am long term bearish on oil I felt the better way to play this market was not to be married to either a dogmatically bull or bear position but to take advantage of the ranges. I said don’t be a hero, oil is making wide swings. ... read more Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 24 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - 24 August 2010
Overview
Japan’s Nikkei average hit a 15-month closing low below 9,000 points on Tuesday, with hedge funds and foreigners seen selling amid mounting concern about the authorities’ inaction on a strong yen, which threatens a fragile economic recovery. The euro hit a nine-year low against the yen on Tuesday as the loss of key technical support led speculators to short the currency in the hope of forcing stop-loss sales against both the yen and the dollar. Crude oil fell almost 1 percent on Tuesday, down for a fifth day, under pressure from weakness in gasoline which fell to a 6- month low as the U.S. driving season draws to a close without triggering a stockpile drop. ... read more Daily Fundamental Analysis - Housing Sector Woes In Focus
bforex Research - 24 August 2010
USD
Continuing its strong run under a haze of nervous trading in equities the USD propelled to higher values against the EUR and GBP. The greenback is starting to approach its spring time values against both the currencies as risk adverse movement has taken hold. The U.S. didn’t release major data on Monday, but today Existing Homes Sales figures are on schedule and investors have been warned that housing sector numbers may prove ugly. The estimated outcome is 4.68m, which would be well below the previous month’s result of 5.37m. ... read more  FX Weekly - Preview: 23rd - 29th August 2010
Alpari Research - 23 August 2010
This coming week contains several intriguing data releases (US GDP, US new home sales, EU PMI’s and UK GDP) but overall the macro data calendar is pretty light. Other themes could come forth and dominate however. BoJ intervention in ongoing JPY strength is unlikely out of the blue but if the Fed administers a fresh policy change and expands its balance sheet further, we could see US yields declined sharply and so would USD/JPY.
European auctions, although small, could potentially spring a surprise and dominate. ... read more FX Weekly - Review: 16th - 22nd August 2010
Alpari Research - 23 August 2010
USD
A risk-off week ensured the Dollar stayed well supported alongside CHF and JPY - the Dollar Index failed to breach 82 as US data was mostly short of expectations. Although IP data indicated gradual expansion (1% vs. 0.5% exp.), the all important labour sector continued to raise concerns amongst investors with unemployment claims staying persistently high (500,000 vs. 478,000 exp.) and when viewed in comparison to previous readings, a gradual uptrend in claims is beginning to emerge. ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 23 August 2010
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 9 lower at 133’23. The long 10 Yr. Notes/ short Bond spread is currently at 8’11 premium the Bonds (narrowing by 4 points). My objective for this spread still remains in the 6’15 area. Near term support is currently the 132’00 area and near term resistance just above 135’00. I still remain negative this market as long as the yield on the 30 Yr. Bond remains under 4%.
Grains: On Friday Nov. Beans closed 8 cents lower, Dec. Corn 7 cents higher and Dec. Wheat 2 lower. ... read more All The News That Did Not Happen
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 23 August 2010
The Energy Report for Monday, August 23, 2010
I guess before we start to talk about all news that might drive energy trading, let’s talk about the factors that many of you thought might drive the market this week but did not. I heard from some that they thought that this weekend Israel would bomb Iran’s nuclear sites. Did not happen.
Others were worried that the market would be impacted by what is now tropical storm Danielle. ... read more Daily Forex Update: GBP/CHF
autochartist.com - 23 August 2010
The GBP/CHF has been moving sharply lower on the daily time frame. The slight bounce at 1.6016 has transitioned the downtrending market cycle across the 15-, 30-, and 60-minute charts. The Autochartist Initial Trend reading for the Falling Wedge pattern alert on the 60-minute chart suggests that the negative sentiment that helped create this formation is actually lessening; at one bar, the reading reflects the fact that prices have flattened out and are trading in a narrow, sideways range. ... read more Forex, Commodities & Stocks Outlook 23 August 2010
Cliff Wachtel I AVA FX - 23 August 2010
Overview
The U.S. dollar held steady on Monday, retaining most of the gains it made late last week when growing worries about the global economy prompted investors to park funds in the world’s most liquid currency, while the Australian dollar slid on political uncertainty.
Japanese shares extended losses on Monday amid worries a strong yen would derail the fragile economic recovery, while the Australian dollar recovered after falling to a one-month low on inconclusive weekend elections. ... read more Daily Technical Analysis - The Picture Can Change When Price Intercepts A Moving Average Cross
bforex Research - 23 August 2010
EURUSD:
After falling through 1.29 six days ago the EUR has failed to generate a close back above that level after several attempts. The EUR has found short term Support at the 100 day moving average as price action on Friday bounced off that level. However, a close below the 50 day MA may have the EUR testing lows near 1.2550. Yet, the 50 day MA is upward sloping and poised to cross above the 100 MA. If that occurs and the 50 day MA acts as EUR Support, it may provide the necessary momentum to keep EUR bulls in the game and push the EUR back above Resistance at 1.30. ... read more Daily Fundamental Analysis - Safe Haven Trading In Vogue
bforex Research - 23 August 2010
USD
With little in the way of data and only existing sentiment to trade on the USD moved to the stronger realms of its value on Friday against the EUR and GBP. Wall Street continued to turn in lackluster results and the greenback seemingly found safe haven backing before going into the weekend. The question hovering over investors internationally is what the impact from another economic downturn in the U.S. will cause. ... read more Daily Commodities Update: Feeder Cattle
autochartist.com - 23 August 2010
Feeder Cattle’s intraday uptrend has carried prices higher to a ceiling that, with selling pressure positioned at 11638 (A) and 11657 (B), may be forming a double top. This is the first sign of trouble for the bulls, who have enjoyed a rally during the past five trading sessions.
The Channel Up pattern alert indicates nearby support at the lower uptrend line at 11577 (X). This will be the level to watch for two of the three trending pattern entry strategies that might trigger. ... read more Daily Commodities Update: US Light Crude
autochartist.com - 20 August 2010
Traders took back the gains from Wednesday’s trading session after selling pressure at 7600 sent U.S. Light Crude prices lower to the current support level at 7400. Prices on the 240-minute chart did little more than correct higher to downtrend line resistance, at which point the bears pushed the market lower to continue the longer-term intraday trend; this negative sentiment has helped form a shallow Channel Down pattern over the past 25 candles. ... read more The Grain Report - Seasonal winning
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 20 August 2010
Thursdays weekly export sales report came out as big on the demand side as expected. Wheat sales were 1.412 m.m.t. a new marketing year high since June 1st the beginning of wheat’s marketing year. This was 63% over our strengthening four week average. Biggest buyer was number one world wheat importer Egypt in for 594 t.m.t. Well, Egypt who snubbed the U.S. last year for Russian wheat, has become our good trading buddy again as Russia has suspended exports. ... read more The Bond Bulletin - Weekly jobless claims ignites Treasury futures
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 20 August 2010
Bond and note futures traded quietly lower throughout the night but the early morning release of new filings for unemployment hit the airwaves, all "heck" hit the fans. At one point during the session, the long bond was up over a handle and a half to touch upon the 135 level in the September futures contract. The 10-year note reached a high of 126'05 before stabilizing.
The market's complacency was all but wiped away as it discovered 500,000 new filings for unemployment benefits in the most recent week. ... read more The Stock Index Report - Options expiration halts stock index futures rally
C. Garner I DeCarley Trading - 20 August 2010
A number that used to be considered a C in terms of merit and validity has become a market-moving event. Weekly jobless claims (yes, that's right the volatile weekly number that was previously nearly irrelevant) has been receiving increasingly more attention.
Initial jobless claims measure the number of filings for state jobless benefits and is known for being relatively volatile. ... read more Slip Sliding Away, Slip Sliding Away
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 20 August 2010
The Energy Report for Friday, August 20, 2010
Slip sliding away, slip sliding away. You know the nearer your destination the more you're slip sliding away and away we go. The economic recovery is slip sliding away as the market starts to brace for a potential double dip as US data goes sour. When the jobless claims came out much higher than expected and the Philly Fed flopped, instead of an economic recovery being nearer to its destination, the more it's slip sliding away. ... read more |
