 The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 03 February 2012
Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 1’26 lower at 142’25 and the 10 Yr. Note 21 lower at 131’17. This morning’s monthly Jobs Report showed in an increase in non-farm payrolls of 243,000 vs. expectations of 130,000. The unemployment rate was a reported 8.3%. Needless to say, a strong report. We remain spread long the 5 Yr. Note/ short the 10 Yr. Note which has narrowed 13 points this morning to 7’23 premium the 10 Yr. , which puts us even on this position. If the Bonds should continue to trade lower from present levels, you might consider going short either Dec. 2012 or June 2013 Eurodollars. ... read more  The Energy Report - The Wolf Is At The Door
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 03 February 2012
The oil market is getting less rattled by the headlines surrounding Iran. Iranian threats to shut down the Straits of Hormuz or cut off supply to Europe in a preemptive strike, have been like the old story of "the Little Boy Who Cried Wolf". So is it any wonder that the market is ignoring some of the provocative headlines coming from Iran. It seems that the oil market has been getting prepared for this show down for months and we have the oil supplies to prove it. ... read more  Daily Commodities Update: Natural Gas
autochartist.com - 02 February 2012
Jonah S. Ford - Nymex Natural Gas futures slipped further underwater in Wednesday’s trading session to retest the multi-year lows set at the beginning of January. This price action confirmed an earlier breakout pattern identified on the Autochartist 15-minute time frame. With oil futures continue hovering at or above $100 a barrel and a strong energy sector overall, these sell-offs in natural gas may be establishing a long term bottom at these levels.
The Pennant chart pattern illustrated here shows the narrowing range between support and resistance levels between the two swing lows in the price. ... read more Daily Forex Update: AUD/HKD
autochartist.com - 02 February 2012
Dima Chernovolov - AUD/HKD has recently completed the high Quality Inverse Head and Shoulder chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the 4-hour charts. The overall Quality of this chart pattern is rated at the 8 bar level as a result of the maximum Initial Trend (rated at the 10 bar level), below-average Uniformity (4 bars) and high Clarity (9 bars). This chart pattern continues the long-term predominant uptrend visible on the daily, weekly and the monthly AUD/HKD charts. This chart pattern reverses the previous short term downward correction from the resistance area close to the round price level 8.3000. ... read more  Forex - Facebook Going Public
bforex Research - 02 February 2012
Yesterday was one to remember on Wall Street, with Facebook filing for an initial public offering which could value the social media giant between 75 billion and 100 billion dollars. Facebook’s goal is to raise 5 billion dollars when it starts to sell shares in the spring. The company has produced over one billion dollars in profits last year. Founder and the brains behind Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg, was apparently less than thrilled in the past about the company going public and how such a move would create some negativity in the corporate culture. It seems that the rather dreamy dollar figure was enough to change his mind. ... read more  The Big Picture
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 02 February 2012
Tim Hannagan is one of the nation’s most prominent grain analysts. His report for Thursday, Feb. 2:
Corn fundamentals remain constant as we enter next week. Cash prices being offered at U.S. shipping ports to meet export demand remain 40 to 80 cents over March futures, a sign that crop problems in South America have importers turning to the U.S. to fill needs.
The drought in Mexico has also contributed to a wave of exports into Asia. ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 02 February 2012
Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 10 higher at 144’21 and the 10 Yr. Note 4 higher at 132’03. Yields are still hovering just below 3.0% on the Bonds and just below 1.9% on the 10 Yr. Note. As I have mentioned over the past few months, I do not want to trade the Bonds or 10 Yr. Note from the long side with yields below 3.0% and 2.0% respectively. I still find resistance in the Bonds in the 145’16-146’16 levels and look for short term trades from the short side of the market at these levels. This morning, Initial Jobless Claims were down 12K vs. expectations for a drop of 7K. Non-farm productivity was up 0.7% as expected. We remain spread long Mar. 5 Yr. Notes/ short Mar. 10 Yr. Notes at 7’23 premium the 10 Yr. Notes in anticipation that the spread will narrow. This spread is currently at 8’01 premium the 10 Yr. The market awaits tomorrow’s monthly Unemployment Report. ... read more The Energy Report - Is Exxon Mobil Stupid?
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 02 February 2012
Stupid is as stupid does and after Exxon Mobil, the world’s largest publicly traded oil company, reported net income of $9.4 billion for the quarter, up from $9.25 billion the year before and revenue of $121.6 billion, up 16 percent from the year before, T. Boone Pickens seemed to suggest that they were stupid. You see Mr. Pickens, according to the AP, after his company, Clean Energy Fuels, announced a deal with truck maker Navistar to make more vehicles that run on the abundant fuel and build more fueling stations, ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 01 February 2012
Financials: Mar. Bonds arecurrently 22 lower at 144’24 and the 10 Yr. Note 6 lower at 132’02. The ADP Private Sector Jobs report this morning showed an increase of 170,000 jobs as expected. Due out at 9:00 will be Construction Spending and the ISM Manufacturing Index. We remain spread long 5 Yr. Notes/ short 10 Yr. Notes.
Grains: This morning Mar. beans are 10’4 higher at 1209’4, Mar. Corn 9’2 higher at 648’2 and Mar. Wheat 11’6 higher at 677’6. I feel these markets are currently in resistance. ... read more The Energy Report - Not Buying It
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 01 February 2012
Ok I just am not buying it. All of the hyperbole and enthusiasm that we are seeing in oil. Oh sure I will buy the breaks in oil for short term plays but it appears that the next big move on oil may be down. Oil failed to establish a breakout which means we are in a choppy downward correction. Which is amazing considering the Fed promise to keep interest rates low for an eternity and some stronger than expected Official Chinese manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index which in January rose to 50.5 from 50.3 in December and yet another deal to deal with the European crisis but the truth is from a long term position aspect I am not buying It. ... read more Daily Commodities Update: Silver
autochartist.com - 01 February 2012
Jonah S. Ford - A nice technical breakout was spotted by Autochartist in the silver market early in Tuesday’s trading session. Following a prolonged move higher inside of a textbook Channel Up chart pattern, the price of the nearby silver futures turned lower to breach the trend line support and trigger the sell signal.
As shown here on the 240-minute time frame, the Channel Up had provided support and resistance levels for the strong move upward from the $30.50 per ounce level up to the multiple swing highs near $34.00 per ounce. The orderly trade within this trend provided a strong score for the pattern across all measurements. ... read more Daily Forex Update: EUR/USD
autochartist.com - 01 February 2012
Dima Chernovolov - EUR/USD has recently completed the Clear Triangle chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the 4-hour charts. The overall Quality of this chart pattern is measured at the 5 bar level as a result of the low Initial Trend (rated at the 3 bar level), above-average Uniformity (6 bars) and near maximum Clarity (rated at the 8 bar level). This chart pattern continues the prevailing downtrend visible on the daily EUR/USD charts. Both of the connecting points of the upper resistance trendline of this chart pattern (points A and B on the chart below) formed when the pair reversed down from the resistance area lying at the intersection of the previous strong support and now resistance level 1.3200 and the 38,2% Fibonacci Retracement of the preceding sharp daily downward price impulse (as is shown on the second chart below). ... read more Forex - Non-Farm Employment Numbers Today
bforex Research - 01 February 2012
Weak housing data and sluggish consumer confidence in the United States caused investors to dump equities and search for a safer haven with the greenback yesterday. The EUR/USD is down this morning by 0.138% and trading at 1.3066. Gold is down by 0.02% and trading at 1740.05. The Euro took a hit yesterday as investor confidence in the single currency waned after a sharp rise in Portuguese bond yields. Greece also hampered the Euro due to the unresolved private debt restructuring. Despite positive unemployment numbers from Germany, the Euro remains an uncertainty for investors at best. The Czech Republic’s unwillingness to agree with the new European Stability Mechanism was also a sore point. ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 31 January 2012
Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 5 lower at 144’15 and the 10 Yr. Notes 1 lower at 132’00. These markets are still displaying a fear premium due to fear of Greek and Portugese debt. Yesterday the Bonds neared resistance of the 145’16-146’00 level making a high of 145’03. Yields dropped once again to 3.00% on the 30 Yr. and 1.85% on the 10 Yr. evidencing a continued flattening of the yield curve.In spite of this we are spread counter trend, long the 5 Yr. Note/ short the 10 Yr. Note, currently trading at 8’00 ( we put the spread on at 7’23 premium the 10 Yr.) ... read more Horror At The Pump
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 31 January 2012
The Energy Report for Tuesday, January 31st 2012
A gas price horror story is evident at pumps across America as the price, according to the Energy Information Agency, hit the highest level since Halloween. The EIA reports the national average retail price of regular gasoline increased 5 cents a gallon last week, bringing the national average to a whopping $3.439 a gallon. The last time prices went this high demand fell to an 11 year low. Oil prices that are stubbornly staying around $100 a barrel, along with planned and unplanned maintenance at many refineries, is adding to this nightmare on Main Street. ... read more Daily Commodities Update: Cocoa
autochartist.com - 31 January 2012
Jonah S. Ford - Cocoa futures executed a downside breakout in Monday’s session to confirm the first sell signal of the recent strong rally. After gaining nearly $500 per metric ton during the last half of January, profit taking near the $2,500 level has completed a Rising Wedge chart pattern with the breach of support illustrated here by Autochartist.
This Rising Wedge spans the entire price range of the rally and terminates at the breached support level near $2,350 per ton. The sell signal was generated at this level, maintaining a high degree of technical clarity but lacking in momentum. ... read more Daily Forex Update: CHF/JPY
autochartist.com - 31 January 2012
Dima Chernovolov - CHF/JPY has recently completed the Triangle chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the 4-hour charts. The overall Quality of this chart pattern is measured at the 4 bar level which reflects the following values of the individual contributing Quality indicators: low Initial Trend (rated at the 2 bar level), below-average Uniformity (4 bars) and higher Clarity (6 bars). This chart pattern continues the strong medium-term downtrend from the August of 2011 visible on the daily CHF/JPY charts. The top of this chart pattern (point A on the chart below) formed when the pair reversed down from the strong combined resistance made out of the 38,2 % Fibonacci Retracement of the preceding daily downward price impulse, ... read more Daily Fundamental Analysis - USD on the Slide
bforex Research - 31 January 2012
Tuesday morning in Asia has seen a slide in the U.S. Dollar against other major currencies, as investors appear willing to take slightly more risk in the European market. The positive light on the Euro is coming from investor belief that the European Parliament is heading on the proper course to solving the debt crisis. Greece appears to be on the verge of a settling its debt with private lenders, though nothing official has been announced. The EUR/USD is up 0.373% early this morning, trading at 1.3192. The USD is also down against the Aussie, trading at 1.0632. ... read more  USD/JPY Starts a New Bearish Cycle
Forexpros - 31 January 2012
Usd/Jpy made some important breakout in the past sessions, when falling below 76.50 lows and also below red support line, connected from October 2011. In fact, decline is impulsive, so we think that wave E) already accomplished wave (X) triangle at 78.27 and that pair will now continue lower. Currently, wave 1 is in progress, which may find the low around 76 area, and then send prices into a minor corrective wave 2 which will ideally test and then reverse from that red broken trend line. ... read more Th Energy Report - Trying to find the light
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 30 January 2012
Is there any light at the end of this tunnel? Instead of a decisive plan to bailout Greece, questions still linger while we try to decide whether this European crisis will end nicely. It just goes on and on.
Iran also does not seen to be as scary on Monday. Weapon inspections are raising hopes that there may be a resolution to this crisis. It seems that according to the AP, "Iran's official news agency reports that the country's foreign minister has said that inspectors from the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog can extend an ongoing visit to the Islamic Republic." ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 30 January 2012
Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 1’09 higher at 144’23 and the 10 Yr. Note 13 higher at 132’04. Greece and Portugal are once again in the news as talks will take place later in the week on how to resolve several issues including how much of a “haircut” Greek bondholders will have to take. Long term resistance on the Bonds is once again the 145’16-146’00 area. On Friday we once again put on the long 5 Yr. Note / short 10 Yr. Note spread above the 7’22 level premium the 10 Yr. Note. This morning the spread is against us, trading at 8’03.
Grains: Over night Mar. Beans traded 14’2 lower at 1204’6, Mar. Corn 7’6 lower at 634’0 and Mar. Wheat 5’6 lower at 641’4. ... read more Weekly Commodities Update: Gold
autochartist.com - 30 January 2012
Jonah S. Ford - Gold futures resumed their upward climb in last week’s trading, moving significantly above the $1,700 per ounce key level support. The overall chart analysis suggests the buyers are still in command of this market as the steady climb has yet to see any meaningful price retracement. While this bodes well for the longer term, Autochartist has detected a formidable resistance level at the $1,740 level which did manage to cap the week’s gains.
After marching steadily higher in the uptrend phase of a Channel Up chart pattern, gold pulled back softly to set up a pivot point within the formation. ... read more Weekly Forex Update: HKD/JPY
autochartist.com - 30 January 2012
Dima Chernovolov - HKD/JPY has recently completed the Flag chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the daily charts. The overall Quality of this chart pattern is measured at the 7 bar level which is the result of the strong Initial trend (rated at the 10 bar level), low Uniformity (3 bars) and above average Clarity (6 bars). The completion of this chart pattern continues the predominant downtrend visible on the daily and the weekly HKD/JPY charts. More specifically, this Flag follows the preceding sharp downward price impulse (being the “Flag-Pole” of this Flag, ... read more Daily Fundamental Analysis - Oil and Gold Decline Surprisingly
bforex Research - 30 January 2012
Oil continues to decline for the second day after the latest round of talks by European officials. Crude oil is down in Asian trading this morning, valued at 99.02 USD per barrel. The Word Economic Forum, currently taking place in Davos Switzerland, saw Greece and Germany butting heads on the conditions for the next bailout which must be implemented before March, when Greece is required to pay a bond payment of over 14 billion Euros. Germany wants more oversight and veto power on Greek fiscal policy, which is considered unacceptable by Greek politicians. The price of oil is dropping, regardless of the continued threats by Iran regarding the Straits of Hormuz. ... read more Daily Commodities Update: Corn
autochartist.com - 30 January 2012
Jonah S. Ford - A choppy and volatile month of January is drawing to a close on a slight bullish note for the grain futures markets. Led by strength in the corn futures, the broader complex turned higher in what appears to be an effort to cement the month’s sell-off as a long-term swing low. Corn pushed back above the $6.40 per bushel level to confirm the modest breakout spotted here by Autochartist.
This breakout from the apex of a Triangle chart pattern shows up on the 30-minute completed patterns platform. ... read more Daily Forex Update: USD/SEK
autochartist.com - 30 January 2012
Dima Chernovolov - USD/SEK continues to decline inside the Descending Triangle chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the 4-hour charts. The overall Quality of this chart pattern is measured at the 7 bar level which reflects high Initial trend (rated at the maximum 10 bar level), significant Uniformity (6 bars) and average Clarity (5 bars). This chart pattern reverses the previous upward correction to the preceding sharp weekly downward price impulse. ... read more Forex - Dollar Headed Lower in Coming Weeks
Forexpros - 29 January 2012
A sharp fall from 81.80 area seen in the past few weeks is impulsive, which means that we have a temporary top in place, likely of a wave I, which was an expanding diagonal. That is a type of a motive wave, where structure allows overlap between waves four and one. With this being said, at least three waves of a pull-back is now underway within wave two, which will ideally reach 50-61.8% retracement area and then reverse. ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 27 January 2012
Financials: Mar. Bonds are curently 3 higher at 142’30 and the 10 Yr. Notes5 higher at 131’19. This morning’s GDP was up 2.8% vs. expectations of 3.0%. Consumer spending was up 2.0% pretty much in line with expectations. The long 5 Yr. Note/ short 10 Yr. Note spread is currently at 7’20 premium the 10 Yr. Note. I will once again be willing to do this spread if it widens above 7’22.0 premium the 10 Yr. Note.
Grains: Yesterday Mar. Beans closed 9 cents higher, Mar. Corn unchanged and Mar. Wheat 12 higher. Over night Beans were unchanged, Corn 4 higher and Wheat 1 lower. ... read more The Energy Report - Credit Where Credit Redux
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 27 January 2012
After President Obama's State of the Union speech, I questioned whether the President was trying to take credit for the amazing advances in technologies that has been made in energy production over the last decade. In an article I titled, "Giving Credit Where Credit Is Due", I asked why the Obama tried to take credit for the work of others when he said, "it was public research dollars, over the course of thirty years, that helped develop the technologies to extract all this natural gas out of shale rock - ... read more Daily Commodities Update: Silver
autochartist.com - 27 January 2012
Jonah S. Ford - Silver futures pulled back slightly in Thursday’s session after a strong run for the week. The retracement is occurring after a touch of resistance provided by a Triangle chart pattern forming on the 30-minute time interval. Autochartist is tracking the developments on the emerging patterns platform, with a projection for a continued short-term decline to the support trend line near $33.40 per ounce.
The Triangle chart pattern is clearly defined already, but also has plenty of room for the price to trade inside the range as it approaches the apex. ... read more Daily Forex Update: AUD/NZD
autochartist.com - 27 January 2012
Dima Chernovolov - AUD/NZD continues to decline after completing the Uniform Triangle chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the hourly charts. The overall Quality of this Triangle is rated at the 6 bar level as a result of the average Initial Trend and Clarity (both measured at the 5 bar level) and higher Uniformity (7 bars). This chart pattern follows the preceding daily downward price impulse from the combined resistance area lying at the intersection of the 61,8% Fibonacci Retracement of the previous sharp downward price impulse from the major long-term level of resistance 1.3600 (which had previously reversed the pair down in the August of 2000) and the upward resistance trendline (former long-term support trendline from September of 2009 broken by the aforementioned previous downward price impulse from 1.3600, ... read more Daily Fundamental Analysis - Oil Reaches Weekly High
bforex Research - 27 January 2012
Iran is attempting to take measures in response to the EU oil trade embargo even before the ban takes effect in July. The ban on Iranian oil was approved on Monday to the chagrin of several Middle East countries along with China and Russia. The United States has commended the EU for the ban. Iranian officials are pointing an accusing finger towards Saudi Arabia, which has promised to fill the gap in demand for oil by the west when the ban commences. Iran has asked other OPEC members to place pressure on Saudi Arabic, with limited success. Crude oil is up this morning in trading by 0.08%, valued at 99.78 USD per barrel. ... read more The Grain Report - Month-End Analysis
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 26 January 2012
Tim Hannagan is one of the nation’s most prominent grain analysts. His report for Thursday, Jan. 26:
Thursday's weekly export sales report put corn sales a week ago at 958 thousand metric tons, making it a second consecutive strong week. Drought-stricken Mexico was in for 264 thousand in the eighth consecutive week of heavy Mexican purchases. Their drought is now considered the worst since records have been kept.
This will lend to talk ahead of the February 9 USDA monthly crop report that the report will raise U.S. export projections for 2012, and that will reduce already very tight ending stocks. ... read more The Energy Report - Giving Credit where Credit is Due
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 26 January 2012
I have to Obama credit for making the shale gas and oil revolution part of his State of the Union Address. Yet at the same time, I fail to understand why he wants to take credit for it as opposed to giving the credit where it is deserved and that is with the US energy industry. Indeed, the President was right when he said, "Nowhere is the promise of innovation greater than in American made energy. Over the last three years, we’ve opened millions of new acres for oil and gas exploration, and tonight, I’m directing my Administration to open more than 75 percent of our potential offshore oil and gas resources. ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 26 January 2012
Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 22 higher at 142’15 and the 10 Yr. Note14 higher at 131’06. This morning’s weekly Jobless Claims showed an increase of 21,000 vs. expectations of an increase of 23,000. Durable Goods were up 3.0% vs. average expectations of an increase of 2.0%. Yesterday the FOMC announced NO change in interest rates. Their expectations were that inflation will remain below 2.0% through mid to late 2014 and consequently rate targets will remain low through 2014. One thing I have learned, DON’T FADE THE FED. The results of yesterday’s pronouncement was a rally from the 141’00 level to 143’16 and back to 142’00. ... read more Daily Fundamental Analysis - U.S. Rates Remain the Unchanged
bforex Research - 26 January 2012
Big news out of the United States took place yesterday during the FOMC Press Conference. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced that interest rates will remain at 0.25% and will probably not change until at least 2014. This announcement came after the conclusion of a two day policy meeting which saw law makers still frustrated over the slow recovery of the economy. The EUR/USD is up this morning by 0.122% and trading at 1.3123. The GBP/USD is up as well by 0.061% and trading at 1.5667. ... read more Daily Commodities Update: Palladium
autochartist.com - 26 January 2012
Jonah S. Ford - Palladium futures may take a cue from the rest of the precious metals sector as the week progresses. Gold and silver both surged higher in Wednesday’s session while palladium touched a major support level after setting a new multi-month low on the chart. Such a divergence is often temporary, and palladium’s price action shown here on the Autochartist 240-minute time frame suggests a turn-around is highly possible. ... read more Daily Forex Update: USD/JPY
autochartist.com - 26 January 2012
Dima Chernovolov - USD/JPY has recently completed the extended Triangle chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the daily charts. The length of this chart pattern is equal to 251 candles. Autochartist rates the overall Quality of this Triangle at the 6 bar level as a result of the average Initial Trend (rated at the 5 bar level), substantial Uniformity (8 bars) and above-average Clarity (6 bars). Higher Uniformity and Length increase the visibility of this chart pattern which heightens the likelihood of the further follow-thought buying of this pair in the nearest time. ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 25 January 2012
Financials: Mar. Bonds are 7 higher at 141’13 and the 10 Yr. Notes 5 higher at 130’08. Yields are once again above 3% on the Bonds and above 2% on the 10 Yr. Note. Today is the 2nd day of the two day FOMC meeting. As is usual there should be an interest rate announcement at 1:15. I expect no change. I remain on the sidelines.
Grains: Yesterday Mar. beans closed 2’4 higher, Mar. Corn 10’2 higher and Mar. Wheat 13’6 higher. ... read more The Energy Report - Giving Credit where Credit is Due
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 25 January 2012
I have to Obama credit for making the shale gas and oil revolution part of his State of the Union Address. Yet at the same time, I fail to understand why he wants to take credit for it as opposed to giving the credit where it is deserved and that is with the US energy industry. Indeed, the President was right when he said, "Nowhere is the promise of innovation greater than in American made energy. Over the last three years, we’ve opened millions of new acres for oil and gas exploration, and tonight, I’m directing my Administration to open more than 75 percent of our potential offshore oil and gas resources. ... read more Less Rain
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 25 January 2012
Tim Hannagan is one of the nation’s most prominent grain analysts. His report for Tuesday, Jan. 24:
When we went home Friday, the forecast called for good rains forecasted over all of Argentina and southern Brazil. It turned out rains missed many of the areas and were half or less of what was expected.
We have opened higher at the start of six consecutive weeks now.
The La Niña weather pattern that's led to the drought-like conditions in South America has lived up to its potential. When it's dry, it's very dry and when rain is called for, It's always far under estimates. ... read more Daily Commodities Update: Cocoa
autochartist.com - 25 January 2012
Jonah S. Ford - Cocoa futures exploded higher in Tuesday’s trading session to gain nearly $130 per metric ton for the day. This surge triggered a technical breakout from the Triangle chart pattern shown here on Autochartist’s 240-minute time interval. Given the extraordinary momentum of the move so far, it is likely we will see a continuation of the move towards the forecast target price in Wednesday’s session.
Cocoa had been trading in a mostly sideways range for the last several weeks, bouncing between the support and resistance levels created by the Triangle chart pattern. ... read more Daily Forex Update: GBP/CAD
autochartist.com - 25 January 2012
Dima Chernovolov - GBP/CAD continues to fall inside the extended Rectangle chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the 15-minute charts. The length of this chart pattern is equal to 213 candles. The overall Quality of this chart pattern is rated at the 3 bar level reflecting the low Initial Trend (one bar), slightly higher Uniformity (3 bars) and above-average Clarity (6 bars). This chart pattern continues the predominant downtrend visible on the daily and the weekly GBP/CAD charts. More specifically, this chart pattern continues the previous daily downward price impulse from the strong level of resistance 1.6400, which had been reversing upward impulses of this currency pair from the August of 2010 (as is shown on the second chart below). ... read more Daily Fundamental Analysis - IMF Warns of Global Slowdown
bforex Research - 25 January 2012
Yesterday wasn’t the day to be overly optimistic about the global markets, if we put in faith in the belief of the IMF, which predicts that the global economy will expand by 3.3% in 2012, down 0.5% from the previous year. The IMF has also stated that the Euro Zone economy could decline by as much as 4% and experience at least a mild recession. Greece is expected to default in the next few weeks, with Spain and Italy also in the dog house, with an expected contraction of 1.7% and 2.2% this year. The IMF remains adamant that global growth will slow in 2012 but that markets will remain intact. ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 24 January 2012
Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 11 higher at 141’16 and the 10 Yr. Notes 4 higher at 130’03. Yesterday the market broke support of 141’16 making a five week low of 140’21 only to bounce back to the 141’16 level. We have taken profits on the long 5 Yr. Note/ short 10 Yr. Note spread. With tonight’s State of the Union address and the 2 day FOMC meeting I am inclined to choose the sidelines.
Grains: Yesterday Mar. Beans closed 30 cents higher, Mar. Corn 8 higher and Mar. Wheat 9 higher. ... read more The Energy Report - Bluster Fluster
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 24 January 2012
What do you mean the Straits of Hormuz are open? How could this be?! Did Iran not promise to shut down the Straits of Hormuz if Europe dared to impose sanctions on this rouge state? Well yesterday after agreeing to help Greece make up financially for the replacement of that cheap Iranian oil, the EU actually got the gumption to agree on an Iranian oil embargo. Now we are just waiting for Iran to follow through on their bold prediction that shutting down the straits of Hormuz would be as easy as drinking a cup of water. Come on now Iran, show us how it's done. ... read more Daily Commodities Update: Brent Crude Oil
autochartist.com - 24 January 2012
Jonah S. Ford - Bullish news for the oil markets led the trading action on Monday, as the confirmation of the EU embargo plans for Iran were met with renewed threats by that nation to close the Strait of Hormuz. The result was a firming of the recent uptrend in Brent Crude Oil futures to set the stage for a possible sharp rally as the week progresses. Chart analysis reveals the major signal for a continuation may be a run at the top of the Flag chart pattern identified by Autochartist and illustrated here. ... read more Daily Forex Update: EUR/GBP
autochartist.com - 24 January 2012
Dima Chernovolov - EUR/GBP continues to rise sharply inside the Uniform Ascending Triangle chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the 4-hour charts. Autochartist rates the overall Quality of this chart pattern at the 7 bar level as a result of the above-average Initial Trend (measured at the 6 bar level), high Uniformity (9 bars) and significant Clarity (7 bars). Higher Uniformity reflects even distribution of the connecting points of the upper and the lower trendlines of this Ascending Triangle. Both of the connecting points of the upper resistance trendline of this chart pattern (points A and B on the chart below) formed when the pair reversed down from the horizontal resistance level 0.8379, identified by Autochartist (as is shown on the second Key Levels chart below). ... read more Daily Fundamental Analysis - Iran Slapped with EU Trade Sanctions
bforex Research - 24 January 2012
Despite predictions that a European embargo on Iran was several days or even weeks away, yesterday’s news that an EU embargo on Iranian oil was approved by Brussels did not catch too many people by surprise. Iran’s currency, the rial, experienced a death stroke on Monday, losing 10% of its value after the news hit the markets. The ban will take effect on July 1, providing weaker EU economies with some time to procure oil from different sources. The United States, buoyed by the European decision, has blacklisted Bank Tejarat, one of the few Iranian banks conducting business with the West. ... read more Gold Now Looking Bullish For 1st Half of 2012
Forexpros - 23 January 2012
Gold made a sharp and even impulsive rally from its recent lows towards the falling trend from from 1920. This type of a price action and the wave structure is showing early but very important signs of a completed corrective pull-back in wave IV. So the next key level for a bullish advance will be a decisive break of that trend line and also then of 1800 wave (B) resistance. ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 23 January 2012
Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 13 lower at 141’15 and the 10 Yr. Notes 5 lower at 130’03. I feel that the Bonds are currently in support in the 141’16 area as mentioned Friday. The long 5 Yr. Note/ short 10 Yr. Note spread is now trading at 7’01 premium the 10 Yr. Note which is slightly below my target of 7’05 or lower. Take profits on this spread if you remain in the position.
Grains: On Friday Mar. Beans closed 10 cents lower at 1187’0, Mar. Corn 5’4 higher at 611’4 and Mar. Wheat 4’6 higher at 610’4. ... read more The Energy Report - Deal Or No Deal!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 23 January 2012
Wheeling and dealing dominate the energy market as it desperately seeks direction. Will there be a deal on Greece? Or will Europe actually cut a deal to follow through on a deal to embargo Iran's precious oil. And if they do, will it be tough enough?
The AP reports that, "the European Union formally adopted an oil embargo Monday against Iran and a freeze of the assets of the country's central bank as part of sanctions meant to pressure the country to resume talks on its nuclear program. ... read more Daily Commodities Update: US Treasury Bonds
autochartist.com - 23 January 2012
Jonah S. Ford - US Treasury Bond futures have drifted lower inside a narrow range to form a textbook Falling Wedge chart pattern. This pattern, illustrated here on the Autochartist 30-minute time interval, shows a well defined 3-point range of the market with the apex of the wedge fast approaching. This portends a potential technical breakout early in the week ahead.
After spring-boarding from the 141.75 price support at the bottom of the Falling Wedge chart pattern, T-bonds are poised for another retest of resistance near 142.00 points. ... read more Daily Forex Update: CAD/CHF
autochartist.com - 23 January 2012
Dima Chernovolov - CAD/CHF has completed the Clear Up Channel chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the daily charts. The overall Quality of this chart pattern is rated at the 7 bar level as a result of the below average Initial Trend (measured at the 4 bar level), substantial Uniformity (8 bars) near maximum Clarity (9 bars). This chart pattern continues the predominant downtrend visible on the daily and the weekly CAD/CHF charts. The top of this Up Channel (point B on the chat below) formed when the pair reversed down from the strong level of resistance 0.9400. The downward reversal from point B led to the sharp Breakout of the lower support trendline of this chart pattern. ... read more Weekly Commodities Update: Gold
autochartist.com - 23 January 2012
Jonah S. Ford - Gold futures completed an impressive rally to reach a key target level during last week’s trading. The week ahead will be important for determining whether this is a short term uptrend or the beginning of a major leg higher on the chart. After breaking out of the Falling Wedge chart pattern identified here on the Autochartist 60-minute time frame, the market moved easily towards the forecast price range. The move as measured from the swing low inside the Falling Wedge level to Friday’s close amounts to better than a $20 per ounce gain for gold without a retracement. ... read more Weekly Forex Update: USD/NOK
autochartist.com - 23 January 2012
Dima Chernovolov - USD/NOK has recently completed the high Quality Up Channel chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the daily charts. The overall Quality of this chart pattern is measured at the 8 bar level which reflects the following values of the contributing Quality indicators: significant Initial Trend (rated at the 7 bar level) and near maximum Uniformity and Clarity (both rated at the 9 bar level). This chart pattern reverses the previous upward correction to the prevailing downtrend visible on the daily and the weekly USD/NOK charts. ... read more Daily Fundamental Analysis - Oil Continues to Decline
bforex Research - 23 January 2012
Energy is down this morning this morning in Asian markets as traders resume activities after the weekend. Crude oil is down 0.22%, trading at 98.11 USD per barrel. Many analysts predict that the price of oil is not expected to decline by any significant amount as political unrest in Nigeria, an impending trade embargo on Iran and the refusal of the Obama administration to approve the North American oil pipeline will cause energy prices to increase. Gold and silver are on the rise, with gold trading at 0.50% higher at 1672.35. Silver is trading at 32.328 this morning, up by 2.08%. ... read more Euro and Cable: Temporary Recovery
Forexpros - 22 January 2012
EUR/USD:
A rally this past week through a falling trend line connected from 1.425 top suggests that an impulsive wave (1) is finished and that a larger corrective pull-back is underway.This is a blue wave (2), which must be subdivided by three legs before we may look for a downtrend continuation again. Nice resistance/reversal area for this wave (2) comes in at the 1.3200-1.3500 range! ... read more Weather Trading
Tim Hannagan I PFGBEST - 20 January 2012
Tim Hannagan is one of the nation’s most prominent grain analysts. His report for Friday, Jan. 20:
Tuesday saw traders buying grains on the drier than expected weekend rains in South America, and dry weather into Thursday. Then traders turned and sold grains Wednesday as the coming weekend forecast called for another system of rain to enter South America. As always, this time of year, when our grains are locked up on the farm and the wheat is dormant, we turn to South America growing season weather for trading psychology. It's all about the next weather report. ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 20 January 2012
Financials: Mar. Bonds are curently 12 lower at 142’14 and the 10 Yr. Notes 7 lower at 130’16. Continued optimism that a deal will be struck concerning Greek debt has eroded the fear premium in Bonds. I expect this market will find support in the 141’16 area. We remain spread long the 5 Yr. Note/ short the 10 Yr. Note which is currently trading at 7’09 premium the 10 Yr. Note. My objective for the near term is the 7’05 level, at which point I recommend taking profits.
Grains: Yesterday Mar. Beans closed 13 cents higher, Mar. Corn 12 higher and Mar. Wheat 13 higher. Over night Beans were 3 lower, Corn unchanged and Wheat 2 higer. ... read more The Energy Report - Decompress
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 20 January 2012
It looks like oil traders are ready for the weekend after a period of high anxiety and conflicting data it now appears the market is trying to calm down a bit. Oil did seem to react to the PMI report that showed China's manufacturing activity contracted for the third straight month in January. Of course for oil that is a doubled edged sword. While weaker manufacturing in the short run may reduce demand expectations, in the big picture it is bullish because it basically ensures us that the Chinese government will move to stimulate the economy. ... read more Daily Commodities Update: Heating Oil
autochartist.com - 20 January 2012
Jonah S. Ford - Heating Oil futures ended Thursday’s session on a firm note, portending a possible rally into the weekend. The current price is off the lows and approximately in the center of a Flag chart pattern, identified here on the Autochartist 240-minute time frame under the emerging patterns platform.
The $3.00 per gallon level has provided major long term support for this market as crude oil volatility continues swinging the energy complex in a broad but stabile range. ... read more Daily Forex Update: USD/DKK
autochartist.com - 20 January 2012
Dima Chernovolov - Autochartist has recently identified the Clear Up Channel chart pattern on the daily USD/DKK chart. The overall Quality of this Up Channel is measured at the 6 bar level which reflects the following values of the individual contributing Quality indicators: low Initial Trend (rated at the 3 bar level), above-average Uniformity (6 bars) and near maximum Clarity (9 bars). Low Initial Trend corresponds to the sideways price movement which preceded this Up Channel and which developed as the price approached the support at 5.1000 (the bottom of this chart pattern, at point C, formed close to this level). ... read more Daily Fundamental Analysis - Positive Employment Numbers in the U.S.
bforex Research - 20 January 2012
Asian stocks continued their rise this morning, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) up by 1.1 percent. Asian markets produced a strong showing in part due to a positive Jobless Claims report from the United States and successful European debt sales earlier this week. The USD/JPY is up this morning by 0.075% at 77.17, while the EUR/JPY is up by 0.119% at 100.12.
Unemployment rate down in the U.S.
Some very positive news for the job market in the United States yesterday, with stats showing a decrease in jobless claims by roughly 50,000 over the last month. ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 19 January 2012
Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 18 lower at 143’20 and the 10 Yr. Note 7 lower at 131’01. This mornings Weekly Jobless Claims were down 50,000 vs. expectations of down 19K. Housing Starts were up 4.1%, better than expectations. The market has a bit of confidence that for the near term problems in Europe are beginning to come under control as short term rates have dropped in Italy and Spain. It is also exoected that a deal will happen for refunding in Greece. This has eroded some of the safety premium in the Bonds, taking them from yesterday’s high of 145’13 to current levels. We remain spread long the 5 Yr. Note/ short the 10 Yr. Note. ... read more The Energy Report - Insulting
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 19 January 2012
Perhaps the most disturbing slap in the face to the oil industry by the most anti-energy US President in history was made with the statement by Obama in his denial of the application for the building of the Keystone Pipeline when he said, "Under my Administration, domestic oil and natural gas production is up, while imports of foreign oil are down." Yet anyone that follows the energy industry knows that this is not because of the President but in spite of him. ... read more Daily Commodities Update: Live Cattle
autochartist.com - 19 January 2012
Jonah S. Ford - Live Cattle futures completed a successful retest of resistance in Wednesday’s trading session. The move up to the $123.00 per hundredweight price furthers the development of the Descending Wedge chart pattern illustrated here on the Autochartist 240-minute emerging patterns platform.
This pattern appears to be in its early stages of development, with a broad price range between the upper and lower trend lines as well as a long span between the current price and the termination area of the wedge. ... read more Daily Forex Update: CHF/JPY
autochartist.com - 19 January 2012
Dima Chernovolov - CHF/JPY has recently completed the Uniform Triangle chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the 4-hour charts. Autochartist rates the overall Quality of this Triangle at the 5 bar level as a result of the low Initial Trend (measured at the 3 bar level), high Uniformity (8 bars) and average Clarity (5 bars). Both of the connecting points of the lower support trendline of this chart pattern (points C and D on the chart below) formed when the pair reversed up from the support area close to the round price level 80.00. The pair has recently broken up through the upper resistance trendline of this Triangle with the Breakout, whose strength is measured at the maximum, 10 bar level. ... read more Daily Fundamental Analysis - IMF Seeks to Increase Bailout Fund
bforex Research - 19 January 2012
Asian stocks are up this morning in response to the positive news that the IMF is seeking to increase its bailout fund resources by 1 trillion USD. It is not immediately clear where this massive influx of cash will come from, but investors are nevertheless buoyed by the prospect. The MSCI gauge increase by 0.9 percent, while the Hang Seng was up by 1.6 percent. Commodities are also on the rise in trading today thus far, with Gold up by 0.27%, currently at 1664.45 and Crude Oil up by 0.75%, trading at 101.52 USD per barrel. ... read more Gas Nation!
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 18 January 2012
The Energy Report for Wednesday, January 18, 2012
The Natural Gas Frac attack continues to rewrite energy history. Natural gas prices continue to plummet as global warming continues to favor us and the techniques in the energy industry continues to drive down natural gas prices. The winter strip for natural gas prices are at a 10 year low while supplies hover at an all time high for this time of year. In fact the front month natural gas contract is within shooting distance of taking out the November, 2009 low of $2.409 low and if taken out, could lead to the test of the $2.000 area. ... read more The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
Marc Nemenoff I PRICE Group - 18 January 2012
Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 4 lower at 145’01 and the 10 Yr. Note2 lower at 131’17. The yield on the 30 Yr. is now 2.91% and the yield on the 10 Yr. 1.87%. I remain opn the sidelines, but will do the long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread if the Bonds trade at 146’00. We continue to hold the long 5 Yr. Note/ short 10 Yr. Note spread.
Grains: Yesterday Mar. Beans closed 25 cents higher, Mar. Corn 4’4 higher and Mar. Wheat 2’4 higher. Over night Beans were down 7, Corn about 4 lower and Wheat 4 lower. ... read more Daily Commodities Update: Corn
autochartist.com - 18 January 2012
Jonah S. Ford - Corn futures settled Tuesday’s trading session at the middle of a large Triangle chart pattern now forming above the key $6.00 per bushel level. The Triangle is shown here as identified on the Autochartist emerging patterns platform, with each candle on the chart representing 30 minutes of trading.
The pattern now developing reflects the long term uncertainty for corn, with the price action treading water inside of the support and resistance levels provided. As the price reaches the apex of the Triangle chart pattern, the range continues to narrow to suggest an equilibrium point near $6.05 per bushel. ... read more Daily Forex Update: GBP/JPY
autochartist.com - 18 January 2012
Dima Chernovolov - GBP/JPY has recently completed the Uniform Falling Wedge chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the 4-hour charts. The overall Quality of this chart pattern is measured at the 7 bar level as a result of the sharp Initial Trend (whose strength is rated at the near maximum 9 bar level), substantial Uniformity (8 bars) and low Clarity (3 bars). The completion of this chart pattern continues the preceding upward price move from the major level of support at 117.00. The bottom of this Falling Wedge (point D on the chart below) formed close to this support level. ... read more Daily Fundamental Analysis - Successful Bond Sales in Europe
bforex Research - 18 January 2012
After several days of humiliation and controversy, the EU seems to be rebounding after successful bond sales by EFSF and several other Euro Zone members, including Greece and Spain, were held yesterday. It was just last Friday when the rating agency Standard & Poor’s lowered the credit rating of nine Euro Zone members, including France. On Tuesday, the EFSF was also downgraded. The debt auction that took place yesterday was considered a success however, and should shed a positive light on the Euro. The EUR/USD, EUR/CHF and the EUR/JPY all increased today in trading so far, with the EUR/JPY up by 0.063 percent at 97.92. ... read more Suicide watch
Phil Flynn I PFGBEST - 17 January 2012
The Energy Report for Tuesday, January 17th 2012
The global oil markets are still focused on whether or not the Iranian regime intends to continue on the path to oblivion as they continue to provoke the globe with their irrational behavior. Add to that the threats they are making to Saudi Arabia and we're seeing the oil market heat up just as China's perfect GDP number heats up.
China's GDP hit its slowest pace in two years but it was not as not as bad as feared, giving oil bulls the best of both worlds. ... read more |
